NBA Cup semifinals odds, lines, predictions: Can we find an edge with the Knicks and Thunder?

The NBA Cup semifinals take place Saturday in Las Vegas.

The remaining four teams are the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks from the Eastern Conference, and the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs from the Western Conference. With just three international games during the NBA regular season, these games present a rare opportunity to watch, price and bet neutral court NBA games.

One coincidence is the Orlando Magic are set to participate in the Berlin and London games in January, and now also take the stage in Vegas. An NBA home-court advantage is usually worth about 3 points against the spread, so in trying to best anticipate the price to bet on these games, that factor is removed. Let’s review the semifinals through the lens of betting the spread, game total,and player props in each.

All lines via BetMGM.

Eastern Conference: Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks (-4.5, 223.5)

When pricing sides and totals in NBA games, I rely on both market ratings and a personal model. Then when placing a bet, I factor in the early market direction and line movement. I find the spots to be strongest when all three align. This means the line is moving toward the market ratings and model number, and hopefully I still have some wiggle room where the price has not met its match.

The consensus price right now is Knicks -4.5 (-105) after a Knicks -3.5 (-115) open. This shows us the line movement toward New York. The market rating is Knicks -5, and my model prices this at Knicks -4.8. We are heading toward a sharp number, but this remains a Knicks-or-nothing spot for me.

The last component is to compare the moneyline available to bet vs. the price of the spread. Using a spread-to-moneyline converter for NBA games, a -4.5 (-105) spread line should have a moneyline range between -170 and -185. Given that we are operating on the lower side of the range, I actually prefer the moneyline play here. When lines reach consensus, sometimes the best edge is getting a few cents ahead on the moneyline. This is often an approach I use during the playoffs, when the line movement happens within ranges of moneylines on sharp spread numbers. Given this game has been priced since Tuesday night, we are at that point in the market cycle.

For basketball reasons, I also like the Knicks here. They have premier defenders to throw at Desmond Bane and Paolo Banchero. I would expect OG Anunoby on Banchero, and a combination of Josh Hart and Miles Bridges on Bane. The Knicks can hide Jalen Brunson on Anthony Black, and Wendell Carter Jr. is not an offensive engine to attack Karl-Anthony Towns. On the other end, Brunson is nearly matchup proof and can produce against Jalen Suggs, and the rest of the matchups favor the Knicks because of their size.

Bet: Knicks ML -175 (1 unit)

While there has not been a line move on the total since the price opened at BetMGM, we know from other places in the market the line was 224.5 and has come down. Both of these teams’ quarterfinals games in the NBA Cup took massive steam toward the under and still went under the closing number.

However, I price this game higher, and it is hard to factor in both the neutral court setting and the Cup atmosphere. This is only the third year of the Cup, and we need more data before drawing any conclusions on the total. Both the Western Conference games in the quarterfinals went over the closing total. This leads me to think it is more matchup dependent as opposed to spot dependent.

The Knicks have prioritized pace and movement on offense a lot more than previous seasons. And this year the Magic defense has faltered compared to previous seasons with head coach Jamahl Mosley. With the market looking under, but my price and read of the teams being an over, this is a simple skip for me. Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all.

Total: No Bet

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-10.5, 225.5)

If you are looking to bet this game early, the truth to getting a good price comes down to one factor: Will Victor Wembanyama play?

The process in pricing this game is by reading the tea leaves and understanding how probabilistic modeling works. Probabilistic modeling means bettors and bookmakers are pricing the spread and total relative to the perceived information on Wembanyama’s status. A simple way to look at this is as follows: If Wemby is worth 5 points against the spread, and he has a 50% chance to play, this line should move 2.5 points on the final Wemby news.

After the Spurs beat the Lakers on Wednesday night in the quarterfinals, the line appeared with a price of OKC Thunder -9.5. My pricing suggests the fair value for this line is Thunder -9.7 if Wembanyama is a true 50/50. If Wembanyama plays, he is likely going to be on a minutes restriction, devaluing his full 5-point value ATS to probably just 4. With Wembanyama out, this line should be around Thunder -12; with Wembanyama in, it would be Thunder -8.

Since the line opened, there has been some action coming in on the Thunder, moving the spread out to -10.5. I do not believe public action moves betting lines, but I do believe sharper bettors who influence line movement are studying this factor and are leaning toward Wembanyama remaining out for Saturday’s contest. I put his availability at about 40% based on current information. He returned to practice Sunday for the Spurs, but was also ruled out of the previous two games this week a full day before the game.

Betting this game means either betting the Thunder now or waiting for the final news. The same can be said for the game total. He is so valuable to the line, it will move 5 points based on his status. Sitting at 225.5, we will see this go up with Wembanyama out and down with Wembanyama in. The total has moved from 224.5 to 225.5, another slight indicator he is slightly more likely to be out than in.

Where we can attack this game is in the player prop market. Most notably, I am looking for 3-point overs on lines that I would like with Wembanyama out. If he is in, this is only going to further deter action around the rim and increase the kickout opportunities for shooters. The players that most stand out are Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace over 1.5 3-pointers, both priced around +150 or better. Wallace is likely going to have a lot of playing time against the guard-heavy Spurs. WIlliams becomes a focal point of a drive-and-kick offense as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander attracts help defense and finds the open man. Alex Caruso is another option, and he should get extra playing time over Aaron Wiggins, but his props have not been priced yet because his availability is up in the air.

If you wait until the Wembanyama news settles and he plays, look to back the Thunder -8 or better. I like starting a position now on OKC. If Wemby is out, you have a great number, and if he is in you can add to it at a better number. It is hard to argue against an OKC-or-nothing approach given how historically well this team is playing.

Bet: OKC -10.5, Jalen Williams over 1.5 3PM, Cason Wallace over 1.5 3PM, and look for Alex Caruso 3PM props as well

NBA Cup semifinals odds, lines, predictions: Can we find an edge with the Knicks and Thunder?

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