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With his benching in Chicago, the Warriors and Jonathan Kuminga are inching toward their expiration date.
Maybe Kuminga and the Warriors sealed this destiny over the summer, with drawn-out negotiations that were resolved with a temporary, tradeable truce. But even as of last week, when the Warriors started their trip short-handed in Philadelphia and Cleveland, he and the team still had a chance of making the delicate situation work.
Instead, head coach Steve Kerr pulled the plug because of Kuminga’s inconsistent production, his uptick in turnovers, his shaky shot selection, and his tendency to lag behind in transition. A trade has never seemed like more of a foregone conclusion.
Kuminga’s path back to the rotation involves surpassing several Warriors who are currently playing well and contributing to winning, plus the incoming influx of Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Al Horford back into the mix.
In other words: while these things don’t last forever, more DNPs are coming Kuminga’s way.
“As long as things are working out there and we’re winning, I don’t see a point of switching (anything), changing,” Kuminga said after his first DNP of the season. “So, whenever my number gets called, I’ll be ready. But I don’t see the point. Because we’re doing good, we’ve been doing good. I think things are working, moving well. So I don’t see the point of taking some people out of the rotation when they’re playing good and things are going well right now.”
Just six weeks ago, Kuminga was embracing the Shawn Marion-esque role Kerr has long envisioned for him. Kerr committed to giving Golden State’s starting lineup with Kuminga in it a runway, and his teammates once again lauded his “superstar potential.”
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That the experiment is already over (for now) would only be surprising if there wasn’t so much deja vu. This is the same tantalizing, frustrating, head-spinning rollercoaster fans have been on for five years. Kuminga and the Warriors have been strapped on it together practically since he entered the league as a talented, raw prospect in an ecosystem with championship DNA to conform to.
“I do feel for him, that he has been sort of at the whim of my decision-making based on what I want to see out there from our team,” Kerr said after practice on Dec. 10.
Kuminga’s ouster from the rotation also would’ve been more shocking if it was abrupt. Yet it was anything but sudden. For one reason or another, Kuminga at some point reverted back to old habits instead of reducing the menu of his game to defending, rebounding, running the floor, and making the simple plays in front of him.
In his first seven games, Kuminga averaged 17.4 points per game on a 21.9% usage rate. In his next nine, his scoring average dipped to 8.8 points per game while his usage increased to 27.8%. He had the ball more, and was doing substantially less with it. His shooting percentages nosedived, turnovers rose and hustle stats (rebounding, steals, foul shots) went into the gutter.
In those last nine games, Kuminga has played 221 minutes (an average of 22.1 that has steadily slipped in relation to his production). He recorded one steal in that span.
Kerr’s job is to play the players who give Golden State the best chance at winning. He likes to say it’s a “show me league,” and Kuminga has shown recently that he is not one of the Warriors’ best options.
If there was hope for a turnaround before this stretch, it’s hard to imagine there’s any left on either side with Kuminga now out of the rotation.
So the Warriors’ schedule becomes a highway to Jan. 15, the date Kuminga becomes trade-eligible. Even with as much of an inevitability as a trade seems, that doesn’t mean Kuminga will be out the door as soon as the clock strikes midnight then. But conversations up to that point are expected to heat up.
It’s possible teams use Kuminga’s latest benching as a negotiating tool. Why would we give up so much for a guy you don’t even play? But the idea that benching Kuminga hurts his trade value is mostly a fallacy; the league has eyes, too, and executives know what kind of player he is from the past four seasons. It’s not like the way Kuminga was playing before the DNP was helping his standing among scouts and executives.
This is also a familiar position for Kuminga to find himself in. His name has been floated in trade talks for years. First for Alex Caruso, then two summers ago when the Warriors were mulling Paul George and Lauri Markkanen moves, and certainly again this offseason in a sign-and-trade context.
Kerr has talked to Kuminga — and several other Warriors — about this very topic. Players rarely stay with one team their entire career, and the sooner players reconcile the fact that they need to commit to a company that can cut ties with them on a whim, the sooner they’ll break through.
“I can imagine it’s not easy for him,” Kerr said. “We’ve talked about the situation, and my desire for JK is to become the best player he can possibly be regardless of where he ends up. Whether it’s here or elsewhere.”
“Here” sure feels like a longshot compared to “elsewhere.”
Might the Suns or Kings, two active suitors this summer, reengage the Warriors in the coming weeks? What’s the Bucks’ temperature on Kuminga? Could the Nets or Jazz, the only teams with cap space in the league, help facilitate a multi-team deal? Will the Warriors be willing to attach future draft capital to him to sweeten their package?
There will be questions about Kuminga’s trade kicker (opens in new tab) and how to match salaries closely enough to stay under the second apron. When a roller coaster’s rattling to its end, there’s friction before anyone can unbuckle and go their separate ways.