What happens with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will shift the entire NBA landscape. Much like how the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis deal changed last season’s trade deadline, much of the same could happen with this year’s trade market based on how Giannis’ decision unfolds.
Since well before the offseason, when talk of Antetokounmpo giving serious thought to his future in Milwaukee came to light, teams around the league have been dreaming of a scenario where the two-time MVP would become available in trade talks.
To say the Bucks have struggled as an organization in the postseason since Giannis led them to a championship in 2021 would be a major understatement. All Giannis wants is to win, and with the franchise’s position against the rest of the Eastern Conference’s hierarchy looking grim, the 30-year-old superstar is again thinking about his future, this time with dialogue between the Bucks and his representation.
However, the same day this news about Antetokounmpo sent the NBA trade machines into overdrive on Wednesday, Giannis suffered a concerning injury.
About three minutes into a key battle against the Detroit Pistons, who have made an early-season statement as the top team in the East, the Bucks’ star fell to the court in a heap, grabbing at his right calf/Achilles region with a somber look on his face.
Immediately, Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee went silent, as this non-contact leg injury and Giannis’ stunned expression reminded the Bucks’ faithful of what had just happened to Damian Lillard in April when he tore his Achilles tendon in the playoffs. It is almost as if the basketball gods were sending a message to Giannis in this moment, whether it be to stay or leave, being open for interpretation.
Although it took him a few moments, Giannis slowly got up and limped to the Bucks’ locker room on his own before quickly being ruled out for the remainder of Wednesday’s game with a right calf strain. We now know Antetokounmpo’s prognosis — no ligament or tendon damage, but a right calf strain that will keep him sidelined for 2 to 4 weeks.
Coincidentally enough, this was the timeframe Giannis and his agent were working with to fully discuss his future in Milwaukee with the Bucks’ leadership.
So what happens now?
Teams are obviously lining up to begin trade negotiations with the Bucks for one of the best players this league has ever seen, yet nothing has changed for executive Jon Horst and this organization. Giannis has not formally requested a trade, and while it sure seems like this is the likely path on the horizon for the nine-time All-Star, there’s no telling what will happen in Milwaukee between now and the Feb. 5 trade deadline.
Injured or not, though, Giannis’ upcoming decision has captivated the other 29 teams around the league. Until there is a resolution and a clear answer to his future in Milwaukee, the NBA trade market as a whole is put on hold.
What will Giannis Antetokounmpo decide?
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Was Wednesday night’s game, in which Giannis suffered his right calf strain, his final game in a Bucks uniform?
This is a valid question to ask right now, considering Antetokounmpo will be sidelined while he and his agent make a decision about the immediate future. It is hard to imagine that the Bucks will turn things around without their superstar on the court, and that is apparent by the team’s 1-5 record without him this season.
Ever since the offseason, the only word that has been associated with Antetokounmpo has been winning. He wants to win another championship, and he wants to be a part of an organization that is willing to make the moves needed to win with him.
Horst and the Bucks have certainly proven to be that type of organization since their last championship in 2021, as they have made countless moves to try and remain at the top of the Eastern Conference, most notably trading for Damian Lillard a few years back. Nobody can fault Horst, as he’s done all he possibly can to get Giannis the necessary help needed to compete in the East.
The only problem is that it hasn’t been enough, and the Greek star recognized that this past summer when he signaled to the organization that he would be extremely open to a trade to the New York Knicks.
As ESPN reported in October, the Bucks held direct talks with the Knicks regarding an “exclusive negotiating window” to trade for Giannis. Despite the Bucks continuing to signal that they did not want to trade Antetokounmpo, it truly appeared as if the organization was willing to give Giannis what he wanted should New York’s offer during these discussions in August be fair.
That never happened, as the Knicks’ main offer revolving around All-Star center Karl-Anthony Towns wasn’t valued by Milwaukee.
The Knicks went on to extend starting wing Mikal Bridges, and their depleted trade capital after landing both Bridges and Towns through the years leaves them with little room to make a highly competitive offer for the Bucks star.
