The evolution of how NBA teams navigate their first-round draft picks remains a fascinating story. Look no further than this year’s draft.
In the 2025 NBA Draft, more than half the league (17 teams) will not own their first-round selection. After the top 14, only three teams (Orlando, Indiana, and Boston) will choose a prospect with their draft pick. Additionally, these numbers don’t include any potential mid-draft trades that may occur.
There are two key questions surrounding the state of first-rounders in the NBA. First, is what fans are seeing in 2025, perception or reality? Second, if it is indeed more of a perception, why?
Here is what 25 years of NBA Draft history have to say.
Ownership of Lottery Picks By the Numbers
Historically speaking, just under a third of the top-14 first-round picks in a given draft are owned by another team.
Including this year, the average number of lottery picks that another team has possession of is four.
The following list features every draft from 2000 to 2025, or 26 years’ worth of drafts. Lottery selections being listed include both those that were traded before and during a given draft. The values listed represent the number of lottery picks Team B had instead of Team A, who originally owned those selections.
The trend to notice right away is that the numbers go up and down like a rollercoaster:
LOTTERY PICKS FROM TEAM A THAT TEAM B OWNS (2000-2025):
2025: 3
2024: 4
2023: 5
2022: 4
2021: 3
2020: 1
2019: 6
2018: 6
2017: 6
2016: 7
2015: 0
2014: 4
2013: 5
2012: 4
2011: 4
2010: 2
2009: 1
2008: 4
2007: 4
2006: 6
2005: 3
2004: 4
2003: 4
2002: 2
2001: 6
2000: 6
In 2000 and 2001, nearly half of the top-14 picks were owned by other teams.
The numbers stagnated and then fell for the rest of the decade. Between 2002 and 2009, the average number of top-14 picks other teams had was 3.5. That’s slightly lower compared to the average for this century. The stat cratered in 2009, with just one lottery pick a team owned that wasn’t its own.
The trend of Team B owning Team A’s top-14 pick started to shift in the last 15 years. Between 2011 and 2025, 11 of the 15 years in that period saw at least four lottery picks per draft in another team’s possession.
There are only a few outliers in the data. 2015 marks the only time this century when all 14 lottery teams owned their selection. The 2020 draft saw just one top-14 pick change hands, while 2021 and 2023 saw three each year.
Plus, between 2011 and 2025, the average number of lottery picks other teams owned was 4.13. In other words, slightly above the average in the 21st century, but by a pretty tiny margin.
One four-year stretch, 2016 to 2019, stands out above the rest. Team B owed at least six top-14 picks per draft from Team A in each of those years.
Ownership of First-Round Draft Picks By the Numbers
All that being said, what happens after including all first-round picks in a given year’s draft?
When doing so, the numbers substantially increase. To clarify, this list includes the exact information as above. This time, it adds all the non-lottery first-rounders.
FIRST ROUND PICKS FROM TEAM A THAT TEAM B OWNS (2000-2025):
2025: 16
2024: 12
2023: 16
2022: 15
2021: 14
2020: 12
2019: 15
2018: 13
2017: 17
2016: 15
2015: 8
2014: 13
2013: 13
2012: 11
2011: 13
2010: 12
2009: 10
2008: 13
2007: 11
2006: 15
2005: 9
2004: 12
2003: 10
2002: 13
2001: 12
2000: 13
In all but two drafts (2005 and 2015), at least a third of all first-rounders were moved to another team. On average, the number of first-round picks owned by Team B instead of Team A is just under 13 (12.8).
Similar to the lottery picks, a familiar pattern repeats. The numbers are slightly high at the start of the century and then stagnate. Once again, the 2015 draft stands out as the outlier compared to the history of the century. After that, the frequency of first-rounders changing hands increases.
Between 2016 and 2025, over half the first-rounders were owned by another team in five of the ten drafts. That number never fell below 12 (2020 and 2024) and peaked at 17 in 2017. The 2025 draft is currently tied with 2023 for the second-most first-rounders Team B had instead of Team A in the 21st century.
The key stat: in that same time frame, 14.5 sits as the average number of firsts moved to another team either before or during the draft. Essentially, almost half the league. For context, the average was 11.75 between 2000 and 2015. That’s almost three picks more between 2016-2025 compared to 2000-2015.
Takeaways From the Numbers
In short, how does the data translate?
First, the math shows the number of first-rounders moved at some point during the draft is higher over the past 10 years compared to the previous 15. But, specifically with the lottery picks, the numbers remain pretty stable overall.
Furthermore, all of that should make sense based on how NBA teams operate. Franchises are unlikely to trade top-five picks because of the value and especially for teams in need of young talent. Even then, most of those picks that moved are likely mid-draft trades and move-up/move-down scenarios. For example, 2017 between the Celtics and Sixers, or 2018 between the Mavericks and Hawks.
That being said, first-round picks being owned by other teams is higher over the last 10 years. Likewise, that also checks out. As previously reported, over a third of the league (including this draft) is out at least two first-round picks going forward.
One key trend to watch going forward is whether the high number of first-rounders in bigger moves stays high. In a lot of these cases, the picks Team B had from Team A came from past trades, sometimes from years ago.
Overall, the state of NBA first-round picks continues to be an interesting part of team building to monitor going forward. The upcoming draft should be no different, as NBA history shows.