The Miami Heat headed into the 2025-26 season without the weight of championship expectations they had been shouldering throughout their recent Jimmy Butler era.
After finishing with a 35-47 record and getting swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first round of last season’s playoffs, Miami enjoyed a relatively quiet summer. Its big play: a multi-team trade that landed it a package headlined by Norman Powell, a 32-year-old 6-foot-3 shooting guard many pundits thought had peaked last year with the LA Clippers.
Now — prior to their current three-game skid — the 14-10 Heat are looking frisky in a wide-open Eastern Conference. All-Star big Bam Adebayo has rebounded following an off year, Powell is looking better than ever, and second-year center Kel’el Ware is looking like a future two-way frontcourt force.
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On top of its encouraging start, Miami has been dealing with some key absences. All-Star shooting guard Tyler Herro, following a breakout season, has missed much of the year so far. Point guard Terry Rozier is away from the team dealing with legal issues, although it’s unclear if the Heat are even allowed to trade his expiring $26.6 million salary and spin it into a useful player this season. Rozier’s absence may not make much of an impact on the hardwood, but the fact that he probably cannot be dealt is.
Still, while Adebayo, Herro and Powell are nice players, and Ware is an exciting young piece, Miami doesn’t look like a true-blue contender just yet.
That might change by the Feb. 5 trade deadline.
Jake Fischer of The Stein Line expects the Heat to get into the bidding war for two-time MVP Milwaukee Bucks power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, who appears ready to move on from the only NBA home he has ever known.
Fischer notes that the Heat memorably avoided putting all their available chips into deal proposals for aging All-Stars Damian Lillard in 2023 and Kevin Durant this year, leading many to speculate that the club was underbidding as it looked for a bigger prize in the future. Neither Ware nor Miami’s first-round, non-lottery pick in 2025 were floated in Durant trade talks.
“Rest assured that the Heat have not forgotten that Antetokounmpo was said to have a level of interest in a move to Miami back in 2020 before the Bucks’ acquisition of Jrue Holiday led Giannis to ink the first of two Milwaukee contract extensions,” Fischer observes. “Sources say Antetokounmpo’s management group was certainly assessing the net worth of a four-year maximum deal in Florida without state income taxes — as well as how a contract with a team in Texas like the Dallas Mavericks when they still had Luka Dončić might have looked — and how those post-tax-calculation dollars would compare to the five-year supermax extension he eventually inked with the Wisconsin-based Bucks.”
Antetokounmpo went on to win a title during his first season with Holiday, but hasn’t made it out of the second round of the playoffs ever since. As the nine-time All-NBA superstar recuperates from a calf injury, he’s watching with great interest to see if his supporting cast can survive without him at all.
Early returns have not been good. The Bucks have gone just 1-7 this season when Antetokounmpo sits, but a still-underwhelming 9-8 when he plays. At 10-15 thus far, Milwaukee is barely clinging to a play-in tournament seed in the conference.
But Antetokounmpo has looked as lethal as ever, a two-way wrecking ball who can barrel into the paint at will, and who seems to have elevated his passing game.
Across 17 healthy bouts, the 31-year-old has been averaging 28.9 points on .639/.435/.635 shooting splits, 10.1 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocks per.
Fischer believes that Antetokounmpo is exactly the kind of star piece Miami would be amenable to going all-in to obtain, which would likely need to include surrendering one of their favorite young pieces — plus one well-compensated vet.
“My read is that the Heat can’t ever be a real contender to land Antetokounmpo if they’re not willing to part with Ware this go-around. Sources insist, however, that Miami is indeed willing to part with Andrew Wiggins (and his $28.2 million salary) in the proverbial right deal. The fact that the Heat did not come to a contract extension agreement with Tyler Herro, furthermore, would also appear to make his $31 million deal movable (we repeat) in the proverbial right deal.”
Wiggins is a solid 3-and-D small forward capable of defending opposing wings, while Herro’s offensive creativity makes up for his limitations on the other end. But Ware and future draft equity would be the ultimate prize here.
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