Alex Hunter provides his top betting analysis, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s NBA Cup final between the Knicks and Spurs.
The Knicks and Spurs meet Tuesday night in Las Vegas for the NBA Cup Final. On top of being crowned the NBA Cup champions, each player from the winning team will receive a $530,933 cash prize. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New York is favored by 2.5 points, and this game carries a total of O/U 234.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Knicks vs. Spurs preview, prediction
The Knicks did their job and defeated the Magic 132-120 in the NBA Cup semifinals this past Saturday. New York was a 4.5-point favorite for this game, and the victory marked the Knicks’ fifth in a row. The Spurs, on the other hand, were 11.5-point dogs for their semifinals matchup with the Thunder and San Antonio shocked the defending NBA champions with a 111-109 win, handing Oklahoma City just their second loss of the season.
It was an impressive win for the Spurs to say the least, and for the season, they now are 18-7 and rank eighth in net rating. One of the keys to San Antonio’s win over the Thunder was the return of Victor Wembanyama. The superstar had missed the previous 12 with a calf injury, and despite being limited to just 20 minutes off the bench in his return, Wembanyama posted 22 points, nine rebounds, two assists, two blocks and one steal while finishing a team-best +21 in the boxscore. While San Antonio impressively went 9-3 with Wembanyama sidelined for the last few weeks, his impact can’t be understated, as he leads the team in plus/minus this season and with him on the floor, the Spurs’ net rating is at an elite 10.7, which is 9.1 points better than with him off.
Wembanyama is having a career season, averaging 25.8 points, 12.6 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game while shooting 50% from the field, and after a very successful return in the semifinals, the big man should move back into San Antonio’s starting five tonight. While he is unlikely to see his 33.6 minutes per game average for the season, Wembanyama’s playing time should increase to around 25 minutes. Given he leads the Spurs with a huge 30% usage rate, Wembanyama’s presence is going to hurt the numbers of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell, but Wembanyama being healthy again makes San Antonio a serious threat, especially on the defensive end, and his defense will be crucial in slowing Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks tonight. With Wembanyama on the floor this season, the Spurs own a stellar 104.3 defensive rating.
On the other side of this matchup, the Knicks own an identical record to the Spurs at 18-7, but New York sits higher in net rating, ranking fourth. Jalen Brunson is having another excellent season, averaging 28.8 points and 6.4 assists per game, and Towns has been awesome as well, averaging a double-double of 22.4 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. Additionally, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby have been great. Anunoby continues to be the Knicks’ best defender and is leading the team in plus/minus, while Hart has been very efficient, shooting 51% from the field and stuffing the stat sheet on a nightly basis.
After bringing Hart off the bench to begin the season, New York moved the savvy veteran back into the starting lineup 10 games ago, and the move has paid major dividends. With the veteran starting during this stretch, the Knicks are 9-1 and rank second only to the Thunder in net rating. All in all, the Spurs and Knicks are both playing outstanding basketball right now, and this NBA Cup final should be a treat for NBA fans.
Knicks vs. Spurs pick, best bet
While the Spurs’ recent play is impressive, the Knicks are the hottest team in the NBA, and they are the much more experienced group than San Antonio. New York’s elite collection of wing defenders should bother Fox and Castle, and Wembanyama likely being somewhat limited again could be a big difference in this matchup.
The Knicks should win this NBA Cup final, and they are a strong bet to cover this small 2.5-point spread. This season, New York is a league-best 17-8-0 ATS.