You can’t turn around in the NBA this week without reading something about a major name being cut, traded, or demanding same. In quick succession stories about Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul, Milwaukee Bucks MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, and former New Orleans Pelicans first-overall pick Zion Williamson have come out.
In each case, questions have come into the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag regarding suitability for the Portland Trail Blazers. Would it make sense for Portland to consider, or even chase, any of these big names?
Instead of tackling the subject piecemeal in three mailbags, let’s just consolidate the various questions here under the umbrella of, “Is there a chance?” We’ll take the candidates one by one.
Anyone who’s read this website for more than a few months understands the meta-attraction of bringing Chris Paul to the Blazers. The Blazers passing over him in the 2005 NBA Draft in favor of Martell Webster and Linas Kleiza has become a mythological cautionary tale. It didn’t take two years for the Blazer’s Edge comments section to begin resounding with, “How does this get us Chris Paul?” after every trade rumor or post. Having Paul finish his career with the team would be legendary, the closure of a narrative that looked like it would never be resolved.
Adding to the story: every point guard on the roster right now is injured. The Blazers not only have room for Paul, but need.
Unfortunately, almost everything else argues against the move.
Let’s start with Portland’s financial situation. The Blazers are only $1.5 million below the luxury tax threshold as we speak. The minimum for Paul is about $2.3 million. Signing Paul would make Portland a taxpaying team. The penalties would be negligible, but they’d also forfeit the windfall that all non-taxpaying teams get at the end of the season: a slice of the luxury tax pie aggregated from all the franchises that went over the tax. That means Portland would probably incur $8-10 million of real cost by signing that $2.3 million contract. That’s a lot to pay for good feelings.
The Blazers could avoid this by making a trade before the end of the season to duck back below the line. Would you really want to obligate yourself to making a move with one of your mid-range or higher roster members for the sake of signing Chris Paul at this point, though? Getting a stocking stuffer for your kids is all well and good until you contemplate something like a kitten which will cost you food, vet bills, and lifestyle changes well beyond the moment. All of a sudden that small gift isn’t so small anymore. That’s Paul, given Portland’s financial situation.
All of this is exacerbated by Paul’s play right now. He’s shooting 32% from the floor, 33% from the arc. Even with a reasonable (not spectacular) assist level, it’s been killing the Clippers’ offense. Nor is Paul a Jrue-Holiday-like defender who can justify it on the other end. He’d not be that happy with Portland’s frantic pace either.
Beyond that, you have the whispers about his intractable attitude, a huge asset when he’s a team leader and one of the best players on the floor, maybe less so as the 8th-10th man in the rotation. That’s particularly true on a young team trying to establish an identity with a (for now) temporary and inexperienced head coach…a team that, when it comes right down to it, isn’t winning that much more than the Clippers. Paul’s vocal presence might be a godsend. It might also be a disruptive disaster. You’re rolling the dice there.
Finally, the Blazers have already sung this song twice this year, snagging Holiday in trade and picking up Damian Lillard after the Bucks let him go. How many “rah-rah”, feel good, assistant-coach-in-uniform veteran guards can a team handle? They absorbed Holiday’s large contract and paid Lillard the full veteran’s mid-level exception for multiple years. This isn’t Pokemon. The Blazers do not, actually, have to collect them all.
For all these reasons, even though it’d be a great story, I don’t think Portland and Chris Paul are meant for each other.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is quite another story. Any of 29 NBA teams would be happy to snatch up the former MVP and figure out what to do with him later. He’s that good.
It’s tempting to envision Portland trading back Milwaukee’s own picks to them for Antetokounmpo. It’s like stealing someone’s lunch money and then using it to buy their bike.
The Blazers even have a little bit of salary ballast to throw into a proposed deal, carrying the $30-million-plus contracts of Holiday and Jerami Grant.
The problem is, Milwaukee wouldn’t want that. The price would probably start with Deni Avdija then run through Toumani Camara before we even started talking about making contracts match. Plus draft picks and swaps.
In the end, it’s hard to envision any deal between the two teams that didn’t leave Giannis in a version of Milwaukee West, with a shaky team around him capable of making the playoffs but not capable of winning big there.
Portland would also have to look at Antetokounmpo’s player option in 2027-28. The Blazers could keep him this season and next, but after that he could walk if he wished to. Frankly, he’d probably wish to. If he doesn’t want to stay in Milwaukee after winning a championship, he wouldn’t want to stay in Portland without much brighter hopes.
That leaves the Blazers trading the heart of their young talent plus future draft assets for a couple years of…what? Excitement and mediocrity? They could probably get the same result cheaper. Maybe it’s a Dollar Store version, but the price savings is significant.
The only “out” I could see is if Holiday and Lillard cast some kind of My Little Pony Friendship Magic spell on Giannis and he insisted on coming to Portland without Avdija going the other way. In that case, Portland might blink and start to assemble assets to make an offer.
No recent first-overall pick short of Victor Wembanyama was more tantalizing when he was selected than Zion Williamson back in 2019.
Side Note: It’s hard to imagine it’s only been 6.5 calendar years since Zion’s draft. It feels like he’s been in the league two decades. Mostly that’s because of the litany of injuries he’s suffered, making him seem more like a grizzled veteran on his last legs than a 25-year-old.
But Williamson really is only 25 years old. Camara and Kris Murray are the same age, Caleb Love just a year younger. That’s Zion’s generation.
Williamson is also a terror offensively, capable of ripping apart any defense like The Hulk in a Kleenex factory. His rebounding numbers are down this year, but he’s adequate in that category. He can also pass. The only thing he doesn’t do at a good-or-better level is defend, but the Blazers could probably make up for that.
Sadly, the last thing one of the most injured teams in the league needs is more injuries. I believe Joe Dumars and the Pelicans would let Williamson go at quarters on the dollar. (Not pennies. They can’t. But Zion will be one of the most affordable superstars to ever hit the market. Draft picks and matching salaries might do it.) The bargain alone should testify to the risks of relying on his promise.
The best way I could describe it is, imagine Robert Williams III. Now imagine instead of your second or third center, Williams was the centerpiece of your team, the foundation upon which everything rested, a guy you spent significant assets for. What would Portland’s season look like then? If he was healthy, there’d be way more promise and excitement. But how often have you wondered about Williams’ health as it is? You’d wonder a lot more–and more would be riding on it–with Williamson.
If the Blazers said, “We believe in this guy and we believe this is the move,” I think everybody would get on board and try to believe too. That doesn’t mean they’d be right. Likely it’d turn out just as much of a disaster in Portland as it has been in New Orleans.
Either way, this is a trade you try to justify after it happens, not one you suggest before the fact. I don’t believe any team would be wise to take a big risk on Zion, but if anybody is going to, it’d need to be a franchise that could absorb the mercurial nature of their new star without rising and falling with him. I don’t think the Blazers are that team.
Sadly, that leaves Portland sitting outside of all of these deals and acquisitions. Their arc and budget just don’t fit the big-name, big-risk nature at this time. That’s ok, though. They might find other productive moves. Honestly, they could do with a practical Honda or even a slightly-stylish sports car. Paul, Williamson, and Antetokounmpo are a ‘69 Camaro, a luxury Jaguar, and a Lamborghini, respectively. The optics of picking them up are spectacular, but when you actually go to drive them, the combination of expense and reliability issues threaten to bite you in the backside. The Blazers don’t need that right now. Unless they go on a wild run or pick up that flashy car really cheap, they need to pass and stick to their steady, practical climb up the ranks.