Welcome to All Hallows Eve, also known as Samhain, one of the many, many, pagan celebrations and symbols to be adopted and Christianized. Now it’s really just a costume party often in questionable taste (Sexy Actuary!) and a chance for kids to play dress up and eat too much candy. I personally really love to put together costumes, particularly ones that look like real clothes. You may or may not be surprised to learn I can often accomplish this from my own closet. No one necessarily recognizes me as JRR Tolkien, or something, but the tweeds are real.
As for candy and other treats (about 30% of trick or treaters preferred stickers in my limited sample) we’re going to look at some of the treats for the Rockets this season, with, again, about 5% played. This is a very small sample. I also wonder about the error rate, or would be interested in some more granularity in the 10 Games Is A Predictive Sample viewpoint. That is, is it less predictive when adding new players? What about teams that turn it on late?
Anyhow, that’s something for deep in August sometime. Right now we’re approaching the turning of the year, the doorway to winter and darkness, and the dawning of The Day Of The Dead. Or All Saints Day, a time of remembrance and reflection. But we aren’t there yet! There’s still time to party, to make questionable decisions, to eat a ton of sugar because it doesn’t actually count if it’s teensy, and it doesn’t add up.
Treat One – Kevin Durant is as advertised. The Rockets needed a reliable scorer, a guy who could get his own basket, who could exist in what we will lovingly call a Rudimentary Offensive Scheme. They got him. Durantula is averaging (roughly) 28pts/6rbs/2ast/1stl/1blk in 36 minutes per game (skewed a good bit by the double OT opener). His assist rate is down from his career average of 4.4 (though often higher in recent years, it is after all 19 NBA seasons. I think this will increase with more familiarity with his teammates. His efficiency is great – .654 True Shooting, 58% from two point range and 37% from three. He’s averaging nearly 10FT per game, which is fantastic. Anyhow, Kevin Durant is still KD, the Slim Reaper, as is appropriate for the night.
Treat Two – EuroBasket Sengun is translating to the NBA. Not every game, but the NBA is starting to look a lot like the incredible EuroBasket tourney for Alpie. Turkey wasn’t predicted to do well, but largely due to Alpie’s brilliant they knocked off two NBA MVPs in Jokic and Giannis on their way to a EuroBasket Finals loss to Germany. Alpie showed a very smooth 3 point set shot, and he still seems to have it. He’s stronger and more confident around the basket, and with Durant around the “Collapse on Sengun, dare the Rockets to shoot.” strategy is doomed. But not just because of Durant.
Treat Three – This is the Jabari Smith Jr we expected when he was drafted. Remember, though, Jabari was drafted into the NBA having turned 19 years old in May. He was basically still a kid in a lot of ways. He was a very tall kid (but now a bit taller maybe?) but not a muscled up NBA player. He is one now. His strength in grabbing boards, and playing through contact is evidence. His movements are stronger and more assured, and his handle is much improved. There are times when, dare I say it, he looks a lot like his teammate Kevin Durant with the buttery smooth and soft midrange shot he can loft over nearly anyone. (We have to have this caveat now because Wemby exists and makes 6’10” guys look small.) His defense is still good, but he’s playing everywhere with force and confidence. He’s shooting 2s, 3s, and FTs well. He hasn’t grabbed his usual number of boards, but this is a strong rebounding team. It looks like a breakthrough for Jabari.
Treat Four – Josh Okogie is…decent? We still haven’t seen Dorian Finney-Smith, but that’s given Ime Udoka’s Authorial Insertion Character Josh Okogie a chance to, wait, what, start? I’m not sure this is a long term thing, but the switch away from starting and lots of minutes for the two center lineup has been good. It’s better to spring that on opponents. In the meantime, Okogie is a tenacious defender one on one. He can make an open three. He has weird awkward basket attacks that lead to free throws quite often. He doesn’t require a lot of shots, or much of the ball. So far, so good.
Treat Five – For a team that essentially lost three starters – Jalen, Dillon and FVV, the Rockets don’t look bad. Right now they have a top offense and a below average defense (though the sample is small and the middle of the defensive pack is of much of a muchness). We can hope the offensive trend continues. I believe the defense will improve, though. The Rockets built up to their fantastic defense last season. It’s a sophisticated, complex defense that requires a lot of communication. They lost their middle linebacker, so to speak, with Fred VanVleet (and I imagine Brooks as well). It’s going to take time to achieve that level of defensive connection. It’s also probably not going to be quite the same with a 37 year old KD on the court. Like a lot of things this season, some patience is required. I think the Rockets might finish top ten in both offense and defense, but it’s a work in progress. Check back at the Winter Solstice.
With that, Five Out departs until November.
Leave a candle in the window.