The 2025 NBA Cup semifinals stage is set: Knicks-Magic and Spurs-Thunder. The final four will face off Saturday in Las Vegas, with the winners advancing to the title game on Tuesday. Adding to the festivities, Victor Wembanyama is likely to make his return from a calf injury. Can anyone keep the Thunder from lifting another trophy? Our writers weigh in.

What’s your take on Knicks-Magic?

Ben Rohrbach: A potential Eastern Conference finals preview. The Knicks own the East’s best net rating (+8.6), and the Magic (+4.2) are not far behind, despite missing Paolo Banchero and now Franz Wagner for chunks of another season. Banchero is back and helped Orlando oust Miami from the Cup quarterfinals. Is he enough? Not against the Knicks, whose best lineup (Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns) is walloping teams. But with both Banchero and Wagner? These two teams could meet again in a big playoff series.

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Steve Jones: The Magic will need to find an answer for Brunson, who has given them 30 or more every time he has seen them this season. The Knicks are at their best when they play with tempo and flow in the half-court. The Magic have worked to be physical to take that away and get the Knicks deeper in the shot clock. Their best moments come when their defense matches their desire to push and attack quickly. Considering these two teams will have faced each other on three of the last four weekends and twice in a span of six days, I am intrigued to see how much familiarity comes into play.

Tom Haberstroh: It’s going to be a bloodbath. Both teams are monsters on the boards, so prepare for some serious physicality underneath. I wouldn’t be surprised if things get out of hand a few times. With six-figure bonuses already in hand for getting this far in the NBA Cup, I imagine the players won’t stress too much about flagrant 2s and techs that carry $2,000 fines.

Dan Devine: Wagner’s absence means the game could come down to how effectively New York can limit Desmond Bane. In their win over the Magic last Sunday, the Knicks held Bane to 16 points on 15 shot attempts, with Mikal Bridges taking the bulk of the defensive assignment. The story was dramatically different for Orlando in their quarterfinals win, though. The Magic had their third-best half-court outing of the season against the Heat fueled by Bane’s 37 points on 24 shots. If Bridges and Co. can keep Bane under wraps, Orlando could struggle to match the firepower of the Knicks’ No. 2-ranked offense. If he gets loose, the Magic could have enough juice to make it to the championship round.

What’s your take on Spurs-Thunder?

Devine: At the risk of being extremely basic: I’m really, really glad Victor Wembanyama is healthy enough to play. Hardly anybody has made Oklahoma City feel uncomfortable throughout its historic rampage to a 24-1 record. Well, a 7-foot-whatever ambulatory eclipse has a way of unsettling an offense: Just 27.2% of San Antonio opponents’ shot attempts have come at the basket with Wembanyama on the floor, which would be the second-lowest mark in the NBA over the course of the season.

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This one had a chance to be fun even if the Spurs kept Wembanyama out, with De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and Devin Vassell profiling as an awfully fun perimeter quartet to throw out against the Thunder’s phalanx on monster defensive wings. But to make the Thunder sweat, let alone beat them, you need a trump card — a bona fide game-changing difference-maker. The Spurs have one of those guys. And we’re going to get to see him. Hell yeah.

Haberstroh: I’m torn! On one hand, I can’t wait to see Big Vic and Chet go at it and build on a much-needed heavyweight (OK, maybe not heavy heavy) rivalry in the West. But this will be Wembanyama’s first game back after a month off and I’d hate to see him aggravate the calf strain under the Vegas lights. Then again, OKC has been so dominant that Wemby might not matter.

Jones: In a basketball world that is wondering what to do with this Thunder team, it’s hard not to ponder what this Victor Wembanyama would look like against them. It’s been a testament to what the Spurs have built that they have gone 9-3 in his absence. The strength has been movement and the play of Fox, Castle and Harper. That strength will be tested against an OKC defense that has thrived speeding offenses up, being physical against drives and flying around to create havoc. Sounds like a fun battle to me.

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Rohrbach: Getting to watch Wemby in his first NBA game with real stakes — against arguably the greatest team in basketball history — is absolutely must-watch television for all sports fans. It may not make a lick of difference against a Thunder team that looks unbeatable, but Wembanyama gave the French national team a shot against the U.S. in the 2024 Olympics, and he could do the same for San Antonio.

Who will be this year’s NBA Cup champ?

Jones: Thunder. My favorite part about the NBA Cup is tapping into the competitive nature of the early part of the season. I’m excited to see this version of the Spurs against the Thunder, what the Magic would throw at OKC’s offense, or how the Knicks’ offense would hold up against OKC’s defense. It should be some fun, competitive basketball. But I am going with the Thunder to roll.

Haberstroh: Thunder. I’ll take the team that is 24-1 and the only one who has been to the NBA Cup final before. They’re pretty good. The 3-point-heavy Knicks could give OKC problems if they go on a heater, but they need to top Orlando first.

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Rohrbach: Thunder. I would be crazy to pick anyone but them. They are 24-1, losing only a 22-point lead to the Trail Blazers on Nov. 5, and they own the best net rating (+17.2) in NBA history. They do not lose games. If they are giving a full effort, and they always do, they are better than a Spurs team that is just welcoming Wembanyama back into the fold, a Knicks team that has defensive limitations, given the presence of Brunson and Towns, and a Magic team that is without Wagner.

Devine: Thunder. I’m not saying they can’t be beat. I’m just saying that I’ll let someone else pick that outcome until I see it actually happen more than once in two months.