The winner of West Group A in the NBA Cup will be decided on Friday night, as the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Phoenix Suns in Jalen Williams’ return to the lineup.

After missing OKC’s first 19 games of the season receiving from offseason wrist surgery, Williams is off the injury report and expected to play on Friday night.

That’s a major boost for a Thunder team that is 18-1 so far this season and favored by double digits at home against the Suns.

Phoenix is off to a solid start in the 2025-26 campaign, but it’s done most of its damage at home (8-3) while going .500 (4-4) on the road.

Can the Suns pull off a major upset to advance in the NBA Cup?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Friday’s matchup. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Moneyline

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Suns Injury ReportThunder Injury ReportThunder Best NBA Prop Bet

In today’s best NBA prop bets column for SI Betting, I broke down why Williams is worth a look in his season debut: 

Based on the odds and line for this prop, oddsmakers are bracing for Oklahoma City Thunder star Jalen Williams to be on some kind of minutes limit in his return to the floor.

Still, we’ve seen players come back from lengthy injuries and jump right back into their normal roles, such as Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro earlier in the week. So, I think this line is way too low for Williams, who averages 18.1 points per game for his career and averaged over 14 points per game in his rookie season (his lowest scoring campaign).

Last season, Williams averaged 21.6 points on 16.9 shots per game, and he should be in the mix to clear this line even if he only plays around 20-25 minutes. Phoenix’s defense falls off a cliff on the road compared to at home, going from a home defensive rating of 108.8 to 116.5 on the road.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Thunder try to get Williams going early and often in his season debut.

While the Thunder have been dominant all season long, it’s hard to lay 15 or more points with them every single night – and they’re right around .500 against the spread at home because of that.

Instead, I’m looking to the UNDER in this game, as it’s hit in the majority of both team’s contests this season.

These squads are both in the top 10 in the league in defensive rating, as OKC is far and away the best defense in the league while Phoenix clocks in at No. 9. That number takes a step back on the road, but I still think the Suns frenetic style – led by Dillon Brooks – should make things a little tougher on the Thunder tonight. 

OKC has hit the UNDER in 10 of 19 games, including five of nine games at home. Plus, the Thunder are allowing just 105.6 points per game this season – the best mark in the NBA.

I’ll go UNDER in this matchup on Friday night.  

Pick: UNDER 223.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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