Duke basketball is on the road for its toughest test yet, taking on No. 8/7 Michigan State at the Breslin Center on Saturday, Dec. 6, in a battle between two undefeated teams.
The No. 4 Blue Devils (9-0) and Spartans (8-0) will tip off at noon on Fox. Duke leads the all-time series and has won the last eight out of 10 meetings with Michigan State.
It marks the end of a three-game stretch against ranked opponents for Duke. The Blue Devils opened the stretch with an 80-71 win over Arkansas on Nov. 27 and followed it with a 67-66 win over Florida on Dec. 2 behind an Isaiah Evans go-ahead 3-pointer.
Michigan State is coming off a 71-52 win over No. 25/NR Iowa on Dec. 2 for the Spartans fourth win over a ranked opponent this season. Michigan State also has wins over Arkansas (69-66), Kentucky (83-66) and North Carolina (74-58).
Here are some things to know and a score prediction for Duke’s matchup with Michigan State:
Battle between efficient teams
Duke enters the contest with the sixth-most efficient offense per KenPom analytics and has the third-highest 2-point percentage, shooting 64.7% inside the arc. Duke’s defense is highly efficient, too. Per Kenpom, it ranks fifth in defensive efficiency and is No. 1 in effective field goal percentage (40.3%), holding teams to 41.4% on 2-point tries and 25.9% from 3.
Michigan State counters with one of the nation’s best defenses. The Spartans rank third in defensive efficiency, limiting opponents to 46% shooting inside the arc and 28.2% from 3-point range. Michigan State also crashes the boards effectively, ranking seventh nationally in offensive rebounding (42.4%), giving them extra opportunities to score and extend possessions.
Cameron Boozer, Duke frontcourt vs. Jaxon Kohler, MSU frontcourt
Duke freshman Cameron Boozer, the top-rated player per KenPom, leads the Blue Devils in points per game (23.6), rebounds (9.3), assists (3.7) and steals (1.7). He has posted four double-doubles on the year and is projected to be a top-5 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. Joining him in the Duke frontcourt is Patrick Ngogba II, the team’s second-leading scorer at 12.6 points per game (tied with Isaiah Evans).
Michigan State counters with forward Jaxon Kohler, who averages 14.3 points, 9.9 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game to lead the team. The Spartans’ big man provides a strong inside presence, grabbing rebounds, scoring efficiently in the paint (57.7%), from deep (42.0%) and helping to anchor MSU’s top-three-ranked defense.
Duke does hold the height advantage, with its roster averaging 79.4″ (fifth in the NCAA) compared to Michigan State’s 78.7″ (18th).
Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State offense
The Spartans possess the NCAA leader in assists per game in their primary facilitator, guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (9.4 per game). Fears Jr. has four games with 10 or more assists and has recorded nine in two others. He is also second on the team in scoring behind Kohler with 12.3 per game, shooting 48.3 from the field and 42.1% from 3, and leads the team with 1.6 steals per game.
Michigan State’s offense as a whole has three players averaging in double digits in Kohler, Fears Jr. and forward Coen Carr (11.3). It ranks No. 32 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Spartans also will have Cam Ward back in the lineup after missing the Iowa game after suffering a sprained wrist vs. UNC on Thanksgiving.
Duke vs Michigan State score prediction
Duke 70, Michigan State 68: Tom Izzo looks to improve his 13-4 all-time record against Duke, but the Spartans have never beaten the Blue Devils at home. Michigan State is 5-0 at the Breslin Center this season, while Duke is 1-0 on the road. The Blue Devils’ balance and efficiency on both sides of the court, led by Cameron Boozer, give them the edge in a close matchup.
Anna Snyder covers Duke for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at asnyder@usatodayco.com or follow her @annaesnydr on X, formerly known as Twitter.