The top teams

The first three one-seeds were pretty straightforward. Both UCLA and UConn make a convincing number one overall seed, but I believe UCLA has the top seven-player rotation in the country this year. However, UCLA has a daunting non-conference schedule on top of Big Ten play, while the Big East is shaping up to be potentially less competitive than usual this year.

The fourth one-seed is where it gets tricky — I can truly see a three-team race between Oklahoma, Duke and Texas. But right now, the spot goes to Oklahoma, who bring back their top three and add one of the best freshmen in the country, Aaliyah Chavez. Texas lacks three-point shooting and Duke lost two of their top four scorers, making Oklahoma the best choice of the three.

The last few hosting spots go to TCU and Mississippi, instead of Iowa or Kentucky. The success both TCU Head Coach Mark Campbell and Mississippi Head Coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin have had in building their teams using the transfer portal leads me to believe both teams can win enough big games to earn hosting spots.

The mid-majors

Two mid-major leagues should be able to send multiple teams to the tournament. The Ivy League got three in last year, I project that it will send two this year with Princeton and Columbia. The A-10 will also likely send two this year, if Richmond and George Mason have strong seasons again. I also predict South Dakota State will once again get seeded above the bubble — they could even receive a single-digit seed. I would’ve seeded South Florida higher, but Jose Fernandez leaving for the Dallas Wings gives me some pause.

For the bubble, I project a toss-up between strong mid-majors and power four schools, with a lot of questions. Miami, Colorado, Florida State, and Illinois all have a significant number of new faces from the transfer portal, and it’s too early to tell how that will affect those teams’ performances and competitiveness. Both Columbia and George Mason have strong returning casts and difficult non-conference schedules, and both could be two of last four teams. Miami has added significant talent from the transfer portal, and Colorado has a returning star player, which could help them punch a ticket as well.

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5 Games that will have the greatest impact on the bracket in November:

Nov. 4: NC State vs Tennessee
Nov. 10: UCLA vs Oklahoma
Nov. 21: USC vs Notre Dame
Nov. 21: UConn vs Michigan
Nov. 27-28: Players Era Tournament, involving Duke, South Carolina, Texas and UCLA

Mid-major game of the month:

Nov. 15: Richmond vs Columbia

Bracketology methodology:

I used the NCAA’s guidelines to the best of my abilities to build my bracket. Here are some important places where I had to make adjustments.

NCAA Rule: The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16.

My adjustment: This rule is impossible to follow, as evidenced by the placement of SEC teams in my bracket).

NCAA Rule: Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or until the Sweet 16 if they met twice.

My adjustment: I was able to follow this rule until the Elite Eight, except for one possible exception, but it would require an upset win. I also assumed every conference team will face each other once more than what is on their schedule.

NCAA Rule: It is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line.

My adjustment: The only move I made was to bring Vanderbilt up one seed line to avoid them playing a conference opponent in the second round.

TLDR: Bracket breakdown

Multi-bid conferences:

Big Ten: 12

ACC: 10

SEC: 9

Big 12: 8

Big East: 2

A-10: 2

Ivy League: 2

Last four in:

University of Miami, University of Colorado Boulder, George Mason University, Columbia University

First four out:

Florida State University, University of Illinois, University of Florida, Villanova University

Next four out:

Texas Tech University, Seton Hall University, University of California Berkeley, Indiana University

Check back in on Dec. 2 for an update on the bracket.

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