Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for the San Antonio Spurs vs. Orlando Magic NBA matchup.
Taking place across the nine-game slate of NBA action tonight, the Orlando Magic will host the San Antonio Spurs. Both these teams entered the season with hopes and expectations to take the leap forward into contention as each youthful core takes their next step. The early results have been mostly encouraging, with the pair of teams sitting in fourth and fifth place in their respective conferences.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Magic enter as 8.5-point favorites and hold -340 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Spurs hold +270 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 235.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Wednesday night matchup.
Spurs at Magic Preview
The Spurs enter with a 14-6 record on the season and have won six of their past eight. They currently sit in fourth place in the Western Conference, even while battling some notable injuries to start the season. San Antonio is 10-8-2 against the spread, and the over has cashed in 11 of their 20 games.
Victor Wembayama remains sidelined with his calf issue and last played on November 14th. Jordan McLaughlin and Stephon Castle have also been ruled out. De’Aaron Fox has settled in during his second season with the team, averaging 24.5 points, 6.4 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game. Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Harrison Barnes round out the production on the wings, each averaging 13+ points per game. Second-overall pick Dylan Harper has opened some eyes, posting averages of 13.4 points, 3.4 assists, and 2.8 rebounds in just 21.2 minutes per game. Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie, Jeremy Sochan, and Kelly Olynyk round out most of their depth.
San Antonio is producing 119.2 points per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. They are producing the sixth-best field goal percentage, rank 14th in three-point percentage, 14th in rebounds per game, 15th in assists per contest, and sixth in offensive rating. Defensively, opponents are scoring 113.9 points per game, which ranks eighth among NBA teams. The Spurs rank ninth in opponents’ field goal percentage, 27th in opponents’ three-point percentage, sixth in opponents’ rebounds allowed, and 11th in defensive rating.
There were some early growing pains in Orlando following the offseason trade for Desmond Bane. But the Magic have settled in since and are off to a 13-8 start to the season. They enter this game on a three-game winning streak and have won six of their past seven. The Magic are 11-10 against the spread, and the over has cashed in 13 of their 21 games.
Paolo Banchero and Mo Wagner remain sidelined for Orlando. This will mark Banchero’s 10th consecutive game missed due to his groin injury. Franz Wagner leads the team with 22.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. Desmond Bane has struggled as a shooter and is still connecting on only 32.4% of his perimeter shots this season. But the TCU product is still pitching in 19.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. Wendell Carter Jr, Anthony Black, Jalen Suggs, and Tristan Da Silva each also average in double figures, while Goga Bitadze plays an important role patrolling the glass.
The Magic generate 119.5 points per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. They rank 12th in field goal percentage, 24th in three-point percentage, ninth in offensive rating, 23rd in assists, and 10th in rebounds per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 114.3 points per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Orlando ranks 18th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 21st in opponents’ three-point percentage, third in assists allowed, seventh in rebounds given up, and seventh in defensive rating.
Spurs at Magic Prediction, Best Bet
Tonight will make the second half of a back-to-back for the Spurs after they defeated the Grizzlies 126-119 last night. The absence of Victor Wembanyama is notable, but San Antonio has done an admirable job continuing to produce positive results without their superstar. They are 6-2 across the eight games since his calf issue first popped up.
The Magic have found some momentum, winning nine of their previous 11 games. They do an excellent job chasing opponents off the three-point line and give up the fewest perimeter attempts in the league. But this is not an area of the floor the Spurs are dependent on, with them ranking 18th in three-point attempts and 14th in three-point percentage. Any way you slice it, the 7.5-point spread feels too significant for the context of this matchup. The Spurs are 10-8-2 against the spread overall, and have covered in six of their past eight games.
Expect De’Aaron Fox’s pace of play to make a difference and for Orlando to struggle to match the Spurs’ offensive output. It is time to begin viewing the Spurs in a bit different light and these are the types of matchups they will continue solidifying belief with. Desmond Bane has not been the cure-all to the Magic’s shooting problems in the way it was hoped, and Orlando has had some ups-and-downs offensively. San Antonio will punish them if this is the case, and has done a nice job playing with an increased tempo since Wemabnyama has been sidelined.
Look for this effort to continue and for this matchup to be a battle down to the wire. The 7.5-point spread is too significant based on the context of these teams, and the Spurs should be considered live underdogs. Orlando has played a better level of late, but San Antonio is battle-tested with some notable victories, such as over the Denver Nuggets this week. Count on the Spurs making some noise on the road and for this game to go down to the wire. Expect San Antonio to cover the 7.5-point spread and for the Magic to be unable to put their opponents away throughout.