Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets matchup on Friday as part of the 12-game NBA schedule.

For the first time since this summer’s blockbuster trade, Kevin Durant faces off against the his former team with a date against the Phoenix Suns on tonight’s schedule. The Houston Rockets are a true contender with KD, but the Suns are scrappy underdogs playing surprisingly competitive basketball. With a grudge match on deck with plenty of drama on the side, which side will come out on top?

Here’s a Suns vs. Rockets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s game.

Suns vs. Rockets prediction, preview

Where should we start with this Suns squad? It seemed this team was destined for the NBA’s basement when Durant was shipped out of town for Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and a first-round pick over the offseason, but Phoenix continues to play with a chip on its shoulder as a thorn in the side of opponents. The unit is 13-9 and 12th in NETRTG (+3.4) behind the efforts of Booker and a band of misfit role players. The superstar guard signed a massive extension prior to the beginning of the campaign and has backed up the payday with 25.0 PPG and 6.7 assists so far, but he’ll miss tonight’s outing due to a groin strain. Brooks posts 22.3 PPG himself as the second option in the offense and sees another chance to compete against the team that traded him, and Grayson Allen keeps playing like a premier sharpshooter with 17.9 PPG while hitting 43.8% of his three-point attempts. Defensively, the Suns shine with the eighth-fewest PPG allowed to opponents and 12th-best DEFRTG in the league, so there’s infrastructure to succeed here even despite a lack of true stars in the starting five.

The Rockets have no such shortage of star power with Durant and Alperen Sengun powering one of the Western Conference’s best teams. Houston holds a 14-5 record and has arguably underperformed comparatively to a +11.6 NETRTG, second-best in the entire NBA. Durant’s 25.0 PPG lead the team as the iconic scorer approaches 31,000 career points, but one can argue Sengun is the best player on the team — with 23.1 PPG plus a team-high 9.1 rebounds and 7.1 assists, the Turkish big man is making a real case for the first All-NBA nod of his career. Amen Thompson (17.2 PPG) and Jabari Smith Jr. (14.8 PPG) play key roles as two-way wings, and Reed Sheppard has made strides in a larger role lately with 13.2 PPG while connecting on 45.0% of his shots from beyond the arc. The Rockets are elite on both ends of the floor with top-four rankings in PPG, OFFRTG, opponent PPG allowed and DEFRTG, so this looks like a very formidable group as they dominate the offensive glass and impose their will defensively.

Suns vs. Rockets pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as -10.5 favorites at home tonight with -485 odds on the Moneyline. The Suns are +370 underdogs to win outright with the game total set at 220.5. As for betting splits, 88% of straight bets are on Houston to win outright.

It’s quite disappointing that Booker won’t play tonight, and even more so that Jalen Green (hamstring) remains sidelined and won’t face his own former team either. This is the second matchup of the season between these two squads, but Durant didn’t play in the first one himself. For the Rockets tonight, Sengun is questionable with an illness but the injury report is otherwise clean aside from Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith and Fred VanVleet as each deal with more long-term ailments.

Without Booker, the Suns don’t seem to stand a chance tonight. The star guard is the primary scorer and initiator for his team and has largely excelled with those added playmaking responsibilities over the last year, so losing him has been a huge hit to this squad. It’s pushed Collin Gillespie into the starting lineup, and while he’s played very well with 13.4 PPG and 5.0 assists while shooting 44.2% from beyond the arc, he’ll face a very difficult matchup against this Rockets defense that he may not be prepared for. Brooks himself can be an unpredictable force on offense, and there’s not exactly an abundance of shot creators elsewhere on the roster.

Even if Sengun doesn’t play, Houston should win this game without much effort. The array of defenders the Rockets can throw at their opponents are quite impressive, and both Thompson and Sheppard have shown an ability to step into large roles in the offensive game plan themselves to fill the void. Despite the Suns being 6-4 ATS on the road, the loss of Booker will prove too much to cope with.

Top pick: HOU Rockets -10.5 (-110)