The Denver Nuggets have been so ravaged by injuries, resulting in a .500 record over their last eight games, that Wednesday’s road meeting with a 4-17 Indiana Pacers team that’s been infinitely more competitive as of late is by no means a lock for the visitors. 

Here’s an expert pick and player prop for this matchup at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on December 3, 2025, including an OVER on a points and rebounds combination prop for a little-known Nuggets starter that’s thrived as of late.

Nuggets vs. Pacers Betting Odds Tonight

Matchup: Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET

TeamSpreadMoneyTotalDenver Nuggets-7.5 (-110)-300O 235.5 (-110)Indiana Pacers+7.5 (-110)+245U 235.5 (-110)

Odds as of December 3, 2025 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Nuggets vs. Pacers Expert Picks Tonight

Indiana Pacers +7.5 (-110)

The Nuggets’ 14-6 record, good enough for the fifth-best record across the Association, doesn’t tell the whole story. Their offense has ranked first overall during the aforementioned eight-game stretch, scoring 125.7 points per 100 possessions, but the reason why that hasn’t resulted in anything more than a 4-4 mark is because they’re allowing 123.2 points per 100 possessions, which is dead last. Aaron Gordon has been out of action since Nov. 19 with a bad hamstring, Christian Braun has sat since Nov. 15 with a sprained ankle, and now Jamal Murray is even questionable for Wednesday’s tilt with Indiana after spraining his ankle during Monday’s 10-point loss to the Dallas Mavericks. Denver has only covered the spread three out of eight times, as well, and surprisingly, four of the five blown covers came at Ball Arena. On the road, it’s 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over its last nine attempts, with the latter at risk of taking another “L” on Wednesday.

The injury bug has run through the Pacers much more than their competition tonight, and that obviously all started during Game 7 of the Finals when superstar point guard Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles. T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith have missed a combined 20 games, although the former recently returned to action following a hamstring injury, and Obi Toppin has yet to play at all because of his foot. With bodies slowly returning, though, like current No. 2 scorer Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana has at least resembled a functional, complete basketball team, covering in six of its last seven outings and winning three of those games in the process. Unlike the Nuggets, playing in front of fans has helped spur some success for the Pacers, with all four of their wins coming at home with a 7-4 record ATS.

If Murray suits up, chances are he won’t be at 100 percent so quickly after hurting his ankle. This wager ultimately comes down to whether or not you trust Denver’s recent history on the road to uplift it once again over Indiana’s string of good fortune at home. I’m taking the Pacers if that’s the case, as they’re 6-3 ATS when betting underdogs of 7.5 points or more with three-straight covers, while the Nuggets have actually lost four of their last five games when favored by that much, having failed to cover each occasion. 

Nuggets vs. Pacers Player Prop Tonight

Peyton Watson OVER 19.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)

A Peyton Watson combination prop for points and rebounds has been a staple of my daily player props as of late, with this being the fourth time I’ve rolled the dice following three successful wagers on his production since Nov. 24. If Murray is unavailable, this bet looks even better, but that may not ultimately matter. Watson is averaging 15.7 points and 6.2 rebounds since entering the starting lineup on Nov. 15, and he’s gone OVER Wednesday’s mark of a 19.5 P+R in four of his last five appearances and five of his last seven for Denver. Indiana allows the fourth-most rebounds to the opposition at 47.7, as well, and Watson’s 11.1 shot attempts are behind only Murray and three-time league Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic during this stretch.

Nuggets vs. Pacers Betting Trends Tonight

*All trends courtesy of Outlier

Bruce Brown has failed to exceed 10.5 points + assists in four of his last five games vs. top-10 defenses for assists allowed (7.6 points + assists/game average)The OVER hit in 10 of the Denver Nuggets’ last 15 games on the road.Tim Hardaway Jr. has failed to exceed 2.5 3-pointers in seven of his last eight games (2.0 3-pointers/game average).Andrew Nembhard has failed to exceed 16.5 points in 12 of his last 15 games at home (12.1 points/game average).