Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Pacers at Bulls on Friday.

How the mighty have fallen! After starting the season 6-1 and briefly topping the Eastern Conference, the Chicago Bulls have crashed down to earth, and at 9-12, they wouldn’t make the postseason if it started today. For a roster devoid of much top-end talent on paper, Chicago’s collapse after its hot start shouldn’t be surprising.

Tonight, the Bulls will host a team on the rise after a horrific start to the season. The reigning Eastern Conference champion Indiana Pacers started the season a pitiful 1-13, but after some improved health, they’ve been more competitive in recent weeks, beating Chicago on Saturday. The rematch will tip off at 8 p.m. ET.

Each team’s injury list is extremely long: Jalen Smith, Isaac Okoro, and Tre Jones are all doubtful for the Bulls, with Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, and Zach Collins questionable. In addition to the Pacers’ long-term injuries, Ben Sheppard will also miss tonight’s game with a calf strain.

Chicago is a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-198 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 237.5. Indiana is +164 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s divisional clash and offer my prediction.

Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls preview, prediction

It looks like another lost season in the dreaded middle for the Bulls, who are regular participants in the Play-In Tournament. They’ve looked pretty lifeless across their five-game losing streak, which included four defeats against teams not currently in the postseason picture, and they lost a critical development year for lottery pick Noa Essengue after it was determined that he would require season-ending shoulder surgery. It’s not all bad — Josh Giddey has emerged as a genuine All-Star contender and Matas Buzelis has improved as a defender — but Chicago’s path towards eventual contention still appears murky.

For the Pacers, 2025-26 is all about rebuilding the framework and developing young talent while preparing to jump back into contention in 2026-27, when Tyrese Haliburton returns from the torn Achilles that he suffered in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. In that respect, Indiana’s braintrust isn’t putting too much stock in the team’s 4-18 start. Instead, the Pacers should be focused on the positives: Andrew Nembhard has shot the ball well from beyond the arc, Pascal Siakam has embraced life as the No. 1 option and is putting up the second-highest scoring numbers of his career, and Jay Huff has replicated Myles Turner’s shooting and defense in much cheaper form.

Pacers at Bulls pick, best bet

This one is tricky to predict, given each team’s lengthy injury list, but solely based on recent form, the favorite should be clear. Over the last nine games, since getting Bennedict Mathurin back from injury, Indiana has posted just a negative-1.5 net rating, a league-average mark, while the Bulls have been 7.4 points per 100 possessions worse despite facing a much easier slate of opponents. Some of the hard-nosed defensive identity that helped carry the Pacers to the NBA Finals has returned, as they ranked near the top of the league in contested shots throughout the month of November. The offense is still a work in progress, but it, too, is pointing in the right direction.

Indiana’s rim protection hasn’t been quite as good as it was during last season’s run to the NBA Finals, but ranking near the league average might be enough for it to feel confident about its growth headed into an expected deep run next season. It could be a problem tonight against a Chicago team that attempts the most shots in the restricted area of any team, though the Bulls have made such shots at the lowest percentage. On the other end, the Pacers have converted tries at the rim at the second-lowest rate (though only the 11th-lowest since Mathurin’s return) while attempting them at roughly a league-average clip. They’ll have a chance to be more efficient tonight; no team has allowed more attempts or makes at the rim than the Bulls have.

Chicago will need to be aggressive and take advantage of Indiana’s biggest weakness, its league-leading foul rate, and it’ll also need to play disciplined basketball, given that the Pacers have excelled at drawing calls of their own. The teams are dead even in the turnover battle: Indiana has posted the eighth-fewest turnovers but the second-fewest steals, while the Bulls have recorded the 13th-most turnovers but only the eighth-fewest steals. Chicago has also excelled on the fast break and in transition, scoring the fourth-most fast-break points and allowing the seventh-fewest points off of turnovers, but both teams have struggled elsewhere.

Neither team has been particularly lucky or unlucky, as both rank near the middle of the pack in opponents’ wide-open three-point percentage, though it’s worth noting that the Bulls have allowed 2.2 fewer uncontested long-range tries per game than Indiana has. Offensively, Chicago has produced the most uncontested triples while canning them at a league-average rate, and it’s the Pacers who have arguably gotten unlucky, hitting their wide-open treys at the fourth-lowest clip. They’ve hit 35.4% of such shots this season after converting at a 39.8% rate last season, though some regression was expected without Haliburton.

With Nembhard returning to form after his shoulder injury, Siakam continuing to be a solid do-it-all type, and the shooting luck pendulum beginning to swing back in Indiana’s favor, the defending Eastern Conference champions should have enough to pull off the upset. The overall fundamentals are roughly even, but the Pacers’ better form and longer odds makes them the better bet.

Best bet: Indiana Pacers Moneyline (+164)