Conference play is still about a month away, but there are already data points for the top teams, allowing for early projections.
College basketball is played by young athletes, and circumstances can change quickly. With that in mind, here is a look at how the top 25 could shape up as Selection Sunday approaches on March 15.
1.) Michigan Wolverines | Tier 1
This is going to be my top-ranked team until I get a reason to pivot.
The Wolverines have a pair of ranked victories in winning the Players Era Festival Tournament (Auburn and Gonzaga). While those results were encouraging, the manner in which they were achieved was even more notable.
In those games, it seemed like Yaxel Lendeborg found his footing. He made 12 of 20 shots at the event with 16 rebounds, seven assists, three blocks, and six steals. Those are obviously impressive numbers for one of the top players in the country, but what I liked most was the one foul and two turnovers across those 54 minutes.
Star freshmen naturally come with swings of production (Cooper Flagg shot 42.4% on two-pointers during March Madness last season), but Lendeborg should have over 100 games of experience under his belt before tournament play opens in March.
Is it too early to get excited for games against Purdue and Duke in a five-day stretch in the second half of February?
2.) Duke Blue Devils
Cameron Boozer is elite. We were pretty sure of that before seeing him step on a college court, and we are very sure about it now.
If Caleb Foster is the 44.8% shooter from three that he’s been through the first nine games, this team might not lose. I’m penciling in some regression for a player who shot 34.2% a season ago, but the early returns are great and give this team an outside game to complement its interior dominance.
The Blue Devils get Louisville twice in January. Stay perfect through that stretch, and they are going to be labeled as the title favorite.
3.) Purdue Boilermakers
The top team in the AP poll has looked the part thus far. Behind Braden Smith (four double-digit assist games in his first eight), this is the second-most-efficient offense in the nation, and I think that’s about as sticky as anything we’ve seen up to this point.
They have a win at Alabama and beat the brakes off Texas Tech at a neutral site (86-56). The high floor is what I love about this team, but I’m not sure functioning at the peak of their powers tops Duke or Michigan if those teams did the same. That’s more a nod to those teams than anything negative surrounding Purdue.
4.) Iowa State Cyclones | Tier 2
If, by February, one team has led the nation in both offense and defense for an extended stretch, the Cyclones would be the choice.
Through the first month, they own the top offense as it stands, and the defense remains as locked in as ever (second-highest steal percentage in the country).
There is, however, one significant concern. The Cyclones have struggled at the free-throw line, shooting under 70% and ranking outside the top 225 nationally. Free-throw shooting does not need to be a defining strength, but if the percentage remains at that level, a run to the Final Four will be difficult to achieve.
5.) Arizona Wildcats
Arizona had the best résumé of the first month, beating Florida, UCLA, and UConn. Koa Peat is the star and deserving of the headlines he’s getting, but Anthony Dell’Orso hung 20 on the Bruins in the Hall of Fame Series. If he’s ready to take a step forward in his second year with the program, a lot of upside opens up on both ends of the floor.
Two big games are coming up for the Wildcats (Auburn and Alabama). If they can look solid in those contests, the next time the schedule has teeth is in mid-February with Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, and Houston in succession.
6.) BYU Cougars
AJ Dybantsa looks the part.
The counting numbers are there (19.4 points and 59% on 2s), but it only takes five minutes of watching this team play for #3 to stick out.
The team around him is rostered in a sharp way: three teammates are shooting 40% from three, and if that sustains, we could be looking at a Final Four team.
If we are nitpicking, I want to see this team improve its sub-30% offensive rebound rate to help put points on the board when the deep ball isn’t falling. Again, that’s a minor concern as we sit here in early December.
7.) Louisville Cardinals
The Cards have split two tough matchups early in the season (a win over Kentucky and a loss in Arkansas), and Ryan Conwell continues to do his thing despite playing for a fourth school in as many years.
You never know how a skill set is going to transfer, but he’s flirting with 20 points nightly, and the collegiate game continues to have trouble slowing this 6-foot-4 guard from getting clean looks from three.