While it is possible that the Knicks could be the team Giannis has at the top of his list outside of Milwaukee, it is very hard to envision that organization coming up with a better offer than what was proposed in August.
There are other teams around the NBA better positioned to pull off a blockbuster trade for Antetokounmpo right now, but everything revolves around what Giannis ultimately wants. Should he actually request a trade from the Bucks, Horst and his staff will work closely with Giannis and his agent to try and get him to the place he wants to be.
Nobody around the NBA believes that the Bucks would try to slight Antetokounmpo and send him somewhere he wouldn’t want to go, and it’s hard to believe any team in the league would give up all of their valuable assets in a trade for Giannis unless they knew he wanted to be there and sign a long-term extension.
Another part of the equation revolves around what the Bucks will want in a Giannis trade, something that has remained unknown. Now, they will have time to fully discuss this as an organization with Antetokounmpo sidelined and these conversations about his future being had.
The way the NBA trade market works, especially leading up to the Dec. 15 date when many players who signed this past offseason become trade-eligible, is that teams wait to see who jumps to the front of the line as the biggest sellers with the biggest names. Early on, it seemed like those names would be Ja Morant or Domantas Sabonis. Then it shifted to Anthony Davis.
Giannis and the Bucks are now solely at the front of the trade market.
This is a good and bad thing for the franchise. Obviously, losing Giannis is bad, but at the same time, they can be the ones to set the market for everything that will occur between now and Feb. 5. Not to mention, the Bucks can truly go out and get every team’s best offer for the two-time MVP. Milwaukee doesn’t have to worry about being jumped by another team or losing value from a team making some other trade.
Giannis is the best trade asset there could be in this league, and should he request a trade or the Bucks make him available for teams to submit offers for, you best believe Horst and his staff will get exactly what they want from any team Antetokounmpo could go to. Unlike Nico Harrison and the Dallas Mavericks, who got fleeced by the Lakers for Luka Doncic, Horst and the Bucks won’t settle whatsoever in their doomsday scenario of having to trade Giannis.
When looking around the league, attempting to figure out what makes the most sense for Giannis, several notable suitors stick out.
The Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks, and Toronto Raptors are three teams in the East, outside of the Knicks, who have been named as previous destinations for Antetokounmpo. Then again, his link to the Raptors was mainly because of executive Masai Ujiri, who is no longer in Toronto.
Miami and Atlanta could both put together very compelling trade packages for Antetokounmpo since these organizations have plenty of young talent and draft picks.
Pat Riley has been withholding the Heat’s best assets in trade talks through the years in hopes of a big-time star becoming available. Is this finally the opportunity for the Heat to add their next superstar in a package including Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and several draft picks? After all, Herro is from Milwaukee and grew up there before attending college at the University of Kentucky.
In Atlanta, Jalen Johnson obviously stands out as a young, rising All-Star Milwaukee would likely require in a trade for Antetokounmpo. It is highly unlikely the Hawks would part ways with Johnson, which leads to other assets like Onyeka Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher, and the highly coveted 2026 first-round pick swap that will either be Milwaukee’s or New Orleans’ pick.
However, would Giannis want to remain in the East if he wasn’t going to New York, and do either of these teams have what it takes to win a championship right away?
Over in the Western Conference, the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, and Golden State Warriors have long been linked to Antetokounmpo, specifically the Warriors.
Since 2020, Golden State owner Joe Lacob has long dreamed of a scenario where he could pair Giannis with Stephen Curry, and the Warriors have been unwilling to part ways with their young assets and future draft picks with the hope that the Bucks star would become available one day.
Well, that moment appears to be here, so will the Warriors relinquish their youth in Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, and others, as well as their future draft capital, for Giannis? Even if Golden State is all-in on pursuing Giannis, that wouldn’t be enough financially to make the trade work, as either Draymond Green or Jimmy Butler would need to be included.
The Warriors’ mindset has always been to keep Curry, Green, and head coach Steve Kerr together until they ultimately retire. That has not changed, and the organization remained true to this when Green was not involved in any trade dialogue last season, when the franchise was heavily pursuing Kevin Durant.
