ZT details his best player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s NBA Cup semifinal game between the Spurs and the Thunder.

The NBA has a light schedule this Saturday, with the focus on the NBA Cup Semifinals taking place in Las Vegas. After the New York Knicks take on the Orlando Magic, the later matchup of the night is a fun Western Conference showdown between the dominant defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder and the young and rising San Antonio Spurs. Each side of this matchup is loaded with storylines and players who are fun to watch, so let’s take a look at my favorite player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook from Saturday’s matchup.

In the overall contest, the Thunder are heavy 10.5-point favorites with the game total set at 231.5. This will be the first time these two teams have faced off this season, but they play three times between now and Christmas Day, when they’ll meet in the 2:30 p.m. EST matchup in OKC. Get ready for plenty of Wemby vs. Chet hype and some great contests over the next few weeks.
The Thunder have been absolutely incredible to start the season, going 24-1 and often totally overwhelming opponents and turning games into routs. The Spurs have done a good job navigating injuries in the early part of the season and are 17-7 after winning nine of their last 12 games and pulling off the upset against Lakers in the quarterfinals on Wednesday.

San Antonio is expected to get Victor Wembanyama back from his calf injury, as the big man is probable and will likely play for the first time since Nov. 14. Stephon Castle returned last week from his injury as well, giving the Spurs a promising young core as they look for a signature win on the big stage in Vegas. Who will step up in the spotlight? Let’s dive into this fun Western Conference matchup and check out some player prop bets to target.

Spurs vs. Thunder Best Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-120)

Almost every prop on the board comes down to one basic issue – can the Spurs keep the game close? If the matchup is competitive throughout, the Thunder rotation will give their stars a great shot to go over their props, but if things get lopsided like in many of OKC’s recent wins, the starters could play reduced minutes and finish under their props. In this post, I’ll try to find some “blowout-proof” props like this one with SGA’s point total.

Taking any player to get to 32 points is a tall order, but Gilgeous-Alexander has been excellent all season, going over this prop in 11 of his 24 games and averaging 32.6 points per game. Whenever he has been under this total, it has mostly been due to blowouts, and since I do think the Spurs will keep it close enough for the Thunder to push their starters, I think SGA goes over this point total in a close game. Alternatively, if the Thunder do blow out the Spurs, the reason they do will likely be that SGA went off.

He has produced at least 32 points in five of his last seven games, and he managed 33 points in just 29 minutes against the Mavericks last Friday. The Spurs’ backcourt has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to point guards this season, and SGA’s over makes sense in this matchup on Saturday night as he tries to lead his team back to the NBA Cup Championship, where they lost to the Bucks last season.

Stephon Castle over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-117)

While Wemby’s return will get plenty of attention and hype, Castle has been the one fueling the Spurs’ offense over the last few games and should be in a good spot to control the game flow again on Saturday.

In just his second season, Castle is averaging 18.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 31.4 PRA (points, rebounds and assists). He has gone over this prop line in each of his last two games after returning from injury, and he was only under this PRA total once in his 15 games this season aside from the game in which he left injured.

Castle had 30 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists in just 27 minutes against the Lakers after posting 28 PRA in 23 minutes in his return from injury on Monday.

If you want to get more aggressive, taking Castle to get 30 PRA at +149 odds is a solid option, and you can be even more aggressive and go to 35+ PRA at +375 if you want to build in a ladder for your Saturday night betting card.

Chet Holmgren more than 7.5 rebounds (-122)

Holmgren has at least eight rebounds in eight straight games, but this prop line is at this level since Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) is not on the injury report and will be available for the first time in six games.

With Hartenstein doing work on the glass,  Holmgren will play more minutes at power forward and could end up with fewer rebounds. However, I think the boost in minutes in an elimination game will be enough for Chet to still get at least eight boards.

This season, Holmgren is averaging exactly 8.0 rebounds per game, so even though he comes up short of a double-double most of the time, he does typically find a way to pull in at least eight rebounds. He only needed 23, 23, and 25 minutes to get to that total in the last three games, but if he plays closer to 30 minutes, that should be enough to compensate for Hartenstein’s return. Hartenstein may be on a minutes limit as well after missing so many games.

Bonus Parlay Pick: Stephon Castle under 1.5 3PM (-174)

If  you’re looking for a fourth leg for your Same Game Parlay or SGPx, you can add in this Castle 3PM prop to push your parlay all the way to +1100 as you can see below (and add in that juicy parlay boost from DraftKings Sportsbook if available).

Since we’re playing Castle’s PRA over in the same parlay the odds of this jump significantly since we’re threading the needle, saying Castle will get over his PRA but under his 3PM. This seems like the most likely scenario, though, since Castle has only hit multiple 3PM in four of his 15 games (27%). He did make three threes against the Lakers on Wednesday, but that isn’t normally his game. I think his 3-point shooting will cool off and his PRA production will continue, making this a fun parlay play for the late game.

SGP odds: +1100