Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder matchup on Saturday in the NBA Cup Semifinals.

Saturday’s pro hoops slate is a small one, but that doesn’t mean it’s any less fun than usual. Tonight, the NBA Cup Semifinals take place with a couple of high-quality matchups headlined by a Western Conference duel between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder. Victor Wembanyama likely makes his return in this contest to take on reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, so the stars are out in full force in Las Vegas tonight.

Here’s a Spurs vs. Thunder prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s NBA Cup Semifinal matchup.

Spurs vs. Thunder prediction, preview

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have survived without superstar Victor Wembanyama for weeks, but he finally makes his return tonight from the calf strain that’s left him sidelined since November 14. The French big man is listed as probable on the injury report and is likely to rejoin a 17-7 squad that’s 7-3 across its last 10 games. His two-way dominance is patently absurd with 26.2 PPG, 12.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 3.6 blocks per game — it’s hard to overstate just how much better this team is with him on the floor. Co-star De’Aaron Fox averages 24.0 PPG and 6.3 assists himself and will have his top pick-and-roll threat back, and Stephon Castle recently returned from his own injury with averages of 18.2 PPG and 7.3 assists. This roster is loaded with talent though, including five other players averaging double-digit points with a mix of savvy veterans like Harrison Barnes and young talents like Dylan Harper.

The Spurs’ NETRTG of +4.6 ranks eighth in the league and will surely improve with Wembanyama’s return. They’re already sixth in PPG (120.1) but the 11th-ranked defense (114.4 PPG allowed) should tick upward with the elite defensive presence back on the floor. San Antonio already sits eighth in REB% and sixth in TS% as well, so the unit looks quite good in two key peripheral stats too. It’s difficult to deny the up-and-coming roster’s status among the league’s contenders, and there’s no better way to cement that than with a statement win over the reigning champs in NBA Cup competition here.

Oklahoma City Thunder

While the Spurs are scrappy, the Thunder are outright dominant. Oklahoma City won the title for a reason last year, and through the season’s first quarter-plus, it’s apparent this team is out for blood again. At 24-1 with an average margin of victory over 17 points, the Thunder are steamrolling everyone they play. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains a candidate to add another MVP to his trophy case with 32.6 PPG and 6.5 assists a night, scoring on a variety of defensive coverage regardless of which defender takes his assignment. Chet Holmgren also looks excellent with 18.8 PPG and 8.0 rebounds, and while Jalen Williams only has six games under his belt after missing the first part of the campaign, he’s knocking off the rust with 17.3 PPG, 6.2 assists and 5.2 boards. Isaiah Hartenstein leads the team with 10.7 rebounds per game and is one of four other scorers averaging double-digit points, too.

Again, this team is outright dominant. The Thunder’s NETRTG of +17.2 is tops in the league by a nearly seven-point margin. They score the second-most points of any team (123.6 PPG) while boasting the best defense on the other end (106.2 PPG). While Oklahoma City ranks just 15th in REB% and 25th in AST%, the unit is third in TS% with the second-best AST/TO ratio while forcing more turnovers than any other franchise.

Spurs vs. Thunder pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Thunder as -11.5 favorites tonight with -500 odds on the Moneyline. The Spurs are +380 ML underdogs with the total set at 232.5. The betting splits show 85% of straight wagers on Oklahoma City with 81% of bets on the total favoring the over.

The best news is that the injury report is largely clean on both sides. Beyond Wembanyama’s probable tag, the only other rotation player listed is OKC’s Isaiah Joe (knee), who’s out with a contusion.

As long as Wembanyama plays as he’s expected to, the Spurs may truly challenge their opponent tonight. The Frenchman adds so much in all facets of the game whether it’s scoring, rebounding, defensive impact or even hints of playmaking creation for others. With San Antonio already playing well in his absence, the outlook for the team looks even better with him healthy and back on the floor. Both rosters are deep and can get offensive contributions from a variety of options on the offensive end, and both defenses are among the league’s best when at full strength as well. The biggest question is whether Wembanyama plays a full share of minutes in his return tonight, but even if he’s out there a little less than in the typical game he’ll be able to match up well with Hartenstein and Holmgren in the paint.

There’s no stopping Gilgeous-Alexander, but if the Spurs’ various defensive talents can limit the Thunder’s options beyond the superstar, then this could be a much closer game than the odds indicate. I quite like San Antonio to cover in this spot — even against the NBA’s best team. This contest takes place at a neutral site without true home-court advantage for either side, and the Spurs are 6-3 against the spread when playing as the underdog this season. While I wouldn’t take Wembanyama and Co. to win outright, they’ll certainly play a competitive game and keep it within that 11.5-point margin thanks to the top-end talent and depth throughout.

Top pick: SA Spurs +11.5 (-115)