A 12-game winning streak for Oklahoma City sets the tone for tonight’s Thunder vs. Warriors Predictions, especially with Golden State missing Stephen Curry and relying heavily on short-handed depth for production. This creates a strong angle for several NBA betting picks, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scoring props and OKC’s spread.
*These suggestions are based on matchup data and current form, but remember that sports betting is unpredictable and no outcome is guaranteed.
Thunder to Cover the Spread -12.5
Oklahoma City’s current form makes them a worthy favorite even at a double-digit spread. Their defensive efficiency has overwhelmed opponents, and their stars are healthy despite multiple rotation injuries. Meanwhile, Golden State enters this game without their top scorer, creating a significant offensive gap that’s difficult to overcome. The Thunder have already beaten the Warriors by 24 points this season, and with OKC’s balanced attack paired with Golden State’s limited shot creation, the -12.5 line is supported by recent performance and matchup context.
Under 220.5 Total Points
Golden State’s short-handed roster leans heavily on three-point shooting, but without Curry, their shot quality drops sharply. Their 23rd-ranked offense faces OKC’s elite defense, a combination that pushes this matchup toward a lower total. Oklahoma City has also shown a willingness to slow the pace and rely on their defensive structure, especially against teams missing primary creators. With Golden State potentially missing Jimmy Butler as well, scoring could be even more limited.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 points
Shai’s season average of 32.5 points already positions him comfortably above this line, and Golden State’s current defensive situation favors another high-volume outing. Without Curry, the Warriors struggle to keep games competitive for long stretches, forcing them to rely on secondary defenders who are unlikely to contain Gilgeous-Alexander’s downhill creation and midrange efficiency. His consistency makes this one of the strongest player props on the board.
Chet Holmgren to Record 8+ Rebounds
Holmgren averages 8.0 rebounds per game and faces a Warriors frontcourt missing Al Horford and potentially Trayce Jackson-Davis. With limited size available for Golden State, Holmgren should have a clear path to reaching or surpassing his typical rebounding production. OKC’s strong team defense also forces plenty of contested and late-clock shots, adding more rebounding opportunities for their interior anchor.
Thunder vs. Warriors Game Overview
Oklahoma City enters this game as the Western Conference’s top team at 20–1, backed by a dominant 12-game win streak and a perfect 10-0 stretch over their last ten outings. Their elite defensive profile – second in the league in points allowed – has combined with a top-four offense to create one of the NBA’s most balanced and efficient teams.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to perform at an MVP level, ranking second in the league with 32.5 points per game, while rookie Chet Holmgren anchors the interior with 18.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks.
Golden State sits at 11–10 and an even 5–5 in their last ten games, though their 7–2 home record is a stabilizing factor. Still, the Warriors are severely limited without Stephen Curry, Al Horford, and De’Anthony Melton. Jimmy Butler III is questionable, and several rotation players are banged up.
Their offense sits 23rd in the league, and they rely heavily on three-point shooting, ranking fourth in makes per game. Against OKC’s disciplined defense, that approach becomes even more difficult. OKC also holds the edge historically, leading the all-time series 147–124 and taking the first meeting of the season 126–102.