Calvin Barrett is a writer, editor, and prolific Mario Kart racer located in Provo, Utah. Currently writing for SB Nation and FanSided, he has covered the Utah Jazz and BYU athletics since 2024 and graduates from Utah Valley University in the Spring.

I’ve got a bad feeling about this.

The number one pick in the NBA Draft. Men want it. Children dream of it. Mascots vaguely gesture about it. The Utah Jazz? Historically, they’ve avoided it.

But the 2024-25 regular season resulted in a way vastly different from years previous as the Jazz finished with a 17-65 record. That’s good for worst in Utah Jazz history and, yes, worst in the entire NBA.

A craving for superstar talent has sent this Salt Lake City-based basketball franchise careening to the depths of the standings ladder. That urge has led to, in Utah’s case, tanking: a hideous black eye on the reputation of professional sport. This is what it’s come to. Love it or hate it, the Jazz have timidly complied with their neighbor’s demands to “turn down the volume”.

But you know all this, and submarine races have become far more genuine than ever before (and unfortunately far less “viewer-friendly”) as Utah has battled their peers to see just who can sink the lowest.

A craving for superstar talent has sent this Salt Lake City-based basketball franchise careening to the depths of the standings ladder.

Utah has won, but if we take a step back to consider their prize, have they really?

Welcome to Mr. Barrett’s hoops history class, one and all. Today’s topic is recent results in the NBA Draft lottery, specifically regarding how frequently the worst record actually obtained the number one pick. Yes, how often does the worst team grab the greatest prize, and does Utah’s forgettable result suggest they’re primed to become this lineup’s “first captain”?

Since the lottery odds readjustment of 2019, giving the three worst records an even 14% split each, the worst record has grabbed the number one overall pick a total of…

What?

No, that can’t be right. Hold on one second while I cross-check my data. This couldn’t possibly be correct. My information tells me that the lowest win column has delivered the number one pick zero times.

NBA Draft Lottery Results by Year:

2024 – 5th pick (Detroit)
2023 – 5th pick (Detroit)
2022 – 3rd pick (Houston)
2021 – 2nd pick (Houston)
2020 – 2nd pick (Golden State)
2019 – 3rd pick (New York)

Ok, so the odds haven’t been especially kind to the worst teams in basketball, but still, some of these teams are walking away with some strong pieces to build around, right?

I mean, come on, the fifth pick isn’t so bad, right? How could you be upset about getting the second or third selection?

Well, the basketball gods’ cruelty toward their devoted servants becomes even worse when put into the context of the players these teams missed thanks to the ping pong balls.

New York came away with RJ Barrett with Zion Williamson and Ja Morant off the board.

Golden State grabbed James Wiseman immediately following Anthony Edwards’ selection.

Houston took Jalen Green behind the surging Cade Cunningham, then came away with Jabari Smith in place of Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren in back-to-back swings.

Then the ever-cursed Detroit, who found themselves tumbling to the fifth slot in sequential seasons, nabbed Ausaur Thompson and Ron Holland instead of Victor Wembanyama (ouchie) and… Stephon Castle, I guess? The 2024 class was underwhelming, so we’ll call that a wash, if you’re cool with that.

If the Jazz find themselves tumbling through the draft order, how long will it take before the narrative shifts regarding tanking?

So here sits the Utah Jazz, with a 14% chance to obtain the ultimate prize of Cooper Flagg, and an 86% chance to slide. With recent memory as context, Utah truly has zero room for error, and nowhere else to go but down.

If the Jazz find themselves tumbling through the draft order, how long will it take before the narrative shifts regarding tanking? If the worst record whiffs for the seventh consecutive season, the valiant defenders of the tanking technique may dwindle.

The Jazz have gone for broke on a system that has proven disadvantageous to its zealots. Should they miss out on the cream of this season’s crop, they’ll have no choice but to try again next season. I hate to be pessimistic, but just how likely is it that the Jazz get caught in a hideous cycle of losing during the year, only to lose in the draft?

There’s always a chance Utah secures its franchise savior this June, but the margin for error is impossibly low. Did the Jazz impede their own reconstruction by tearing themselves down to the studs, or can they break this wheel of infinite sorrow?