Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Heat at Mavericks on Wednesday.

The NBA rumor mill has been spinning into overdrive over the last week or so. In addition to Chris Paul’s stunning release from the LA Clippers and Brian Windhorst’s revelation that Giannis Antetokounmpo had requested a trade away from the Milwaukee Bucks before the season, Anthony Davis reportedly expects the Dallas Mavericks to deal him eventually.

For now, though, Davis is still a Maverick, and he’ll be active tonight when Dallas hosts the Miami Heat for an 8:30 p.m. ET matchup at American Airlines Center. The injury-riddled Mavericks will once again be without Dereck Lively (and possibly P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford), while the Heat are almost completely healthy.

Miami is a 5.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-192 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 240.5. Dallas is +160 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s matchup and offer my prediction.

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks preview, prediction

After a slow start to the season, the Mavericks are starting to turn it around. First overall pick Cooper Flagg has turned in two brilliant games in a row, posting 35 points and eight rebounds in a win over the Clippers and 24 points in another win over the Denver Nuggets two nights later. In the latter game, Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds as he continues to work his way back from the calf strain that he suffered in Dallas’ October 29 win over the Indiana Pacers. Undrafted rookie Ryan Nembhard has played exceptionally and looks capable of filling in for Kyrie Irving until he’s able to return from his ACL tear. Over-reacting to a win over a dysfunctional LA franchise and a Denver team playing without Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon might be foolhardy, but of the eight Western Conference teams with losing records, it’s arguably the easiest to see the Mavericks making a playoff push eventually.

The Heat have been among the league’s hottest teams after entering the season with relatively muted expectations, running and gunning their way to seven wins in their last eight games, including a 140-123 throttling of the Clippers on Monday night that proved to be the death knell in Paul’s second tenure with the team. A pair of 2025 acquisitions, Andrew Wiggins and Norman Powell, have arguably been the team’s two best players so far, but Tyler Herro has averaged an efficient 24.8 points per game in his four contests since returning from foot surgery and Bam Adebayo has developed into a genuine stretch five. Davion Mitchell, too, has turned into a solid shooter in addition to his defensive intensity.

Heat at Mavericks pick, best bet

Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra, after more than a decade of gritting and grinding, has realized that his current roster is more suited to flying around the court, and as such, the Heat operate at the league’s fastest pace and run the fastest, per the NBA’s tracking data. The non-stop intensity has worked: Miami has had the 11th-best offense without sacrificing any of its defensive identity, and it has the league’s sixth-best net rating. The Heat also rank fifth in three-point percentage, fifth in rebounds, second in assists, and seventh in steals while committing the sixth-fewest fouls. Furthermore, they rank in the top five in points in the paint, fast break points, and points off of turnovers.

Dallas has played similarly, operating the sixth-fastest pace, though the Mavericks have been among the worst teams from beyond the arc and have given the ball away too frequently. Given their personnel, it’s unsurprising that they’ve had among the best defenses, ranking fifth in defensive rating — just behind Miami — but the offense has been slower to jell. Still, having a healthy Davis should help with that, given that the offense has been 5.2 points per 100 possessions better in the 210 minutes he’s played. Washington and Gafford have both had a net-negative impact on the offense this season, though both helped on that side of the ball in 2024-25.

This season, both Dallas and the Heat have allowed opponents to get into the paint at will and limited them to a league-average conversion rate. However, the Mavericks’ opponents have predominantly taken their non-paint shots from the midrange and Miami’s opponents have mostly launched them from deep, as the Heat have allowed the most three-point tries and Dallas the second-fewest. Stylistically, that should slightly benefit Miami, which has been better in the paint and converted middies at the 10th-highest rate, while the Mavericks have been the third-worst team from beyond the arc. The foul-shooting factor should be relatively even: Dallas draws more fouls but has converted free throws at a lower rate.

Both teams have benefited defensively from shooting luck, though the Mavericks have been better at closing out on opposing shooters. Dallas has allowed the second-fewest wide-open threes and the Heat the ninth-fewest, but the Mavericks’ opponents have cashed them at the third-lowest rate and Miami’s at the 10th-lowest. Offensively, the Heat have generated more uncontested looks than Dallas has and hit them at the fourth-highest clip, while the Mavericks have made an unsustainably low 31.7% of their triples, which is horrific even given their interior-oriented roster. The teams’ combined home-road net rating differential amounts to an edge of 1.8 points per 100 possessions for Dallas.

Miami’s hot form should allow it to pull off the win, but little about the Mavericks’ fundamentals suggests that they should continue to have the worst offense in the league, and the shot profile that they have allowed is somewhat healthier than that which the Heat have conceded. Sample sizes are always going to be small with Dallas, given the turnover on its roster, but this young team has figured it out enough to cover the spread.

Best bet: Dallas Mavericks +5.5 (-115)