About a month and a half into the season we’ve seen a few notable players fly up the draft board and a few big name prospects take a tumble. While it’s still early and there’s time for things to level out, we’ve seen enough so far to make some big changes on the draft board.

The biggest name to fall on the board is Nate Ament who started the season as a projected top 5 pick but has slid down the board after an underwhelming start to the season. And the biggest riser is Houston guard Kingston Flemings who has catapulted up the board, all the way into the top half of the lottery.

Here’s a look at a few of the biggest risers and fallers and some thoughts on their draft projection:

Risers

Milon Momcilovic – SF – Iowa State – Milon might be the best 3pt shooter in college basketball. He’s also 6-8 with solid movement skills and a high feel. He’s a bit one-dimensional and doesn’t provide big value on defense or as a play-maker but his shooting gravity warps the defense so much that he’s having an impact on the game even when he’s not touching the ball. I would love to see him take the next step with his ball handling and show a bit more on-ball creation but perhaps that will come with time. For now he’s an elite 3pt shooter who could bring a lot of value to a NBA team. I had him ranked near the end of the second round to start the season and he’s now risen to near the top of the second round, with the possibility of moving into the first if he continues this torrid pace.

Aday Mara – C – Michigan – The 7-3 Spaniard had a rough two seasons at UCLA before transferring to Michigan. I was way too high on Mara when he first came over to the U.S., seeing him as a high lottery pick. But it’s taken him a bit of time to adjust to the college game and to develop his strength and athleticism. Now, I think there’s a chance he’s a first rounder if he comes out this year but could see him really dominating college ball if he stays through his senior season (think Zach Edey) and being a very high pick in 2027.

Morez Johnson Jr. – PF/C – Michigan – I was high on Johnson coming into the season but not high enough. The rugged 6-9 PF/C is becoming a dominant force in college basketball (on arguably the best team in college basketball). He’s more of an old school center who throws his weight around inside but he’s also showing some jump shooting ability and has been hitting the occasional 3. While this isn’t yet a big part of his game it’s easy to project that he’ll be spacing the floor a bit in a few years.

Kingston Flemings – PG – Houston – Flemings has been sensational to start his college career and is sky-rocketing up draft boards. There’s even a chance he ends up as the first guard taken after DP and could break into the top 5. The 6-3 guard has explosive athleticism, plays a really smart game and has been shooting the cover off the ball.

Keyshawn Hall – SF – Auburn – The UCF transfer is off to a blazing hot start for Auburn. The 6-7 forward is a really smooth 3pt shooter who lets it fly with confidence. Through 9 games he’s hitting over 44% of his 3pt shots and over 90% from the line. He’s got good size and a strength and looks to be a fairly NBA ready prospect. After having him off my draft board to start the season he’s risen into the mid second round consideration.

Keaton Wagler – SG – Illinois – Wagler has been a steadily rising player for about a year now and continues to move up the rankings. He’s a smooth 6-6 guard with a nice shooting stroke and just looks the part of a NBA wing. He’s got some self-creation ability and can put the ball on the deck. He’ll have to get stronger and could be well served to spend another year in school, or could be a pre-draft guy this year.

Fallers

Nate Ament – Forward – Tennessee – Amen was pretty much a consensus top 5 prospect coming into the season but has had some struggles so far. Through 8 games he’s shooting just 28% from downtown and 37% overall for 16.3 point per game. But more importantly the eye test has been a struggle, as Ament has looked somewhat slow and unable to gain separation from defenders. He’s been mostly limited to spotting up from 3 or taking mid range jumpers and doesn’t put pressure on the rim. He is rebounding the ball well and has had some good scoring half’s. But right now it’s hard to imagine him as a top 5 pick and perhaps not even a top 10 pick.

Dame Sarr – SF – Duke – The high flying Italian wing has shown some really good stuff early in his Duke career but he’s also shown that he’s a long ways way from being NBA ready. The defense has been impressive but the offensive is a work in progress. After having him ranked near the lottery to start the season I’m starting to see Sarr as a possible 2 or 3 year college player.

Cayden Boozer – PG – Duke – I was really high on Cayden coming into the season, thinking he could be a one and done first rounder. That’s still a possibility but from what we’ve seen so far he looks like he could use some seasoning in college before making the jump to the NBA. He’s playing behind veteran guard Caleb Foster and has seen his minutes somewhat limited and when he is on the court he looks like a solid facilitator who lacks touch on his jumper and doesn’t space the floor. This isn’t breaking news but it’s a bit disappointing to see that his jumper hasn’t taken the next step and become more of a threat. It’ll be really interesting to see if he joins his brother in the 2026 draft or decides to stay in school.

JT Toppin – PF – Texas Tech – It’s not often that you see a guy averaging 22 and 11 fall on draft boards but I think I just had Toppin too high to start the season and imagined that he’d take a next step with his shooting and floor spacing. So far this season, in only 7 games, he’s shooting 12.5% from 3pt range and doesn’t look to be moving in the direction of a floor spacing forward any time soon. He’s a really good college player who has an uncanny knack for scoring inside but his projection to the NBA level is unclear, which probably makes him a second rounder at best, and not a late first rounder like I originally projected.

See where these player rank in my latest 2026 NBA Mock Draft