Of the last 21 Heisman Trophy winners, 19 went on to become first-round NFL Draft picks.

Of those 19 first-rounders, 16 were top-10 picks, including the last nine straight.

Will that streak be extended this year?

All four finalists for the 2025 Heisman Trophy — Fernando Mendoza, Jeremiyah Love, Diego Pavia and Julian Sayin — have some type of NFL future ahead of them, although each of their draft projections looks a little different.

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

No matter what else happens, Mendoza already has etched his name in college football history, having led Indiana to its greatest season in school history — and his resume isn’t finished. The current favorite to be QB1 in the 2026 NFL Draft, the Cal transfer was already viewed in the summer as a potential first-rounder and has only improved his stock in the eyes of NFL teams.

Mendoza doesn’t have an elite arm or athleticism, but he is good enough in both categories. More importantly, he has above-average accuracy and processing (pre- and post-snap), which is why he has been a perfect fit in the Hoosiers’ RPO-heavy scheme.

Box-score scouts won’t love Mendoza’s 229.2 passing yards per game in 2025, but that’s more a product of Indiana’s balanced offense than anything. Mendoza’s tape is full of “NFL throws,” too, especially in clutch moments.

Against Ohio State’s top-ranked defense, he had a handful of dagger throws that made the difference in that game — a fourth-and-2 conversion while under duress in the second quarter; a deep post to Charlie Becker for a 51-yard gain (seen in the clip below), which set up a slot-fade touchdown pass to Elijah Sarratt four plays later; a 33-yard go-ball to Becker on a third down, which essentially sealed Indiana’s victory.

Had any of those four passes been incomplete, the game’s outcome probably would’ve been different. But the moment has never been too much for Mendoza.

NFL Draft projection: Assuming he declares, Mendoza has a good chance to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. His skill set is reminiscent of Jared Goff, who also didn’t have elite physical traits, but his mind and passing talent made him the top pick in 2016. We could see a similar situation play out with Mendoza in 2026.

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

Love entered the season as college football’s top running back, and he didn’t disappoint. In fact, he looked even better in 2025 than he did in ’24. The St. Louis, Mo., native showed improved run patience as a junior and did a better job staying north-south, which led to an increase in first downs without a loss of his big-play talent.

He matched his yards per carry average from last season (6.9) and led the FBS with eight plays of 20-plus yards (four carries, four catches). Over the past two seasons, Love combined for 40 touchdowns from scrimmage — eight more than No. 2 on the list.

Saquon Barkley was picked apart pre-draft for having “questionable vision” and doing “too much dancing.” But at a certain point, you just bet on the unique athlete who can do freaky things with the ball in his hands. He and Barkley are different types of running backs, but I think it will be a similar process for Love. His ability to smash the accelerator and stay on his feet through contact makes him a nightmare to tackle, especially when he attacks the second level of a defense.

The NFL wants explosive playmakers who impact the scoreboard. Love does that better than any other draft-eligible prospect in the class.

NFL Draft Projection: Love is a top-five talent in the 2026 NFL Draft and my highest-graded running back since Bijan Robinson. However, positional value likely will keep him out of the top-five picks. All that means is a team drafting in the six-to-12 range will land an explosive weapon who will immediately upgrade an NFL offense.

Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt

For those who saw “Pavia magic” as more of a novelty last season, the performance by Vanderbilt’s quarterback in 2025 has forced evaluators to take him more seriously as an NFL prospect. Similar to Mendoza’s work in elevating Indiana, it has been incredible to see the rise of the Pavia-led Commodores the past two years.

This season, Pavia has accounted for 36 total touchdowns (27 passing, 9 rushing) and ranks second in college football with 162 plays of 10-plus yards. His second-reaction plays and athletic instincts with the ball in his hands are what he does best. He went “full Pavia” on this first-down play against Texas:

Pavia is undersized, there is no way around that (scouts measured him at 5 feet 9 3/4 in the spring). He has a long release and a tendency to play backyard football, which can lead to negative results (eight interceptions in 2025). However, Pavia also showed noticeable improvements with his passing timing and placement as a super senior. His completion percentage is up almost 12 points from last season (59.4 to 71.2).

Is that enough to be drafted? Maybe.

NFL Draft Projection: Over the last 30 years, just one Heisman Trophy winner went undrafted (Jason White). Pavia has mostly “priority free agent” grades from NFL scouts, but even they admit that they won’t be surprised if sneaks into the later rounds, especially after he meets with NFL coaches. Quarterback is an “intangibles” position, and Pavia’s competitive mentality will win over the room during pre-draft interviews.

Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State

For the fifth time in the last eight years, an Ohio State quarterback has earned an invite to New York City as a Heisman finalist. In his first year as a starter, Sayin has completed 78.4 percent of his passes, which puts him on pace to break Bo Nix’s single-season NCAA record (77.4). He also leads the FBS in passing efficiency (182.1) and sports a 31-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

It helps when you’re throwing to NFL-level wide receivers — I get that. But it still takes a talented quarterback to see the field, manage the pocket and put the ball in a spot where his monster pass catchers can make plays.

We are going to see this clip from the Wisconsin tape on repeat when the networks talk about Carnell Tate during the draft process. But I also love what it shows about Sayin.

Sayin feels the backside rush and quickly works to his left while staying in a read-to-throw position. The ball travels 50 yards in the air and comes down in a perfect place, where Tate can elevate between two defenders. It’s a phenomenal play by the receiver, but let’s give the quarterback credit, too.

NFL Draft Projection: Only a second-year player, Sayin is this year’s lone finalist who isn’t eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft. He made several mistakes this season that reflect his inexperience, especially against Indiana’s versatile scheme in the Big Ten title game. But Sayin will enter next season as one of the top quarterbacks to watch in what’s expected to be a talent-rich 2027 QB draft class.