Sam Connon takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for Monday’s NBA game between the San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans.

The San Antonio Spurs (15-7) and New Orleans Pelicans (3-21) are set to face off Monday night, going head-to-head at Smoothie King Center. The contest will tip off at 8 p.m. ET.

The Spurs are 9.5-point favorites at home with -440 moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 238.5 points. Here is a preview of the Western Conference showdown featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spurs vs. Pelicans Preview

Spurs Preview

Victor Wembanyama, who has missed San Antonio’s last 10 games with a calf injury, went through a full practice on Sunday. And yet, the Spurs still ruled the 7-foot-4 superstar out for Monday. Guard Jordan McLaughlin is also out with a hamstring injury. Center Luke Kornet, meanwhile, is questionable with an ankle injury.

Stephon Castle, on the other hand, is making his return Monday. Castle has been out since Nov. 16 with a hip injury. Before he went down, Castle was averaging 17.3 points, 7.5 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game. Castle will hop back into the backcourt alongside De’Aaron Fox, who is averaging 25.0 points, 6.5 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game through 14 contests. Monday will mark the first time that Castle, Fox and rookie Dylan Harper are all active at the same time. Devin Vassell and Harrison Barnes, on the other hand, have yet to miss a game. The former is averaging 16.2 points per game on 40.1% three-point shooting, while the latter is averaging 12.9 points per game on 42.5% three-point shooting.

San Antonio is coming off a 13-point loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. It is now 4-3 on its ongoing road trip and 7-5 in away games on the whole this season. The Spurs rank No. 7 with 118.9 points per game, which is actually up from their 118.4 points per game prior to Wembanyama’s injury. Their opponents, meanwhile, have gone from scoring 112.3 points per game to 117.2 points per game in Wembanyama’s absence.

Pelicans Preview

New Orleans got out to a 2-10 start this season before it fired coach Willie Green. It is 1-11 under interim coach James Borrego – a former Spurs assistant under Gregg Popovich. The Pelicans’ only win during that stretch came against the Chicago Bulls, who are 4-14 since their 5-0 start.

Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole are both out for Monday’s contest with a right adductor strain and left quad strain, respectively. Dejounte Murray won’t return from his torn Achilles for at least another month, either. Forward Herbert Jones could wind up missing his ninth straight game with a right calf strain, since he is questionable for Monday as well.

The injury bug has left Trey Murphy III as the Pelicans’ go-to scorer at 20.5 points per game. Murphy’s 61% true shooting percentage also ranks No. 1 among qualified New Orleans players, so he has been efficient in a leading role. Rookie guard Jeremiah Fears ranks second on the team with 15.8 points per game, while rookie big man Derik Queen ranks fourth with 12.0 points per game. Murphy and Queen are also the Pelicans’ top-two rebounders with 6.5 and 6.3 rebounds a night, respectively. Saddiq Bey is the only other active New Orleans player averaging more than 9.0 points per game at 14.2.

The Pelicans are allowing 122.6 points per 100 possessions, which ranks No. 29 across the NBA. The 111.7 points they score per 100 possessions ranks No. 26.

Spurs at Pelicans Pick, Best Bet

The Spurs and Pelicans have already played twice this season. San Antonio won both of the previous matchups, escaping with a 120-116 overtime victory on Oct. 24 before winning 126-119 on Nov. 8. One of those games cleared 237.5 points, while the other did not. The Spurs didn’t win by double-digits in either of those meetings, either, which is notable given Monday’s 9.5-point spread. Only four of San Antonio’s 10 Wembanyama-less games have gone over Monday’s point total. As for the Pelicans, seven of their 12 games under Borrego have failed to exceed 237.5 total points. If Herbert Jones and Luke Kornet are active as expected, bringing their defensive talents to the table on both sides of the showdown, maybe they will tip the scales toward the under.

If you’re looking to go with a player prop, Castle has some potentially friendly lines depending on his own health. The 21-year-old was averaging 32.5 points plus rebounds plus assists per game before his injury, and his over/under line is currently sitting at just 24.5. He cleared that mark in 11 of his first 12 games this season, only failing to go over on Oct. 26 and Nov. 16 – when he only played 15 minutes before exiting the contest with his hip issue. Castle could be on a minutes restriction Monday given his extended absence, making this a slightly risky pick, but if he gets anywhere near his normal usage then the over seems very likely.

Best Bet: Spurs vs. Pelicans under 237.5 Points (-112)

Strong Lean: Stephon Castle over 24.5 points + Rebounds + Assists (+101)