The Toledo Rockets (5-5) and No. 9 Michigan State Spartans (9-1) meet Tuesday at Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (Peacock). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA basketball odds around the Toledo vs. Michigan State odds and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions for the best bets.

Toledo dropped a second straight game Saturday, losing 75-70 to the Robert Morris Colonials. Toledo failed to cover as a 1-point road favorite as the Under (154) cashed. The Rockets forced 15 turnovers, but could not capitalize. G Sonny Wilson led Toledo with 21 points, and F Sean Craig added 15 points and 6 rebounds.

Michigan State responded well after its first loss of the season (66-60 to the now No. 3 Duke Blue Devils), earning its first Big Ten road win with a 76-72 victory Saturday over the Penn State Nittany Lions. The Spartans failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites as the Over (145.5) cashed. G Divine Ugochukwu scored a career-high 23 points. F Jaxon Kohler added his fifth double-double with 10 points and 12 rebounds, while C Carson Cooper chipped in 10 points.

MSU won the last meeting 81-68 in 2021 and leads the all-time series 3-1.

– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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Toledo at Michigan State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:05 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Toledo +2000 (bet $100 to win $2,000) | Michigan State -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Toledo +23.5 (-115) | Michigan State -23.5 (-105)Over/Under (O/U): 150.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Toledo at Michigan State picks and predictionsPrediction

Michigan State 82, Toledo 63

PASS.

I like the Spartans to get a rather easy victory on Tuesday night, but it won’t be a blowout like Vegas thinks. I’ll take my wager to the spread.

BET TOLEDO +23.5 (-115).

This Rockets team can really score, especially in the backcourt. Wilson can get his own shot, G Leroy Blyden shoots it at a high clip from deep, and G Kyler Vanderjagt gives them another option who isn’t afraid to let it fly. That kind of guard play matters when you’re catching a big number.

Michigan State just showed at Penn State that it can be sloppy at times, turning the ball over and letting teams hang around longer than they should. Even if the Spartans clean some of that up at home, I’m not convinced they run away from a Toledo offense that can score in bunches. The Rockets don’t need to win — they just need to stay competitive.

I expect Michigan State to control the paint and the glass, but Toledo’s shooting and ability to capitalize on mistakes should keep this closer than the line suggests. I’ll take Toledo to cover.

BET UNDER 150.5 (-105).

Michigan State home games keep trending low, and this spot fits again. The Spartans are 5-1 to the under at home and consistently slow games down against nonconference opponents. Tom Izzo leans into defense, not margin, in these matchups. Toledo protects the ball but should struggle to score in the half court. A controlled pace and limited transition chances point to the Under.

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