Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for the San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves NBA matchup.

The San Antonio Spurs will face the Minnesota Timberwolves as part of tonight’s eight-game NBA slate. Both these teams have legitimate playoff aspirations and currently sit in fifth and sixth place in the loaded Western Conference.

The Timberwolves enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -180 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Spurs are +150 underdogs, with the game total set at 233.5 points.

This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Sunday night matchup.

Spurs at Timberwolves Preview

Victor Wembayama’s calf injury put a bit of a damper on the Spurs’ outlook, but there are still plenty of reasons for optimism outside of the Frenchman. Joining him on the sideline tonight will be Stephon Castle due to a hip injury and Jordan McLaughlin, who is sidelined due to a hamstring issue.

Despite the injuries, the Spurs hold a 13-5 record on the season, which puts them in fifth place in the Western Conference. San Antonio is producing 119.2 points per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. They rank seventh in field goal percentage, 13th in three-point percentage, 10th in rebounds, and seventh in offensive rating. Their defensive metrics have taken a dip since Wemabnyama has been sidelined, but the Spurs still rank fifth on the season by allowing 112.9 points per game. They are holding opponents to the sixth-worst field goal percentage, but rank 28th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

De’Aaron Fox headlines the scoring, averaging 24.0 points along with 6.9 assists and 3.6 rebounds. Second-overall pick Dylan Harper has battled some injury issues of his own, but is producing 12.8 points, 3.5 assists, and 3.4 rebounds across his 21.5 minutes per game. Harrison Barnes lead the team in three-point production at 43.2%, helping contribute to his 12.8 points per game and deserving more credit for his longevity. Devin Vassell pitches in 15.6 points while Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson, and Jeremy Sochan round out most of their notable depth. The Spurs are 9-7-2 against the spread this season and are holding a 9-9 record to the over/under.

The Timberwolves enter with a clean injury report, but will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back after defeating the Celtics 119-115 last night. Minnesota holds a record of 11-8 on the season, which slots them in sixth place in the West. They are 7-12 against the spread, and the under has cashed in 10 of their 19 games.

As a team, Minnesota is averaging 118.8 points per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. They rank ninth in field goal percentage, fourth in three-point percentage, 18th in rebounds, and 11th in offensive rating. Defensively, opponents are scoring 114.2 points per game, which ranks 11th. The Timberwolves rank eighth in opponents’ field goal percentage, 12th in opponents’ three-point percentage, 15th in rebounds allowed, and 11th in defensive rating.

Anthony Edwards headlines the scoring effort with 28.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists while shooting 39.7% from beyond the three-point arc. Julius Randle adds 23.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.7 assists, while Jaden McDaniels has taken a leap in his development by posting averages of 15.7 points and 4.8 rebounds while shooting 46.8% on three-point attempts. Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and Rudy Gobert each also play a major role.

Spurs at Timberwolves Prediction, Best Bet

The Spurs have done an admirable job battling through injuries this year, but this is a tough matchup against an established Timberwolves team. Minnesota has plenty of continuity with this core this season and through the years. The Timberwolves have played just three different starting lineup combinations this season, which is the fewest in the NBA.

The Timberwolves have several different high-level three-point shooters, with their team percentage of 38.2% ranking fourth in the league. This will be a problem against a Spurs team that ranks 28th in opponents’ three-point percentage and 13th in three-point volume allowed. Expect Anthony Edwards to be particularly aware of this weakness, with him currently shooting a career-best rate from beyond the arc.

Minnesota has allowed opponents to hang around all too often this season. But these are the types of victories they need to pick up if they are to finish where they desire in a loaded Western Conference. The Spurs have a dynamic backcourt, but the Timberwolves are built to match up with them as well as a team could be. San Antonio can still be a playoff threat at full strength, but this is not how they enter today.

Playing at home against a banged-up opponent, I like Minnesota to cover the 4.5-point spread. They have not covered the number at a high rate overall, but have in eight of their last 14 games played. San Antonio has also failed to cover their last seven games as underdogs. You can nitpick that San Antonio has struggled to beat the better teams, while Minnesota has been the opposite. They have covered 10 of their last 12 home games against Western Conference opponents with a winning record.

Expect Anthony Edwards to be ready to shine in this matchup and for the depth of the Timberwolves to shine through. The three point battle will be a major issue and swing heavily in the Timberwolves’ favor. Count on Minnesota picking up one of its more notable victories of the season and covering the 4.5-point spread in this Sunday night matchup.

Best Bet: Timberwolves -4.5 (-105)