After sustaining a torn ACL and undergoing surgery in September, both fans and media alike assumed Fred would be out for the entire 2025-2026 season. However, neither Houston nor VanVleet has ruled out a possible return.

In the first episode of his podcast, Unguarded, Fred was asked about returning before or during the 2026 NBA playoffs and responded by saying:

That’s what I’m pushing for. Nothing is guaranteed, but that’s what I’m pushing for, for sure. Them boys look good out there.

know what I can add, and what I can bring to the table. So, it gives me something to think about, and something to push for when I’m doing my rehab. This (expletive) is difficult. It gives me some motivation to get back.

But I don’t want to put that pressure on myself right now. It’s a little early. But I’m definitely trying to push back, for sure.

Most players return from ACL surgery after a minimum of nine months, and with the playoffs beginning in April, it will mark about seven months since VanVleet underwent surgery. Of course, both Houston as an organization and Fred are aware that this would be a quicker-than-normal return, but both sides remain hopeful.

However, this is a bit awkward as of late, Reed Sheppard has looked outstanding. During an 11-game stretch, Reed Sheppard is averaging 12.3 points per game in 22.4 minutes of play via 48.5 percent field goal shooting, which includes 47.7 percent from the three-point line. He has been very impressive in his last five games. Additonally, Reed Sheppard became the youngest guard in NBA history to achieve four consecutive double-digit scoring games with an 80.0 TS% or better, according to Bradeaux on Twitter.

After passing this mark, Reed followed it up with a career high 31 points vs the Warriors on November 26 to lead Houston to a win.

This brings up the question that if Reed is starting to shine as a starter, so why change what works? This, in a way, is similar to the situation last season, where Amen Thompson took Jabari’s starting spot with Jabari injured, and remained in the starting lineup afterwards, except this time, it’s two players who play the same position and role fighting for one spot.

That’s not all, because it was reported on October 27 that Houston intends to apply for a handicapped player exemption, which, under the current CBA, would be worth about $12.5 million. The Rockets can sign a free agent to a one-year contract with the DPE for roughly $12.5M, or they can trade for or claim a player off waivers with a salary up to $12.5M plus $100K (expiring contract or final year only). However, a league doctor must approve Houston’s DPE application. The doctor essentially determines whether or not Houston believes the disabled player will be fully recovered by July 15. Additionally, they are hard-capped at the first apron ($195.9 million) and cannot boost salaries above that without trading off more than they receive to stay below it, because there is only $1.3 million remaining from the present payroll of roughly $197.7 million. Unless they first create space through trade. Obviously, this is important because if Fred returns, then Houston would be unable to use the DPE.

What are your thoughts? Which would you prefer—Houston relying on Reed Sheppard and attempting to apply for the DPE, or Fred returning in late March or early April?