Welcome to the second trimester of the NBA season!

Say what you will about the NBA Cup, but it affords players and teams some much-needed rest. (If you think it’s too early for rest, take another look at the growing list of injuries league-wide!) While the first trimester feels like a race — frontrunners racing to establish supremacy; also-rans racing to exceed expectations; lottery teams racing towards the bottom of the standings — the second trimester is about jostling for positions and resetting expectations.

The Toronto Raptors fall into the second category of teams that surprised. Granted, they’ve fallen down to earth in December, but the team has shown enough to prove that there is a formula for success. Two seasons of losing and rebuilding have reaped some beautiful fruit (when everyone’s healthy).

With the team inching back towards full health, it will be interesting to see how Toronto fares after the NBA Cup break in reestablishing their place in the Eastern Conference pecking order.

Speaking of overachievers, the Miami Heat have also turned heads to start the season. Miami has held opponents to 51.9% eFG, which ranks 2nd in the NBA (essentially 1st since OKC are from a different planet). The Heat’s defense ranks 1st in opponents’ FG % from long-mid-range and non-corner threes.

Miami has done all of this despite losing Kyle Anderson, Duncan Robinson, Kevin Love, and Haywood Highsmith during the offseason. They were also without Tyler Herro for the first 17 games of the season.

In classic Spoelstra fashion, he’s squeezed every positive attribute out of his players. Jaime Jaquez is averaging 15.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. Only 19 others are averaging at least 15/5/5, but Jaquez is the only one doing so off the bench. Miami rosters a Center who is 9th in rebounds per game, 12th in blocks per game, and 6th in defensive rating. You’re absolutely correct in guessing…..Kel’el Ware. Within the top 20 scorers in the league, only 5 players are averaging at least 50% from the field and 40% from three: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Anthony Edwards, Jamal Murray, and Norm Powell(!).

In another universe, this would have been played in Las Vegas with a spot in the NBA Cup Finals on the line. It’s probably the same universe where the Raptors and Heat battled for the 2020 Eastern Conference Championship. (What? No, I’m still not living in the past!).

Fun fact that may only interest me

Since taking over as Head Coach in 2008, Erik Spoelstra has led the Miami Heat to the NBA Finals six(!) times, winning twice. His teams have had a positive defensive rating — better than league average — in 17 of his 18 seasons (including this year).

As part of the NBA’s 75th Anniversary, Spoelstra was named as one of the top 15 coaches of all-time. Players and coaches alike revere him as the best coach in the league.

Spoelstra has never won Coach of the Year.

Bonus fact: 4 other coaches from the top 15 list have also never won Coach of the Year (Chuck Daly, KC Jones, Jack Ramsay, and Jerry Sloan). What an odd award.

The Raptors are 0-5 against teams currently ranked in the top 10 offensively and 3-2 against teams currently ranked in the top 10 defensively. Framed differently, Toronto has not defeated any team (outside of Cleveland) that is currently in the top 10 offensively or defensively. Miami is on the cusp of being top 10 offensively (12th) and very much entrenched as an elite defense (4th).

Toronto has lost each of the last four visits to Miami by double-digits, and have lost five of the last six meetings overall. The Heat get the win while covering the -5.5 spread.

December 18 @ Milwaukee Bucks

You know it’s a bad season when Darvin Ham and Taurean Prince lose in the NBA Cup! The pair had famously gone undefeated en route to NBA Cup titles with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2023 and with these Bucks last season. Their invincibility carried on for two more games this season until falling to Miami and New York and, subsequently, bowing out of the NBA Cup.

On December 4th, Giannis Antetokounmpo was diagnosed with a right calf strain and sidelined for two to four weeks. Last week was a roller coaster of emotions as the Bucks notched an impressive victory over the Celtics, but followed by an absolute dud in getting routed by the Nets. Whether or not Antetokounmpo is in the lineup, there’s no reason Milwaukee should be losing by 42 points to the Brooklyn Nets.

Doc Rivers’ team is currently 11-16 and clinging to the final play-in spot. With over $60 million in dead money going to Damian Lillard and Vasilije Micic, as well as having only one tradeable draft pick for this year’s trade deadline, the writing should be on the wall to finally trade Giannis.

