The Detroit Pistons (15-4) aim to end their losing streak in a battle against the Miami Heat (13-6) Saturday. Tip-off from Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, is set for 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Pistons vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
2024-25 season series: Detroit won 3-1 (including In-Season Tournament)
Detroit was handed a 112-109 loss by the Orlando Magic Friday while failing to cover as a 3.5-point home favorite as the Under (230.5) hit. G Cade Cunningham had the perfect missed free throw and offensive rebound to give the Pistons a chance to tie, but Magic G Anthony Black blocked Duncan Robinson’s three-point attempt just before the buzzer. Cunningham finished with 39 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists.
The Heat picked up their sixth straight in a 106-103 showdown against the Milwaukee Bucks Wednesday, failing to cover as a 10-point home favorite with the Under (237) cashing. Tyler Herro scored 29 points, and 5 of his teammates finished in double figures alongside him. The Heat picked up 18 much-needed points at the foul stripe in the win, 9 more than Milwaukee.
Pistons at Heat odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Pistons +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Heat -175 (bet $175 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Pistons +3.5 (-105) | Heat -3.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 238.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Pistons at Heat key injuries
Pistons
(Not yet submitted — below was for Friday’s game)
G Jaden Ivey (conditioning) questionableG Marcus Sasser (hip) out
Heat
F Jaime Jaquez Jr. (groin) questionableG Norman Powell (groin) probableG Terry Rozier III (personal) outF Andrew Wiggins (hip) probable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Pistons at Heat picks and predictionsPrediction
Heat 109, Pistons 107
PASS.
I slightly lean towards the Heat to cover here as -175 favorites because they are on such a hot streak, but Detroit is so good on both sides of the ball that the bet would be very risky. Add on that the Pistons have the best player in this game in Cunningham, and you see that the bet is just simply too risky to make.
If you are confident in the Heat, then they are worth a small wager as the odds aren’t too ridiculously in their favor.
BET PISTONS +3.5 (-105).
This will be a very tightly contested defensive battle, and that favors the Pistons, who force a ton of turnovers while also limiting paint points better than almost anyone in the league. In the half court and the clutch, the Pistons will always have the advantage with Cunningham, making this bet even more favorable.
Detroit has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 matchups between these squads overall. The Pistons are also 3-1 ATS in the last 4 matchups in Miami.
LEAN UNDER 238.5 (-110).
These squads are both top 3 in defensive rating, and both are some of the best in the league at forcing turnovers. While these squads are both good offensively as well, it will be the defenses that shine brightest in this matchup.
The Under has hit in back-to-back games for the Heat and back-to-back games for the Pistons.
Because both teams are nearly top 10 offensively, this bet is slightly risky.
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