Trading Green is not something the Warriors plan on doing, and the only way this mindset would change is if all three of Green, Curry, and Kerr signed off on such a move. Draymond is the heart and soul of this Warriors organization, which is why Butler would be the one needing to be moved in any scenario for Antetokounmpo.
The Rockets and Spurs can each present better trade packages in a potential pursuit of Antetokounmpo. Whereas the Rockets have young talents, highlighted by Amen Thompson, and draft picks, the Spurs have the best assets out of any team in the league.
Along with draft picks, San Antonio’s backcourt trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper represents their path to potentially pulling off any trade they want. But this organization wasn’t willing to part ways with the second-overall pick, which ended up being Harper, before the 2025 NBA Draft, and it’s unlikely that the Spurs would do so now.
So many unknowns surround Antetokounmpo’s future. Until we know whether he wants to remain with the Bucks or be traded, there is no definitive answer as to which team has the best chance of potentially landing him.
East remaining quiet outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo
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As expected, many teams have gone quiet over the last week with anticipation of Giannis potentially becoming available on the open market. This can basically be said about the trade market as a whole, especially since nobody will blink until Antetokounmpo is either traded or expresses his desire to remain in Milwaukee.
Overall, the Eastern Conference as a whole doesn’t appear to be as active leading up to Dec. 15 as the Western Conference has been.
Even though speculation about the futures of stars like LaMelo Ball and Trae Young exists, neither of their organizations is approaching the trade season in desperation. Atlanta is looking forward to getting Young back on the court next to Jalen Johnson, who is likely to be a first-time All-Star this season, and the Hornets have yet to signal interest in trading LaMelo.
With this said, that won’t stop teams from inquiring about Ball, nor will it stop Charlotte from listening to what type of value they can potentially get. The same can be said about veteran forward Miles Bridges and other players like Josh Green and Grant Williams on the Hornets’ roster.
At the top of the East, more time and games are needed before any trade noise comes to light.
The Detroit Pistons, who teams continue to keep an eye on regarding a potential big move before the Feb. 5 trade deadline, are winning games and learning more about their youth in the process. Ausar Thompson, Jaden Ivey, and Isaiah Stewart continue to take big steps forward next to Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren.
Like the Pistons, the Toronto Raptors continue to signal that they believe in their core, which has led them to a 15-8 record after losing a heartbreaker to the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday night. Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram have been excellent playing next to one another, and RJ Barrett, despite missing six straight games with a knee sprain, has been an efficient secondary scorer.
Things in South Beach will get very interesting if Riley and the Heat are willing to push in all their chips in a potential Giannis trade. Outside of the noise surrounding Antetokounmpo, the Heat have gone from a team many expected to be potential sellers at the deadline entering the year to one that will be looking to buy.
Andrew Wiggins was a trade candidate for the Bucks and Lakers during the offseason. Although Los Angeles still has reported interest in Wiggins, the Heat have yet to signal that he is available on the trade market. The 30-year-old wing has been a key reason for Miami’s success early in the year, and it doesn’t appear as if the Heat will move him unless they secure a substantial upgrade next to their stars.
One team in the East that many around the league are keeping an eye on to see if they make a drastic move is the Cleveland Cavaliers. Nothing has gone right for the Cavs this season after winning 64 games a season ago, and frustrations appear to be setting in for All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell.
This organization was built to win right now, yet this team has been very mediocre at 13-10. Cleveland is a second apron team and is essentially handcuffed from pulling off any major roster change. Many teams around the NBA are wondering if mounting pressure will see the Cavs take calls on Jarrett Allen, who has a three-year, $90.7 million extension kicking in next season.
Unlike the Cavs, who are trending in the wrong direction, the Boston Celtics are surprisingly right in the mix near the top of the East despite not having Jayson Tatum. Both Jaylen Brown and Derrick White have elevated their play without Tatum, and the Celtics have won eight of their last 10 games overall.
