Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for tonight’s matchup between the Magic and the Heat.
The Magic are hosting the Heat for an NBA Cup quarterfinal matchup Tuesday. The winner of this matchup will face the winner of Tuesday’s matchup between the Raptors and Knicks in the semifinals Saturday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Heat are a 1.5-point favorite over the Magic for Tuesday’s contest and this game carries a total of 235.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Magic vs. Heat preview, prediction
These two Southeast division rivals that know each other very well have already faced each other twice this season. The Magic took both of these matchups, but only by four and one points, and both these clubs will be in different situations tonight. Orlando notably had Franz Wagner for each of its first two matchups with Miami, but the forward will be out tonight with a sprained ankle. Meanwhile, Tyler Herro missed both of the Heat’s first two matchups with the Magic, but he is probable to play tonight as he deals with a toe injury.
Wagner has been Orlando’s top player this season, averaging 22.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 49% from the field, as the team is 14-10 and ranks eighth in net rating. However, the Magic are just 8-14 with the forward inactive the last two seasons and Orlando just lost 106-100 to the Knicks on Sunday after Wagner exited only seven minutes into the contest. All that being said, Wagner is actually negative in net rating this season and with him off the floor, the Magic’s net rating is actually 3.7 points better.
This is mostly due to Orlando being stronger defensively without Wagner, as its defensive rating is 3.5 points better with him off the court. The Magic’s offensive rating barely changes, but one would have to expect their offensive numbers to decline with Wagner out for the foreseeable future. With Wagner absent, Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs and Desmond Bane will all take on larger roles. With Wagner off the floor this season, Banchero, Suggs and Bane lead Orlando in usage rate at 32.2%, 31.6% and 29.6%, respectively. The problem is, tonight will only be Banchero’s third game back after missing 10 in a row with a groin injury and he has been limited and rusty in his first two starts back, logging just 22.8 minutes per game and shooting just 36.8% from the floor.
With this being an NBA Cup game, Banchero should approach 30 minutes tonight, but the team likely will keep him under that threshold. Plus, his shooting woes could continue against this Heat team that ranks sixth in defensive rating this season and if Banchero struggles to fill Wagner’s void offensively, the Magic could be in trouble.
After being one of the slowest teams in the NBA for many years, the Heat lead the NBA in pace this season and they own the same record as the Magic at 14-10, but Miami sits two spots lower in net rating at 10th. The Heat are led by Herro, Bam Adebayo and Norman Powell, who has been an excellent fit for the club this season, averaging a team-high 24.8 PPG.
Powell is a strong scorer to pair with Herro, which is something the team has lacked since Jimmy Butler’s departure. Meanwhile, Adebayo is a decent offensive threat that continues to be one of the best defenders in the association. With Adebayo on the floor this season, Miami owns an elite 107.9 defensive rating and as a result, the center leads the Heat in plus/minus.
Then there is Jaime Jaquez Jr., who is the favorite to win the Sixth Man of the Year award on DraftKings Sportsbook at +400, as he is having a career season, averaging 15.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game off the bench for Miami. While Jaquez Jr.’s numbers are inflated as Herro has missed 19 games this season and those numbers will decline going forward with Herro healthy again, Jaquez Jr. has been tremendous defensively and he should continue to make a big impact on that end of the floor. With Jaquez Jr. on the court this season, the Heat’s defensive rating improves to 105.0. Miami is strong on paper, but the team is still trying to find its rhythm with Herro back, as the club is just 3-2 in his five starts this season. Facing the division-rivaled Magic will be a compelling test tonight, especially with this game in Orlando, as the Heat are just 4-7 on the road, whereas the Magic are 9-4 at home.
Magic vs. Heat pick, best bet
While the Heat’s play on the road this season is concerning, they are at full strength with Herro healthy, while the Magic are down arguably their best player in Wagner and Banchero is still to trying to find his groove as he works his way back. Backing the Heat to win on the moneyline at -112 is a decent wager, but I have more confidence in backing this game to go under its total of 235.5 points.
While Miami is the fastest team in the NBA, both the Heat and Magic are great defensive clubs. The defensive intensity should be elevated with this being the NBA Cup quarterfinals and 235.5 points just feels too high for this setting.
Best Bet: Under 235.5 Points (-112)