Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Jazz at Grizzlies on Friday.

Normally, a Friday night game between two teams currently in the bottom half of the Western Conference standings, particularly on the eve of college football bowl season and the Emirates NBA Cup semifinals, wouldn’t produce many eyeballs. Tonight’s 8 p.m. ET contest between the 11-13 Memphis Grizzlies and the 8-15 Utah Jazz could be different, as Ja Morant is questionable to start for the Grizzlies.

Perhaps no player in the NBA is under more pressure than Morant, who’s missed the last 10 games with a calf strain. The 26-year-old, who has three years and $126.5 million remaining on his deal (including this season), has averaged only 17.9 points per game on putrid 36-17-94 shooting splits, and his time in Memphis (if not his career overall) appears to be drawing rapidly towards a close.

Regardless of any uncertainty surrounding Morant, the Grizzlies are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-278 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 243.5. Utah is +225 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer my prediction.

Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies preview, prediction

Much has been made of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ tendency to lose to teams with winning records and beat teams with losing records, but Memphis has been even more extreme in that aspect. The Grizzlies are one of just two teams not to suffer a defeat against a team below .500, along with the San Antonio Spurs, but they’re also just 1-13 against teams .500 or better. All in all, things are pointed in the right direction — Memphis has won five of its last six games — but just as the Grizzlies got Morant back, they received a blow when Zach Edey was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his ankle that will keep him out for at least four weeks of action. With Edey out, Jock Landale — a much less impactful player — will slide back into the starting lineup.

While Memphis has to be discouraged by Morant’s regression and his reportedly tense relationship with head coach Tuomas Iisalo, the Jazz should be pretty encouraged by the progress of their rebuild. Though Utah has suffered three defeats by at least 28 points within its last three games (albeit to the Houston Rockets, New York Knicks, and Oklahoma City Thunder), it has also seen young players Keyonte George, Isaiah Collier, and Ace Bailey demonstrate promising signs. While the specter of eventually trading Lauri Markkanen is a constant, the Finn has elevated the Jazz whenever he’s taken the court, as he’s poured in a fairly efficient 27.6 points per game.

Jazz at Grizzlies pick, best bet

Edey’s injury is a more impactful development for Memphis than Morant’s return, even though injuries to Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome have decimated the Grizzlies’ guard depth. This season, Memphis has been 25.8 points per 100 possessions with the big man on the court, the biggest on-off differential of any player with at least 200 minutes played. Meanwhile, it has been 16.4 points per 100 possessions worse with Landale and 6.7 points per 100 possessions worse with Morant. With Edey, the Grizzlies’ total rebounding percentage drops by 9.0 percentage points and their defensive rating dips from 97.6 (5.6 points per 100 possessions better than the Thunder’s league-leading mark) to 120.1, which would be the fourth-worst in basketball. Those numbers are almost certain to normalize as the Edey-less sample gets larger, but it shouldn’t be a shock that a seven-foot-three behemoth has made a positive impact on his team and an inefficient, turnover-prone lead ball-handler has not.

Utah is arguably the one team Memphis might be able to win against in spite of Edey’s absence. To the Jazz’s credit, they’ve allowed the fewest shot attempts in the restricted area, but once opponents get downhill, they have been able to finish at the second-highest rate from both the restricted area and from floater range. That could prove a saving grace to a team that attempted the third-fewest shots at the rim prior to Edey’s season debut and made such shots at the ninth-lowest clip. Defensively, the Grizzlies’ rim protection numbers are mediocre with Edey (66.1% opponent FG% in the restricted area in his starts) and horrendous with Landale (74.0%), so it’s good for Memphis that Utah attempts the third-fewest shots in the restricted are and connects at the 10th-lowest rate. On a season-long basis, these teams rank last and second-to-last in made field goals at the rim (first and second in made field goals from the non-restricted paint), and 2025-26 Morant might not even help with that, given that he’s taken nearly twice as many attempts from floater range than from the restricted area.

If the Grizzlies want to win this game, they’ll have to do it in transition, given that the Jazz have allowed the fourth-most points off of turnovers and 11th-most fast-break points, but offensively, Memphis ranks seventh-to-last in both categories. It was only slightly better than that (14th in fast break points and 23rd in points off of turnovers) with Morant in the lineup, so even with his athleticism, he might not be a game-changer there. He also won’t help against Utah’s biggest weakness, the fact that it concedes the most wide-open threes per game. He’s made just 18.2% of his wide-open triples this season and has made more than one-third of his wide-open tries in only three seasons (none since 2022-23), so Memphis will need Cam Spencer (46.5% from deep this season) to continue lighting it up. It’s not like the Grizzlies have locked up the perimeter defensively, either, allowing the third-most uncontested threes, and the Jazz have some pretty good shooters.

Only the overwhelming home-court advantage numbers — a swing of 21 points per 100 possessions in Memphis’ favor — sway me away from picking Utah on the Moneyline, though that disparity is almost certain to come down as the season goes along. One factor is that home vs. road splits are more telling in the Jazz’s case because they play at altitude, so Utah often have fairly extreme splits. Unless they shoot the lights out, the Jazz might be among the worst-equipped teams to take advantage of the Grizzlies’ obvious weaknesses, but I’m not confident that Memphis can beat anyone else. Give me Utah to cover the spread with ease.

Best bet: Utah Jazz +3.5 Alternate Spread (+143)