If Mikel Brown Jr.’s accuracy from distance improves as the freshman gains reps, the spacing of this offense moves from the good to the great tier.
The drive-and-kick nature of this offense is clicking (top 10 in assist-to-turnover rate), and that’s a scheme I like to back in must-win situations.
8.) UConn Huskies
They’ve won seven of eight to open the season with a tough schedule that included four ranked opponents in a five-game stretch.
Attention now turns to Tarris Reed Jr. and his ability to sustain production. He scored at least 19 points in each of his first three games but is managing ankle injuries, which are particularly concerning for frontcourt players.
If Reed establishes himself as a dominant presence inside, the ceiling is high given the experience of the backcourt. Without him performing at that level, however, the Huskies are likely to remain in the tier of very good teams rather than great ones.
9.) Houston Cougars
Through the first month, Houston has not impressed. The Cougars have shown inconsistency, which is concerning for a team that entered the season with championship-level expectations.
They nearly lost to Syracuse, a team not projected to reach the NCAA tournament, and were defeated the following night by Tennessee.
It is a long season, and those results may fade from memory in three months. Houston still has its core five intact, a unit as dangerous as any in the nation. If the bench develops as the season progresses, the Cougars remain a strong candidate to contend in the final week of the postseason.
10.) Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders have failed their two early tests, and that’s discouraging, but I do think this team has a top-10 floor in the sport, which makes them a threat to win games in bulk in March when the margins get tighter.
Tech has been led in scoring by either JT Toppin or Christian Anderson in every game this year. While a lack of depth could be viewed as an issue, the big-game experience of both makes them a tough tandem to slow when the chips are in the middle of the table.
This defense allows less than one-quarter of opponent points to come from downtown. In 2025, if you can chase teams off the three-point line, your ceiling rises in a meaningful way.
11.) Gonzaga Bulldogs
The Zags let go of the rope to end November with a 40-point loss to Michigan, but that projects as an outlier performance.
Branden Huff is shooting 62.8% from the field, giving this team a unique look next to Graham Ike. I’m not sure if a Twin Towers thing works in 2025, but in a sport that features so much similarity, could zagging result in favorable results come tournament time?
It’s early, but this looks like a matchup-driven selection when piecing together brackets come March. Over 60% of their buckets come inside the three-point line, so if you’re an old-school hoops fan, this is the team for you.
12.) Michigan State Spartans
Not all Tom Izzo teams find their rhythm immediately, but this group has been impressive. Michigan State went unbeaten through the first month of the season, and the Spartans assisted on more than 68% of their made field goals, a statistic that underscores their cohesion.
Izzo’s teams are known for developing chemistry as the season progresses. If this roster has already achieved that level of connection, the potential is considerable as players continue to refine their roles and elevate their collective performance.
13.) Vanderbilt Commodores | Tier 3
Vandy has held serve so far this season, and they have done so via balance. With eight players averaging at least eight points per game, the Commodores come at opponents in waves.
Senior Duke Miles, a sixth-year player coming over from Oklahoma, leads the way in scoring and profiles as their most dangerous offensive option. This isn’t a single-point-of-failure team, and that elevates their ceiling in a meaningful way.
14.) Florida Gators
The defending champs took Duke to the wire (led with 30 seconds remaining) in the ACC/SEC Challenge, with newcomer Boogie Fland hitting a shot that felt like a game-winner when it splashed through the net.
Every loss hurts, but that was an impressive showing less than a week after losing to TCU and a reminder of the talent on this roster. They are a top-five rebounding team as expected, and Thomas Haugh looks like a potential lottery pick. If he continues to show growth as he gets comfortable in this featured role, a repeat isn’t off the table.
15.) Tennessee Volunteers
After six straight blowout wins to open the season, the Vols played three tight games over the course of a week, dropping two of them. The question now is whether that experience in tight contests will prove valuable in March.
This is the top offensive-rebounding team in the country, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie has come over from Maryland in form (17.6 points and 5.4 assists through nine games).
