Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Clippers at Hawks on Wednesday.
The LA Clippers enter Wednesday night’s road battle against the Atlanta Hawks on a five-game losing streak, and they’re now without Chris Paul, who they shockingly dismissed from the team in the middle of the night, abruptly halting his 21st and final NBA season. It’s arguably the most surprising develop yet in a disastrous Clippers season, since LA isn’t exactly deep and Paul wasn’t typically put in high-leverage situations.
The game will tip tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in downtown Atlanta. Trae Young remains out for the Hawks and Derrick Jones Jr. for the Clippers, and in addition to Young, Kristaps Porziņġis will sit because of an illness.
Atlanta is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-148 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 226.5. LA is +124 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s matchup and offer my prediction.
LA Clippers at Atlanta Hawks preview, prediction
Prior to Paul’s removal from the team, he’d made his way back into the Clippers’ rotation, averaging 3.6 points and 3.0 assists on 39-46-0 shooting splits in 15.5 minutes per game across his final eight games, in which LA went just 1-7. All in all, the Clippers have picked up just two wins since the start of November and have lost three of their last five games by 15 or more points. Paul is far from the only player who has disappointed: Kawhi Leonard has played only 11 games, Ivica Zubac’s efficiency has decreased, and Nicolas Batum and Brook Lopez have regressed to the point that LA is trusting Kobe Brown and Kobe Sanders over them.
Meanwhile, the Hawks’ strong form without Young introduces more questions about his long-term future with the franchise, especially given how well the new-look, lengthy five-man lineup of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, and Onyeka Okongwu has looked. Johnson, in particular, has emerged as a superstar, averaging 23.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game on elite efficiency after Young’s injury, and Alexander-Walker is averaging a career-high 20.4 points per game. Atlanta’s wing depth has somewhat stunted the development of Risacher, last season’s first overall pick, who hasn’t played up to his draft selection so far this season but has played solid defense and contributed a team-high on-off plus/minus.
Clippers at Hawks pick, best bet
The Hawks have gone all in on defense since losing Young to his knee sprain, and since he was injured in the first quarter of their game against the Brooklyn Nets on October 29, they have posted the sixth-best defensive rating and the 14th-best offensive rating. The shortest member of their starting lineup is Alexander-Walker, and at six-foot-nine, he also has the smallest wingspan. It’s no surprise, then, that across that span, Atlanta ranks fifth in the league in deflections per game, as well as seventh in loose balls recovered. The Hawks’ length, speed, and grit poses a huge challenge to a Clippers team that ranks 10th-to-last in turnovers per game and fourth-to-last in average speed.
Offensively, these teams could hardly be more stylistically different. Atlanta averages the ninth-most passes and the most assists per game, while LA averages the eighth-fewest passes and third-fewest assists. The Hawks have also attempted the 10th-most shots inside the restricted area, while the Clippers have attempted the fifth-fewest. Atlanta plays at the eighth-fastest pace and LA at the third-slowest. As a result, the Hawks rank near the top of the league in points in the paint, fast-break points, and points off of turnovers, while the Clippers rank in the bottom 10 in all three categories. Defensively, LA has thrived at preventing points in the paint and just about nothing else.
After a slow start to the season, Zubac’s rim protection and defensive rebounding has climbed back towards its 2024-25 levels. The Clippers have allowed the fifth-fewest attempts at the rim and a league-average percentage, so they could help keep Atlanta at bay, which will be critical against a team that makes its restricted-area tries at the league’s ninth-highest rate. They could also have a huge advantage inside against the Hawks, who have allowed the fifth-most restricted-area attempts and held opponents to league-average efficiency: LA has been the second-most accurate team at the rim this season.
Atlanta’s biggest chances could come in the mid-range: the Clippers love to force middies, but the Hawks have been one of the league’s most accurate teams on such shots in 2025-26. Any shooting luck normalization should unequivocally favor LA. The Clippers have allowed the third-highest percentage on wide-open triples, while Atlanta has limited opponents to the second-lowest mark. The Hawks have also shot a better percentage on uncontested looks than LA has, though Atlanta has also generated nearly five more unguarded tries per game than the Clippers have.
Ultimately, the Paul saga will put LA under extra scrutiny entering tonight’s contest, and it’ll either respond to that pressure with a statement win to turn its season around or a blowout defeat to prolong the team’s disaster. If the Clippers’ front office was right and Paul’s feud with head coach Tyronn Lue was the primary distraction leading to all of LA’s losses, his removal could be the team’s catalyst to vault itself back into relevancy. Still, the Clippers’ braintrust has done nothing to prove that it deserves any grace. The Hawks will add more fuel to LA’s dumpster fire.
Best bet: Atlanta Hawks -5.5 Alternate Spread (+128)