After shaving cap numbers and trying to save money all offseason, it will be very interesting to see what Brad Stevens has up his sleeve at the trade deadline, especially with Anfernee Simons and his $27.6 million expiring contract. The word surrounding Boston is that they continue to feel out the market and are waiting patiently to see what potential moves open up.
Should a player like Los Angeles Clippers center Ivica Zubac truly become available, that could be the moment Stevens and the Celtics strike and secure a massive upgrade not just for now, but for years to come.
Even though the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are currently out of the playoff picture entirely in the East, both organizations find themselves in intriguing positions.
The Pacers, who are extremely balanced financially, have multiple players that rival teams have inquired about through the years, like Andrew Nembhard, TJ McConnell, and Aaron Nesmith. Despite this known interest, the Pacers are not expected to make a major roster change in anticipation of making another title push with Tyrese Haliburton during the 2026-27 season, league sources told ClutchPoints.
Any potential move the Pacers make to sell would likely involve Bennedict Mathurin, who will become a restricted free agent in the summer.
Chicago began the year 5-0 and looked like a potential threat in the East. Since then, this team has lost 12 of their last 16 games. It seems like it is only a matter of time before the Bulls make a move on the trade market, but could they pull off a major deal as buyers instead of sellers?
Speculation about the Bulls pursuing Dallas Mavericks star Anthony Davis continues to raise eyebrows across the NBA, and Chicago has the contracts to go out and get a star to pair with Josh Giddey long-term. Nobody really knows what to expect from the Bulls entering the early part of the trade season, even though it’s become clear they will be making some sort of trade.
Zion Williamson’s Pelicans future in doubt
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The Western Conference appears to be a lot more volatile entering the trade season than the East, and one of the clear sellers emerging before the Dec. 15 window opens is the New Orleans Pelicans.
Since firing head coach Willie Green after the team’s poor 2-10 start to the 2025-26 season, the Pelicans have gone 1-10 under interim head coach James Borrego. It is clear that New Orleans’ vision, if they even have one right now, is to build with rookies Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears, both of whom are performing at All-Rookie levels.
Outside of these two, the Pelicans are signaling that they are open for business and fielding offers for the players on their roster.
Zion Williamson is by far the most intriguing player whose future in New Orleans is very much up in the air at this point. The former first pick from the 2019 NBA Draft just can’t stay healthy enough for the Pelicans to keep him, and the narrative that new EVP Joe Dumars believes in Williamson has changed, sources said.
A few years back, it seemed like Williamson, an All-NBA-level talent, would completely change the trajectory of this franchise. That has not occurred as a result of his availability concerns, and now the organization is opening up dialogue with teams around the league about their potential interest in Williamson.
As a result, one league source who spoke with ClutchPoints expressed belief that New Orleans would accept the “first decent, reasonable offer” they receive for Zion.
The Pelicans clearly don’t want to cut Williamson only for him to sign with another team, but he virtually holds no value on the trade market at this time. It is hard to believe the organization will receive offers of anything more than second-round picks for him.
While Williamson is not generating a ton of trade interest, both Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III have been hot commodities since last year. There has been no shortage of interest in either young wing around the league, and multiple teams are already expressing heavy trade interest in Jones, specifically the Lakers and Warriors, sources said.
Through the years, the Pelicans signaled that Jones was not available in trade talks, and Dumars operated with a similar mindset when he took over the front office this past summer. Given the team’s struggles and clear need for future assets, the chances of a trade involving Jones have grown exponentially since the start of the season.
Expect a bidding war to take place for Jones leading up to the trade deadline, with more than Los Angeles and Golden State getting involved.
Murphy’s situation is slightly different.
The Pelicans still really like Murphy’s value and his overall potential next to Fears and Queen, which is why he has a steep asking price. There is a growing belief that Murphy III will be pushed as the face of the franchise, according to ClutchPoints’ Pelicans insider Chris Dodson, and it would take multiple first-round picks and a decent prospect for New Orleans to relinquish him.
