Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for the Brooklyn Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA matchup.

The Brooklyn Nets will face off with the Dallas Mavericks as part of tonight’s seven-game NBA slate. Both these teams looked like league bottom-feeders to start the season, but there have been some encouraging signs of life down in Dallas. This will be the first of three matchups between these cross-conference foes.

Looking at the odds for tonight, the Mavericks enter as 7.5-point favorites and hold -325 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nets hold +260 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 221.5 points.

This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.

Nets at Mavericks Preview

The Brooklyn Nets entered the season with expectations that they would be right back in the lottery, and they are on track for this. They hold a record of 6-17 on the season, which slots them at 13th place in the Eastern Conference. There have been some slight signs of competitiveness recently, with Brooklyn winning three of their past four. On the season, the Nets are 11-11-1 against the spread, and the under has cashed in 14 of their 23 games. 

Michael Porter Jr. headlines the production with 25.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, seeing all the shot volume he desires. Cam Thomas was not far behind him in shot volume, averaging 21.4 points per game, but has played just eight games this year and remains sidelined due to his hamstring injury. Nic Claxton adds 13.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, and a team-high 4.5 assists, while Noah Clowney has burst onto the scene this year with 13.3 points per game. Brooklyn used five first-round picks in the previous draft to land Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Drake Powell, Ben Saraf, and Danny Wolf. There have been some flashes from each, but on the wider scale, the class has greatly underwhelmed to this point.

The Nets are scoring the fewest points in the league at 109.4 points per game. They rank 26th in offensive rating, 28th in field goal percentage, and 27th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.2 points per game against Brooklyn, which ranks 20th in the NBA. The Nets are posting the 26th-ranked defensive rating, with opponents shooting the third-best rate from the field and beyond the three-point arc against them.

The stench of the Nico Harrison era is still working its way out of the Mavericks’ buildings, but this team has settled in. Dallas holds a 9-16 record on the year, but have won four of their past five. Dallas is 12-13 against the spread, and the game total has stayed under in 14 of their 25 games.

Kyrie Irving remains sidelined for the Mavericks with the injury report remaining crowded. Dereck Lively II underwent season-ending surgery this week, Dante Exum has already been ruled out for the season, and Daniel Gafford is considered doubtful with an ankle injury. D’Angelo Russell is also questionable due to illness.

Injuries have been no stranger to Anthony Davis, but he is expected to be available tonight, and the Mavericks are a different team when he is on the floor. Across the 10 games he has played, Davis is averaging 19.6 points and 10.2 rebounds. Despite being miscast into a point guard role at the start of the season, Cooper Flagg has lived up to the hype. The expected Rookie of the Year is averaging 17.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, looking like the team’s best player for stretches. P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, and Max Christie round out a respectable wing rotation, and Klay Thompson is still capable of getting hot from beyond the three-point arc.

The Mavericks are scoring 111.8 points per game, which ranks 26th in the league, and are posting the worst offensive rating. They are 22nd in team field goal percentage and 26th in three-point percentage. Defensively, they are holding teams to 116.1 points per game, which ranks 15th, but are posting the seventh-best defensive rating. They also rank eighth in opponents’ field goal percentage and are holding teams to the worst three-point percentage in the league.

Nets at Mavericks Prediction, Best Bet

It is to be determined how good this Dallas Mavericks team is and if these signs of a turnaround are here to stay. But there are certainly plenty more reasons for optimism on this roster than the Brooklyn Nets. My lean is certainly toward the Mavericks producing a comfortable victory and covering the 7.5-point spread.

But I am backing the Brooklyn Nets team total to fall under 106.5 in this matchup. With Anthony Davis back on the floor, the Mavericks have the makings of one of the best defenses in the league. They currently rank eighth in defensive rating, and should be expected to climb this list even further as the season progresses. Their level of defensive impact should especially be felt against a Nets team with struggles to score the ball, regardless of who they are facing.

The Nets are producing the worst scoring total at 109.4 points per game on the season. They have been held below 106.5 points in seven games already this season, including not cracking 100 points in three games. They have not had a consistent stretch of fluent offense all season, as highlighted by Nic Claxton leading the team in assists. Brooklyn lacks the necessary quality of offensive creators to be successful in today’s NBA. This will especially be put on display against a defensive-minded Mavericks team.

While this is a low total by NBA standards, the Mavericks have held opponents under this total in seven games already this year. The league’s worst offense is squaring off against a surging, defensive-minded team that looks hungry to turn things around of late. Expect Brooklyn to dig themselves a hole in the early parts of this game by struggling to find an offensive flow, and for points to be difficult to come by throughout. Neither of these teams plays at a particularly high pace, and this will be mostly a half-court battle throughout. Count on the Nets struggling to find any source of consistency on offense and being held to under 106.5 points for the eighth time this season. 

Best Bet: Nets Team Total Under 106.5 (-110)