The 2025-26 season is officially on Giannis Watch.
After years of reiterating his commitment to the Bucks, franchise icon Giannis Antetokounmpo is reportedly exploring life beyond Milwaukee. Per ESPN’s Shams Charania, Giannis and his agent are discussing whether a trade would make sense for both parties at this time and the situation is expected to be resolved soon.
Just in: Giannis Antetokounmpo and his agent Alex Saratsis have started conversations with the Milwaukee Bucks about the two-time NBA MVP’s future – and discussing whether his best fit is staying or elsewhere, sources tell ESPN. A resolution is expected in the coming weeks. pic.twitter.com/NfrpL2Ffvr
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) December 3, 2025
In the article attached to Charania’s post, the Bucks are on a timeline of Giannis’s direction. Before the campaign started, Charania’s sources said Antetokounmpo would examine the Bucks’ first 25 or so games and make decisions on his long-term future, depending on whether the team showed signs of competing in the Eastern Conference.
If Giannis is basing his decision on the early part of the NBA season, it’d be hard to not be impressed by what the Atlanta Hawks have shown to begin this year. Despite Trae Young getting sidelined with an injury early, the team has made themselves into a viable playoff team in the Eastern Conference behind the impressive play of Jalen Johnson and their depth. They also have tradeable first-round picks from 2025 onwards with the exception of their 2026 first-round pick and a lack of massive salaries on their books beyond Young and Johnson. Add that all to the fact that their roster is one of the youngest in the NBA in a wide-open Eastern Conference and it’s a rather attractive destination for a superstar player.
Therefore, it’s certainly possible the Hawks are the team that lands Giannis. However, what would the deal look like? In my opinion, there are some parameters that any deal would likely need to hit.
1) The Bucks need a pathway towards a future star to become the heir apparent to Giannis and at least three first-round picks. Their own picks would be preferable since they can directly control the value of those selections.
2) The Hawks need to have one or both of Trae Young/Jalen Johnson to give Giannis a co-star.
3) Neither team should be crippled by the salary apron rules for 2025-26 or in future seasons. Because the apron rules are so prohibitive, there have to be pathways towards keeping a healthy salary cap for everyone involved.
4) Each team needs to be close to the roster size regulations for NBA teams.
5) These trades need to be completed in the 2025-26 season. If Giannis is already exploring his future, it doesn’t make sense to have a deal that can only be completed after the season. Charania’s report even states that a resolution is expected in the coming weeks. That suggests this is an urgent matter and Giannis will force the issue to get a deal done. Any possible Giannis deal therefore must be salary-cap compliant by the February 6th trade deadline at the latest.
Here are three possibilities that could work under the NBA’s salary cap rules for the 2025-26 season.
It should be noted that this is just a speculative and fun exercise to see what kind of moves can be made, not what I think the Hawks or any other teams should do or will do. That is all.
Option 1: A New Big Three in the East
Dec 4, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) and Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) square off in the first half at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
Hawks Receive: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Dalton Knecht, Gary Trent Jr, Andre Jackson Jr
Bucks Receive: Kristaps Porzingis, Zaccharie Risacher, Gabe Vincent, Maxi Kleber, Asa Newell, 2026 1st-round pick (best of MIL/NOP), 2027 1st-round pick (top-4 protected, worst of MIL/NOP), 2029 1st-round pick (via ATL, unprotected), 2031 1st-round pick (top-3 protected, via LAL)
Lakers Receive: Onyeka Okongwu, Amir Coffey. N’Faly Dante
The pitch for the Hawks is pretty straightforward. They’d be making a trio of Giannis, Johnson and Young while keeping Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker as the ancillary pieces. Intriguing reserves like Vit Krejci and Mo Gueye would remain on the roster and the Hawks still have a few first-round picks to add supplementary pieces in the future. Portis and Trent are also both rotation-caliber players that can fill the roles of Porzingis and Risacher.
For salary reasons, they’d need to re-route center Onyeka Okongwu in this scenario and Los Angeles would be a perfect fit for him. The Lakers have consistently pursued a long-term starting center to pair with Luka Doncic and Okongwu would be a seamless fit. He’s already under contract for the long-term future and is only 24 years old. Okongwu has shown a ton of growth with Atlanta this year, especially as a jump shooter, and the Lakers would be elevating themselves closer to true contender status by adding him.
Milwaukee would be adding a total of four first-round picks, one of which is projected to finish as a top-three pick in a loaded 2026 draft class. Having a legitimate shot at Cam Boozer, AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson would be a very clean pivot. They’d also rapidly clear salary space in order to enter a rebuild by taking on Porzingis and Kleber’s expiring deals. The Bucks also get a chance at keeping their 2027 1st-round pick, which allows them to prepare for finding a new direction following Giannis. Zaccharie Risacher and Asa Newell are both intriguing young players who could eventually develop into useful players for the Bucks.