Fun fact that may only interest me

In 2013, Bobby Portis Jr. won Mr. Basketball of Arkansas.

First of all, that title sounds 100 times cooler than winning the John Wooden Award for best collegiate player! Maybe it’s because I’m picturing a bunch of basketball players on stage like a Miss America pageant, but claiming the title of your favourite sport in your home state has got to feel like the ultimate honour. (Excuse me while I nominate myself for Mr. Mini Sudoku of Ontario)

Portis would go on to play 2 seasons with the University of Arkansas before being drafted by the Chicago Bulls.

Other notable players to win Mr. Basketball of Arkansas and play for the Razorbacks: Joe Johnson, Ronnie Brewer, Daniel Gafford, Isaiah Joe, and Jaylin Williams.

Toronto had lost the previous 4 matchups against the Bucks before routing Milwaukee by 28 in the last matchup. This should be easier sledding with Giannis out. While there’s a possibility the Bucks surprise the Raptors like they did the Celtics last week, Toronto is healthier and desperate to get back to winning basketball. Toronto wins and covers the -1.5 spread.

December 20 vs. Boston Celtics

The Raptors desperately need this game. While it’s a home game, it’s also the third of six consecutive games where the Raptors are playing in a different arena. After starting the week with games in Miami and Milwaukee, the Raptors follow up this home game against the Celtics with a three-game road trip that will see the team spend Christmas in Washington.

With trade season officially underway — players acquired during the summer can be traded on December 15th — there’s one Celtic being thrown into every fake trade by every Boston fanatic: Chris Boucher. 2025 has not been a great year for Slimm Duck. He fell out of Darko’s rotation, even as the team didn’t care for winning last year. He was left unsigned for six weeks until Boston claimed him with the veteran minimum. Boucher’s ability to knock down threes and play impactful defense should have been an easy fit in Joe Mazzulla’s system. Unfortunately, Chris is, again, on the outside looking in and not getting playing time. Hopefully, he lands somewhere because he deserves to be in the NBA!

Fun fact that may only interest me

Oh look, another Mr. Basketball winner!

Jaylen Brown won Mr. Basketball of Georgia in 2015.

Seriously, can we make this into a real pageant with sashes and crowns? I want to know how Jaylen Brown will cure worldwide hunger.

Actually, no, I don’t want to know.

As desperate as Toronto will be, the fact of the matter is that Boston has owned this rivalry. The Celtics have won 12 of the previous 13 matchups. Boston hoists threes (44.7% of their shot chart is from three; 2nd in frequency) as well as Toronto defends them (33.8%; 3rd in accuracy).

Part of the reason Boston lost to Milwaukee last week was because Sam Hauser shot 0-9 from three. Against Toronto, he will surely hit all 8 of his three-point attempts! Boston beats Toronto and covers the +2.5 spread.

December 21 @ Brooklyn Nets

Toronto plays the second game of a home-road back-to-back with a visit to the rising Nets. “Rising” may be a surprising was of describing a team with a 7-18 record, but Brooklyn already has more wins in December (4) than in October and November combined.

Leading the resurgence is Michael Porter Jr. In 4 of the 5 games he’s played in December, MPJ scored between 33 and 35 points, while draining at least 5 triples in each contest. The only game he didn’t reach those plateaus was the 42-point drubbing of Milwaukee where he wasn’t needed in the 4th quarter.

Fun fact that may only interest me

Yes, you guessed it. Mr. Basketball of Washington in 2017.

The following year, Kevin Porter Jr. won the honour. Did the trophy makers just re-print the ‘Porter Jr.’ name plate and revise the year?

Toronto has won 5 straight against Brooklyn, dating back to last season. Here are the scores for each of the last 3 contests:

November 23, 2025: 119-109November 11, 2025: 119-109April 6, 2025: 120-109

Am I going out on a limb by predicting a Raptors win and a cover of the -9.5 spread?

*I correctly predicted the Knicks to cover last week’s game but since there was no Rap-Up, I have no proof.