Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder matchup on Wednesday as part of the nine-game NBA Cup slate.

NBA Cup action picks back up on Wednesday evening with nine games across the schedule. A Western Conference showdown in Group A pits the Minnesota Timberwolves against the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder in what should be a fantastic matchup. With both contenders playing some great basketball this year, this looks like one of the top billings on tonight’s slate in a high-energy battle between Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Here’s a Timberwolves vs. Thunder prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s matchup.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prediction, preview

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves may sit seventh in the Western Conference, but a 10-7 record is more than respectable, as is the NBA’s eighth-best NETRTG of +5.3. Minnesota has dropped two consecutive contests and remains in dire need of a win to prevent a streak from forming, but the overall results this season are quite encouraging. The pairing of Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle is finally clicking better than ever with the former averaging 27.8 PPG while the latter pitches in 24.2 PPG with 7.5 boards a night. It’s a significant development for Randle in particular as the 31-year-old struggled in his first season with the T-Wolves last year, but now looks like his All-Star self the team traded for. There’s been help from other sources as well with Jaden McDaniels averaging a career-best 16.5 PPG while playing elite defense, Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid scoring around 13-14 a game, and even Rudy Gobert hitting the boards to average a double-double. The Wolves have some nice pieces and just have to put them together on a more consistent basis to really be a threat.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have played 18 total games as the season approaches the 1/4 mark. In that sample, fans have to feel quite pleased with a staggering 17-1 record that includes nine straight wins despite the fact that All-Star wing Jalen Williams is still yet to return from wrist surgery. Oklahoma City largely dominates the competition with a league-best NETRTG of +16.7, the third highest-scoring offense and stingiest defense in the league to boot. How are the Thunder doing this? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks primed for another run at the MVP with 32.2 PPG and 6.6 assists, while Chet Holmgren plays second fiddle with 18.3 PPG and 7.9 rebounds as well. However, Ajay Mitchell has broken out with averages of 16.1 points and a handful of boards and dimes, plus Aaron Wiggins pitches in 14.8 points while shooting greater than 40% from three. With other role players like Isaiah Joe, Isaiah Hartenstein and Luguentz Dort, it’s not surprising to see OKC rolling over opponents thanks to high-level depth and two-way talents who play their roles.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are -9.5 favorites with -425 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Timberwolves are listed at +330 to win outright with a game total of 227.5 points.

There’s one very important piece of info to keep in mind tonight — Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable to play due to illness. If the reigning MVP isn’t at full strength, he may not see a typical share of minutes or miss this game entirely. While Minnesota has a chance in this one regardless of his status, bettors should absolutely keep an eye peeled on whether he’ll play as tip-off approaches.

With that said, I do like the Timberwolves to cover at +9.5. As mentioned earlier, they’re top-10 in NETRTG and fall ninth in both PPG and opponent scoring, so it’s not like this unit is a pushover by any means. It’s a smidge concerning to see an average point margin of +2.7 when playing on the road compared to +5.4 overall for the Wolves, but there’s no denying the fit between Edwards and Randle continues to improve while the surrounding talent stacks up fairly well to Oklahoma City. Minnesota can roll out double-big lineups with Reid and Gobert to match up with Holmgren and Hartenstein, and Randle also brings size of his own with perimeter creation. Both teams play at a similar pace as well, and McDaniels should draw the primary matchup with Gilgeous-Alexander (if he plays) to slow the star down, too.

While they may not upset the Thunder, the Timberwolves have plenty of pieces and are clearly a good basketball team. That 9.5-point spread is way too long even against a dominant OKC squad, so I’m very comfortable taking Minnesota to cover at the very least and even considering the team to win outright as a plus-money underdog.

Top pick: MIN Timberwolves +9.5 (-105)