Jose Alvarado continues to generate interest from a variety of teams looking to upgrade their backcourt talent, and some eyes have turned to whether the Pelicans would consider moving on from 2024-25 All-Rookie center Yves Missi. The 21-year-old high-flying center has seen his role decrease in Year 2 with New Orleans, and several teams, including the Lakers, would be willing to give up a first-round pick for him.
It will also be very interesting to monitor Jordan Poole’s status with the organization.
After trading CJ McCollum for Poole in the offseason, a move many around the league questioned at the time, Poole’s status with the Pelicans has suddenly come into question. The emergence of Fears in his rookie season and Dejounte Murray targeting a return to the court in January has suddenly made Poole expendable to the Pelicans.
Poole will make $31.8 million this season and $34 million next season before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2027, which is why he could wind up having some suitors before Feb. 5. After all, he is a former NBA champion with the Warriors and was a key scoring weapon for them off the bench.
While his contract could be tough to maneuver without giving up a key talent in return, any team in need of scoring and backcourt help will surely take a look at Poole once he returns from his quad strain. The Pelicans are signaling that he won’t be a part of their long-term plans.
Lakers, Clippers heading in two different directions
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The Los Angeles Lakers and LA Clippers were expected to be two title-contending teams in the West this season. This is definitely true for Luka Doncic and the Lakers, as their 16-5 start has them trailing only the Oklahoma City Thunder in the standings.
However, the Clippers are near the bottom of the league at 6-16 and desperately need to turn things around before the calendar flips to 2026 if they are to have any chance of making the playoffs.
Whereas the Lakers have been playing with joy and approaching the trade season with optimism, the Clippers have been the center of drama in the NBA after sending Chris Paul home and cutting ties with arguably the best player in franchise history.
What happens now for the Clippers is the big question everyone is asking.
If Tyronn Lue’s group doesn’t turn things around over the next few weeks and they continue to struggle, will James Harden or Kawhi Leonard be moved? The Clippers can’t really tank since the Thunder own their 2026 first-round pick, so is Lawrence Frank forced to sacrifice more assets to try and win with Harden and Leonard this year?
Could this lead to Ivica Zubac or a secondary player like Derrick Jones Jr. being moved for value? Zubac is already generating plenty of interest, and his three-year, $58.6 million contract is exactly the type of deal teams around the NBA want.
There have been mixed signals around the league from teams that have contacted the Clippers about Zubac and if they are actually willing to discuss his name in trade talks, but the early indication is that Los Angeles would demand at least two first-round picks, sources said.
Zubac has received the most interest out of any player on the Clippers entering December, as multiple Eastern and Western Conference teams in playoff position have called Los Angeles to get info on their starting center.
Although a lot of unknowns surround the Clippers at this time, one known fact is that the organization is shopping John Collins and attempting to add a consistent scoring threat. This is ironic, especially given that the organization traded this exact player, Norman Powell, to the Heat this offseason to land Collins.
Time will tell what direction the Clippers go in.
For those supporting the Lakers in Los Angeles, things really couldn’t be much better. Austin Reaves is playing at an All-Star level, Doncic is playing at an MVP level, and LeBron James is back in the mix.
Obviously, all of the Giannis rumors have made their way to the Lakers’ faithful, who are demanding that their team get involved for the two-time MVP, but that scenario is nothing more than a dream in NBA 2K. The Lakers have nothing of value that they could trade the Bucks for Giannis compared to other teams around the league, which is why a big move isn’t on the horizon for this team.
Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office aren’t in any rush to try and make a trade, unlike when they quickly looked to secure Dorian Finney-Smith around this time of the year last season.
JJ Redick is getting the most out of his team right now, and Los Angeles has been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA as of late. There is no reason for the front office to want to mix things up, which is why the Lakers are taking their time to evaluate the trade market and let all the unknowns become clearer before figuring out their plan for Feb. 5.
Lakers fans always want their team to make a trade, but for once, there is no pressure in downtown LA for a move to be made. Giannis may be the dream, but Luka is their reality, and his leadership has this organization on a championship trajectory right now.