Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for Thursday’s matchup between the Pelicans and Trail Blazers.

The New Orleans Pelicans are hosting the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday night. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Portland is favored by 3.5 points with the game total set at 240.5 points.

Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.

Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers preview, prediction

The Pelicans have been a disaster this season, owning a league-worst 3-22 record. New Orleans is a bottom-five team in both offensive (26th) and defensive rating (28th), and it has lost seven straight games. The Pelicans continue to be without Zion Williamson (adductor), who has only played in 10 games this season. Injuries have plagued the Duke product’s entire career, as Williamson has missed a whopping 56% of his potential games since being drafted first overall by the Pelicans in 2019.

Missing Williamson’s team-leading 22.1 points per game this season is a massive loss for New Orleans, especially since the team is far less equipped to be competitive without him now than in previous seasons. With Dejounte Murray (Achilles) still sidelined indefinitely, the Pelicans run through Trey Murphy, who is an effective scorer, averaging 21 points per game. But the 25-year-old by no means is a complete player that can lead a team — at least not yet. Saddiq Bey and Jeremiah Fears have been solid scorers, but not great all-around players.

Rookie center Derik Queen has been the main bright spot for this lowly New Orleans team. The No. 13 has flashed great upside at times, most recently when he dropped a 33-point triple-double against the San Antonio Spurs on Monday night. Despite the loss, it was a complete showing from Queen, who shot 73% from the floor and finished with a +14 plus-minus.

This performance did feel slightly random, though, as the rookie had only scored over 20 points once in his previous seven games before this. Still, Queen’s efforts kept his team competitive, and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling on Thursday night. However, Jordan Poole (questionable, quad) is trending towards playing tonight, and the ball-dominant guard could throw a wrench into New Orleans’ flow. Poole is handling a 25.8% usage rate this season and ranks dead last in plus-minus for the Pelicans. In the 212 minutes Poole has been on the floor this season, New Orleans has a miserable -21.9 in net rating.

The Trail Blazers have had a better season than the Pelicans, with Portland sitting at 9-15 with a 20th-ranked net rating. But it hasn’t been pretty since Jrue Holiday (calf) got hurt last month. With the guard inactive for the last 12 games, the Trail Blazers are just 3-9 and rank 25th in net rating, which is only one spot higher than the Pelicans during this time. Portland’s offensive and defensive ratings are much better with Holiday on the floor this season, and with the Trail Blazers missing the savvy veteran, the team has lacked discipline on both ends of the floor.

Deni Avdija is having a career season as Portland’s featured player, averaging 25.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game. Shaedon Sharpe is also scoring a career-high 21.1 points a night. Additionally, Jerami Grant has been strong as Holiday’s replacement in the starting five, averaging 21.5 PPG with the guard sidelined. But outside of Avdija, Sharpe, and Grant, the Trail Blazers are severely thin on offensive talent, which has led to the team’s downfall.

In the first matchup of the season between the Pelicans and the Trail Blazers, Portland defeated New Orleans, 125-117, on the road. The Pelicans were without Williamson for this contest, but the Trail Blazers had Holiday available, so it will be interesting to see how the club does this time around without their top guard.

Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers pick, best bet

Even with Holiday sidelined, the Trail Blazers are the better team than the Pelicans. Portland should pull out a win here, but this game is likely to be close — and New Orleans should be able to cover the 3.5-point spread on its home floor.

While the Pelicans only have three wins to their name this season, they have been strong at covering, with a 14-10-1 ATS record and an 8-5-1 ATS record at home. Meanwhile, Portland is 13-11-0 ATS, but it has struggled when favored, holding a 1-7-0 ATS record.

Best Bet: New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 Points (-105)