Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Timberwolves at Pelicans on Tuesday.
The New Orleans Pelicans entered the 2025-26 season with at least some expectations and a lot of pressure. With a supposedly slim and healthy Zion Williamson and a new ownership group, the Pelicans felt comfortable enough to trade their 2026 first round pick for Maryland center Derik Queen. But Williamson has been in and out of the lineup while dealing with injuries, Willie Green has already been fired, and New Orleans sits at the bottom of the West.
The road won’t get any easier for the Pelicans on Tuesday night when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves at 8 p.m. ET. Minnesota has made two consecutive conference finals and currently sits sixth in the West. In addition to New Orleans’ longer-term absences, Trey Murphy III is questionable, while the Timberwolves are completely healty.
Minnesota is a 10.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-470 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 235.5. The Pelicans are +360 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s matchup and offer my prediction.
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans preview, prediction
This season, the Timberwolves have basically beaten every good team they’ve faced and lost to every bad team they’ve faced. They only have two wins against teams .500 or above, both of which came in their last two games (against the 11-9 Boston Celtics and the 13-6 San Antonio Spurs, who were missing both Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle), and they’ve only lost once against teams below .500. There have been plenty of bright spots: Anthony Edwards is averaging his typically efficient 28.9 points per game, Julius Randle is making a solid case to be named an All-Star for the fourth time, and Rudy Gobert is leading the league in field goal percentage. Still, Minnesota hasn’t gotten as much as it hoped from Naz Reid or youngster Rob Dillingham.
New Orleans, meanwhile, has lost to every good team it’s faced, as the only team in the NBA not to record a win against a team with a record .500 or better. The Pelicans have also lost to most of the bad teams they’ve faced, going just 3-5 in such games, though they did pick up a win over the 9-11 Chicago Bulls on November 24 to snap a nine-game losing streak. On the bright side, Murphy has returned to star form after a slow start to the season and Queen has looked excellent at times, displaying uncommon passing deft for his size and age. New Orleans may long be panned for dealing its unprotected first-round pick, especially if it turns out to be in the top three of a loaded draft class, but the building blocks for its lengthy rebuild are there.
Timberwolves at Pelicans pick, best bet
With Williamson back after missing the Pelicans’ loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, New Orleans should be somewhat stronger, given that he has the third-best on-off plus/minus among the team’s rotation players, but the Pelicans have still lost his minutes by 4.4 points per 100 possessions. Murphy’s potential return could help New Orleans’ defense, but his positive impact on that side of the ball is more than nullified by the corresponding decline on offense. Even with Murphy playing two-thirds of the Pelicans’ minutes this season, they rank third-to-last in defensive rating and, unsurprisingly, fifth-to-last in offensive rating. Interim head coach James Borrego somehow has an even worse record than Green did.
Despite not being able to get many wins against contenders so far, the Timberwolves have had a top-10 ranking on both sides of the ball and have had an expected winning percentage one game better than their actual 12-8 mark. Minnesota has been especially strong on defense as of late after starting off the season slowly, ranking third in defensive rating across the last 10 games. Only four teams have limited opponents to a lower field goal percentage inside the restricted area than the Timberwolves have, which could be a huge problem for Williamson, who ranks fifth in drives per game. Among the 45 players who have played at least 15 games and guarded at least five such shots per game, the 44.8% that opponents have shot within six feet against Gobert is the league’s lowest. Thankfully for Minnesota, the 33-year-old has appeared in all 20 games and played 32 minutes per game, because the team’s defense utterly falls off a cliff without him.
New Orleans will need to play aggressively to pull off the upset, given that one of the Timberwolves’ biggest flaws is fouling too much. If the Pelicans can get Gobert, Randle, and Donte DiVincenzo off the floor, they might have a chance against Minnesota’s inferior backups, but even that is a very tall task, given that none of those players averages even three fouls per game. The Timberwolves’ bench even has an advantage over the New Orleans bench despite ranking just 18th in net rating.
Overall, shooting luck normalization is likely to benefit Minnesota: the Pelicans have allowed one of the healthiest shot diets, conceding the second-most wide-open three-pointers, the 11th-most shots in the restricted area, and the third-most corner triples, while the Timberwolves has conceded the 11th-fewest shots at the rim, the 10th-fewest corner tries, and the ninth-fewest uncontested threes. New Orleans has also allowed among the highest percentages at the rim, and Minnesota has converted at among the highest rates. The Timberwolves might cool off, and the Pelicans might heat up, but Minnesota is more naturally stocked with shooters as is.
All in all, I’m expecting a Timberwolves defensive masterclass, given that New Orleans loves to get downhill and Minnesota’s defense thrives on rim protection. It’s possible that the Timberwolves’ defensively-limited backups will allow the Pelicans’ offense-oriented reserves to score in garbage time, but I’ll take New Orleans’ points under in a comfortable Minnesota victory.
Best bet: New Orleans Pelicans U111.5 Points (-110)