Game Preview: Washington State @ USC
Former Pac-12 rivals meet again Sunday night in Los Angeles when Washington State travels south to face USC in a nonconference matchup. The Trojans are in their second season as a Big Ten member, while the Cougars have spent the year navigating life in the West Coast Conference after the Pac-12’s pause. USC enters at 9-1, trying to stabilize its rotation amid injuries, while Washington State is searching for answers after a four-game skid. Early betting markets reflect a wide gap in efficiency and scoring potential, with USC listed as a double-digit favorite and the total elevated due to the Trojans’ pace. This matchup marks the 132nd meeting between the programs and the first since February 2024, when both were still conference foes. The Trojans’ ability to impose tempo at home will be central to the betting outlook. Fans tracking recent results can find context on the college basketball landscape through the college basketball championship odds.
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Odds and Key Information
USC opened as a home favorite in the -13 to -15 range, with the total set near 156. Early market movement has leaned slightly toward USC, driven by Washington State’s recent offensive drought and defensive inefficiency. The total has remained steady, suggesting oddsmakers expect USC to dictate pace regardless of the Cougars’ scoring struggles.
One key analytical observation is the contrast in shot creation. USC ranks among the nation’s top 20 in scoring at 89.5 points per game, while Washington State sits outside the top 190 and has failed to reach 65 points in three straight contests. From a coaching perspective, USC has emphasized rediscovering its offensive and defensive identity amid injuries, while Washington State’s staff has focused on ball security and rebounding after turnover-heavy losses.
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Washington State Outlook
Washington State arrives in Los Angeles in the midst of a difficult stretch that began at the Maui Invitational. Losses to Arizona State and Seton Hall were followed by defeats at Bradley and at home against Nevada, exposing persistent issues on both ends of the floor.
Offensively, the Cougars have struggled to generate efficient looks. They rank No. 199 nationally in scoring offense and have been plagued by turnovers, committing 20 at Bradley and failing to protect the defensive glass against Nevada. Those mistakes have limited transition opportunities and forced Washington State into half-court possessions that have not produced consistent results.
Defensively, the problems are more pronounced. Allowing nearly 80 points per game places the Cougars near the bottom nationally, and opponents have exploited breakdowns both at the rim and on the perimeter. Against a USC team that thrives in space and pushes tempo, Washington State will need to slow the game and value every possession to avoid falling behind early.
Head coach David Riley has stressed growth through adversity, but the margin for error in this matchup is slim. Without significant improvement in ball security and defensive rebounding, Washington State risks another lopsided result.
USC Outlook
USC has been one of the more explosive offenses in the country, but recent injuries have forced Eric Musselman to adjust on the fly. Rodney Rice’s absence looms largest, as he was averaging over 20 points and six assists before a shoulder injury sidelined him. Amarion Dickerson and Alijah Arenas are also unavailable, leaving USC thin in key rotation spots.
Despite those challenges, the Trojans responded well in a road win at San Diego, using an 18-2 second-half run to flip the game. Chad Baker-Mazara has emerged as the primary offensive engine, averaging 21.9 points per game and contributing across the stat sheet. His ability to score at all three levels has allowed USC to maintain offensive efficiency even with a shuffled lineup.
Musselman’s willingness to tweak the starting five has kept opponents guessing, with eight different Trojans making at least one start this season. That flexibility could be critical against Washington State’s struggling defense. The Trojans’ one concern is consistency at home, highlighted by a Dec. 6 loss to Washington in which they squandered a large halftime lead.
Defensively, USC has emphasized returning to its identity, applying pressure and forcing opponents into mistakes. Against a Cougars team prone to turnovers, that approach could create separation quickly.
Key Matchup Table
Key FactorAdvantageOffensive efficiencyUSCDefensive reliabilityUSCTurnover marginUSCDepth and rotationUSCRecent momentumUSC
Betting Trends
USC has been reliable as a favorite against teams with subpar defensive metrics, particularly when playing at home. The Trojans’ games have leaned over when they control tempo and generate transition scoring.
Washington State has struggled to cover during its four-game skid, especially as an underdog of double digits. Unders have cashed recently for the Cougars due to their offensive inefficiency, though opponent scoring has still pushed totals upward.
This matchup pits one of the nation’s faster-paced offenses against one of the weaker scoring defenses, a combination that often favors the favorite. Bettors looking for broader context can compare lines and trends on the college basketball odds page and daily projections on the college basketball picks page.
The Lean
This game sets up cleanly for USC. Even with injuries, the Trojans’ offensive firepower and defensive pressure present problems Washington State has not shown the ability to solve. The Cougars’ recent struggles protecting the ball and defending the glass play directly into USC’s strengths.
From a betting perspective, laying the points with USC is justified given the efficiency gap and home-court edge. The total leans over, as USC should approach or exceed its season scoring average, even if Washington State contributes modestly.
For ongoing matchup analysis and conference-wide context, follow coverage on the NCAAB previews page.
Projected Final Score: USC 92, Washington State 74
Best Spread Pick: USC -14
Total Lean: Over 156
Why You Need Expert Picks
Nonconference games between former rivals can create misleading narratives based on history rather than current form. Expert analysis helps separate emotional angles from matchup realities. ScoresAndStats provides transparent tracking through its Handicappers Leaderboard, allowing bettors to evaluate performance consistency on the college basketball picks hub.
Identifying when offensive efficiency gaps outweigh injury concerns is critical in college basketball betting. Resources like the expert betting guide sharpen that evaluation, while added accountability from handicappers site reviews helps bettors decide whose projections to trust.
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