Sham Charania of ESPN released a report yesterday that sent social media into a frenzy of fake trades. We’re just a few days away from December 15th when players who signed contracts this summer are eligible to be traded, so these rumors are to be expected. However, this is the first time in a long time where the Pistons are expected to be buyers instead of sellers.
First, let’s dig in to Shams’ report:
Dallas Mavericks forward Anthony Davis, another former NBA champion, is expected to be a critical trade target of several teams, including many of the East’s contenders. The Detroit Pistons, Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors are expected to be suitors for Davis, league sources told ESPN.
What does “expected to be suitors” even mean? They’re not currently suitors, but he expects them to show interest at some point soon? This doesn’t feel like a report – more like Rich Paul agent-talk.
The Pistons (19-5), Raptors (15-10) and Hawks (14-11) represent high-level threats in the East and are having seasons that give hope that a player like Davis — a 10-time All-Star who has spent his entire career in the Western Conference — can elevate them into a viable championship-quality team.
This just doesn’t feel like quality reporting – Shams quotes a Bucks source and a Bucks player when he’s discussing Giannis Antetokounmpo, but shares no quotes when it comes to Anthony Davis.
But, for the sake of the argument, let’s assume the Pistons are actually interested in Davis.
First, Anthony Davis is in his first year of a 3-year/$175 million contract that has a player option in the third year when he’ll turn 34. He’ll then be eligible for a 4-year/$275 million extension that would pay him $76 million in his final year when he turns 37.
That’s a lot of money for someone who has the nicknames “Street Clothes” and “Day-to-Day Davis.” Since being traded from New Orleans to Los Angeles when he was 26, he has played in 63 or more games just once in the past six seasons. The Dallas Mavericks have played in 25 games so far this season and AD has already missed 15 of them. It’s pretty much a guarantee that Davis will miss 20-30 games every year, if not more.
I remember Detroit Bad Boys discussing Trajan Langdon’s first acquisitions of Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Malik Beasley and how their best ability was their availability – marathon men who rarely missed games. The Duncan Robinson trade this summer is another example of acquiring players who stay on the court. Trading for Anthony Davis doesn’t seem like a Trajan Langdon type of move given how frequently he misses games.
So, what would a trade for Davis actually look like?
Well, he’s making $54 million this year so Tobias Harris and his $26 million contract would have to be involved. Jaden Ivey would most likely be the young piece and Caris LeVert’s $14 million helps make the money match.
I have to imagine those three aren’t enough to get the deal done, so how many first-rounders would have to be added? One? Two? Three?!
I’m not sure I would do the above deal even if there were no picks included. That is a monster contract for someone that gets a court-side seat to watch his team play for a good chunk of every season. Why shouldn’t Dallas have to attach assets to get off of his contract instead?
To be blunt, the fit is gross.
Let’s assume that the proposed trade above happened so we can take a look at the rotation:
Cade Cunningham/Daniss JenkinsDuncan Robinson/Marcus SasserAusar Thompson/Ron HollandAnthony Davis/Isaiah StewartJalen Duren/Paul Reed
Is this team better than the current team?
You’d be relying on three current third-stringers to handle large bench minutes, and any depth that you had at the guard position is now gone. Daniss Jenkins becomes your starting PG if Cade gets hurt and Ausar/Sasser would have to handle backup PG duties.
A frontcourt of Ausar Thompson/Anthony Davis/Jalen Duren gives me spacing vibes of Josh Smith/Greg Monroe/Andre Drummond. It’s a trio of two centers and a forward that can’t shoot from deep. The spacing for the Cade-Duren pick-and-roll is already limited, but throwing AD in for Tobias/Stew at PF would only make it worse.
Anthony Davis is still good – just not for this team. He’s averaging 19.6 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists this season while shooting 52.3% from the field. He’s also shooting 33.3% from deep, but it’s an incredibly small sample size (7-for-21) through the 10 games he has played this year.
Yet, he’s seeing some of his lowest numbers since his rookie year. His minutes per game, points per game, and free throw attempts per game are all the lowest they’ve been since Year 1. His free throws percentages in Dallas have stayed under 70% – his two lowest seasons ever. So, he doesn’t shoot a lot of threes, doesn’t get to the line, and doesn’t make his free throws – great!
That means he’s doing most of his work inside-the-arc – a space already occupied by multiple players in the starting lineup. Here’s where he’s getting shots up on the floor:
At Rim: 39-for-53 (73.6%)3 ft to 10 ft: 14-for-32 (43.8%)10 ft to 16 ft: 10-for-22 (45.5%)16 ft to 3-pt-line: 10-for-25 (40.0%)
For a guy that’s scoring so efficiently at the rim, that’s A LOT of inefficient midrange shot attempts away from the basket.
Isaiah Stewart provides more than Anthony Davis for what this Pistons team needs.
If you want more of a defensive presence in the starting lineup without giving up three rotation pieces and draft picks, then just start Beef Stew. Let’s look at his shot diet:
At Rim: 39-for-53 (73.6%)3 ft to 10 ft: 19-for-43 (44.2%)10 ft to 16 ft: 0-for-116 ft to 3-pt-line: 0-for-03-pointers: 21-for-51 (41.2%)
Margot Robbie is pretty, but this shot distribution is even prettier.
That’s right – Stew is shooting exactly the same at the rim as AD, yet he doesn’t have 47 attempts of the inefficient long two. Isaiah is a true 3-and-D forward/big that provides all (if not, more) the defensive versatility Davis used to show in his younger days. AD has almost taken as many midrange shots as Stew has taken threes, yet Stew has played in more than twice the games.
All this to say, Anthony Davis is another player that operates inside-the-arc if he’s available in the first place, and that’s not what this team needs. You have a better fitting player already on the roster at 30% of the cost. Trading for AD would hamper this team’s future.