Option 2: Trae Young Finds a New Home
Mar 4, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) reacts with Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) after the Bucks defeated the Hawks at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Hawks Receive: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin, Cole Anthony
Mavericks Receive: Trae Young, Kyle Kuzma, 2032 1st-round pick swap (via MIL)
Bucks Receive: Anthony Davis, Kristaps Porzingis, Zaccharie Risacher, Asa Newell, 2026 1st-round pick (best of MIL/NOP), 2027 1st-round pick (top-4 protected, worst of MIL/NOP), 2029 1st-round pick (via ATL, unprotected), 2032 1st-round pick (top-3 protected, via ATL)
In this deal, the Hawks solve the Trae Young extension dillema and land Giannis in one fell swoop. They set themselves up for a long-term duo of Giannis and JJ while keeping Okongwu on the team. It allows Nickeil Alexander-Walker to keep his hold on the starting lineup while also creating a super-size starting lineup that has arguably the most two-way potential outside of Oklahoma City.
Dallas gets an experienced playmaker who can help foster Cooper Flagg’s development in Trae Young. The trio of Young, Kyrie and Flagg probably isn’t enough to win anything of significance in the Western Conference, but there’s no question that Young’s immediate floor as a playmaker makes the Mavericks a more serious threat to be a playoff team and expose Flagg to playoff basketball sooner rather than later. They also remove themselves from being entirely dependent on Kyrie returning to his old form following his torn ACL.
Milwaukee still recieves largely the same pieces from Atlanta, but adds a player who can keep the Bucks relevant in the Eastern Conference with Anthony Davis. Davis is not the player he once was, but he’d form an intriguing duo with Ryan Rollins and keep the Bucks defense at a respectable level.
Option 3: Cash In On Jalen Johnson’s Value
Dec 14, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) and Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) battle for a loose ball during the second half in a semifinal of the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images
Hawks Receive: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Gary Trent Jr, Ryan Rupert, Duop Reath
Bucks Receive: Jerami Grant, Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, 2027 1st-round pick (top-4 protected, worst of MIL/NOP), 2028 first-round pick swap (via MIL/POR), 2029 1st-round pick (via ATL, top-5 protected), 2030 1st-round pick swap (via MIL/POR)
Blazers Receive: Myles Turner, Ryan Rollins, Luke Kennard, 2026 1st-round pick (SAS/MIN/CLE/UTA swap rights)
This is by far the least desireable deal for the Hawks and the best deal for the Bucks. However, it does make some sense to swap out Johnson for Giannis if the Bucks star has interest and Atlanta is dead-set on pursuing Giannis. Both Johnson and Giannis are at their best with the ball in their hands and it’s traditionally harder to find a fit between two frontcourt ball-handlers. Look at the Celtics and Magic – both teams have wings who can dribble, pass and create offense. However, it’s taken them multiple seasons to find chemistry and translate that chemistry into success. Johnson and Giannis will likely operate in similar areas of the floor unless Johnson takes a massive leap as a shooter.
As soon as the Hawks trade for Giannis, they will be on a clock. They don’t have a ton of time to figure out a championship roster around the Greek superstar and while JJ is inarguably a more desireable player than Trae Young, the practicalities of balancing the touches and offense between him and Giannis are difficult. That’s not to say Young and Giannis are a match made in heaven. Trae is a traditionally ball-dominant player and hasn’t shot the ball well enough from deep or moved well enough off-ball to make him a perfect fit with Giannis. However, the offense would have a reliable go-to play with a Young-Giannis pick-and-roll. Giannis would be free to play as a help defender behind Young and the Hawks would still have NAW, Daniels and Okongwu in the fold. Antetokounmpo also has a copy – albeit imperfect – of the Brook Lopez mold in Kristaps Porzingis to serve as a shot-blocker in the paint who also spaces the floor.
The Bucks are getting Jalen Johnson and almost complete control over their foreseeable future. The price for that is steep – they lose the center they just traded for and a very promising young guard in Ryan Rollins. However, Milwaukee can actually embark on a true rebuild and has a budding franchise star in Jalen Johnson. They’d also have a somewhat competent team in the immediate future, so they’d have a shot of keeping their 2027 first-rounder.
The Blazers would be alright with giving the Bucks back their picks if they can get Turner and Rollins, who are the only players who have legitimate trade value on Milwaukee’s roster beyond Giannis. Portland’s starting five would then become Rollins, Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara and Myles Turner rotating in with Donovan Clingan. They could play Turner and Clingan together while bringing Toumani Camara off the bench as a two-way star. That’s a team that can certainly be a playoff team in a Western Conference that is wide open beyond the top three slots.