16.) North Carolina Tar Heels
We saw UNC beat Kansas and Kentucky early in the season, and those are strong data points. The worry is the outside shooting — a weakness that gets more damning as the years pass.
That said, if Caleb Wilson’s early production is indicative of what to expect moving forward, the Tar Heels are well-positioned. Wilson has opened his college career with five double-doubles and converted 16 of 17 free throws over two games at the Fort Myers Tip-Off, an encouraging sign. With even average perimeter scoring, this team has the potential to make noise.
17.) Illinois Fighting Illini
We’ve already seen three different Illini players score 25+ points in a game, and that sort of offensive versatility is what makes them dangerous as the season wears on and defenses get more intentional in their game plans.
There is no single head of the snake to this offense. If you get in the weeds a little, this is a top-10 team in foul rate and top-20 in FT%. They win around the fringes, and that’s a common trait of teams that play in the second weekend during the tournament.
18.) Alabama Crimson Tide
The story is familiar: run-and-gun basketball. That style of play naturally creates some variance in results, but this team managed a demanding opening schedule effectively.
103-96 win over St. John’s
87-80 loss to Purdue
90-86 win over Illinois
95-85 loss to Gonzaga
Both losses were one-score games with under five minutes remaining. While the results matter, the competitive nature is important to note. The Tide are a top-10 offense in 2P% and top-20 in eFG%. The triples are going to fly, but this offense has a higher floor than most assume when picturing this style of play.
19.) Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky took a pair of ugly losses during the first two weeks of the season, which made a close loss to the Tar Heels to open December sting a little more.
Things should get better sooner than later, and we know they will get plenty of chances in conference play.
Through the first month, they are a guard-focused team that ranks top 20 in defense and rebounding. Generally speaking, that’s a profile that projects well. Otega Oweh has struggled to live up to the expectations he set last year; that should change in a big way moving forward.
20.) St. John’s Red Storm
I think patience is rewarded with the Red Storm.
They’ve dropped three of their first seven games, but all came against ranked teams, and we knew this was going to be a work in progress. Bryce Hopkins is working into form after playing in just 17 games during his final two seasons at Providence. He should be in a position to be a game wrecker with time if St. John’s continues to operate at a top-20 pace.
They get Kentucky at the CBS Sports Classic on Dec. 20: show me something there, and we are on our way to this being a Tier 3 team by the end of the regular season.
21.) Wisconsin Badgers | Tier 4
BYU handled them without an issue in their marquee November matchup, but this team is banking on a backcourt of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd, which has over 200 games of collegiate experience combined.
This is a solid team that carries more upside than they’ve shown up to this point if they start to prioritize putting pressure on the rim (173rd in percentage of points scored via free throws and 330th via 2PM).
22.) Arkansas Razorbacks
Holding your own against Duke in a game in which you shoot 33% from three and are -14 points in the paint should be viewed as a positive outcome. Arkansas is led by a dynamic backcourt averaging nearly 35 points, 8 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. Meleek Thomas and Darius Acuff Jr. are both freshmen, which will likely mean some bumps in the road.
This is a team that may take some lumps during the season, but if they are rounding into form by winter break, I can’t imagine any team wanting to face them.
23.) Kansas Jayhawks
Rock Chalk has taken three early losses this season, but that’s a risk that comes with loading up the schedule. The hamstring strain to Darryn Peterson obviously played into those results. While the hope is that he’s back sooner rather than later, his NBA future has to at least be considered, as they will likely handle him with kid gloves.
24.) Auburn Tigers
There is no denying the intrigue surrounding Tahaad Pettiford. He has been inconsistent at times this season, but his performance in the Players Era Festival game against St. John’s offered a glimpse of his potential. Pettiford scored 27 points on 10-of-19 shooting, showcasing the raw ability that could make him a reliable go-to option.
If the sophomore learns to harness that talent consistently, this team has the potential to be dangerous at the highest level.
25.) Missouri Tigers
Teams with experienced guard play and strong rebounding are always appealing. This may not be the most consistent group in the nation, but with five guards capable of scoring on any given night and a rebound rate above 58% to this point, the profile is compelling.