Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for tonight’s matchup between the Thunder and the Clippers.

The Thunder are hosting the Clippers on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 17.5 points and this game carries a total of 222.5 points.

Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.

Thunder vs. Clippers preview, prediction

The Thunder were shocked by the Spurs in the NBA Cup semifinals this past Saturday, losing the game 111-109 after being 11.5-point favorites for the matchup. While disappointing, Oklahoma City was well overdue for a loss as winners of 16 straight games. This was just the Thunder’s second loss of the season and at 24-2, they own the best record in the NBA this season by a mile. Oklahoma City also leads the league in net rating and it’s not even close. The Thunder lead the way with a 16.4 net rating while the Rockets rank second at 9.7.

Rightfully so, this defending champion Oklahoma City team is heavily favorited to the NBA title for the second year in the row at +110 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having another brilliant season and is the favorite to win his second straight MVP with +125 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The guard is averaging 32.4 points and 6.4 assists per game while shooting a career-best 56% from the field, which is outstanding for a guard.

Chet Holmgren is also scoring a career-high 18.7 PPG and Jalen Williams has been excellent in his first seven games after missing the start of the season following off-season wrist surgery, averaging 17.3 points and 5.9 assists per game. Outside of this big three, the Thunder have a tremendous collection of role players that all defend well and this well oiled Oklahoma City team for the second consecutive season leads the NBA in defensive rating by a huge gap.

Scoring at an efficient rate against the Thunder is extremely difficult, especially when they are on their home floor, and the Clippers’ offense should struggle mightily tonight. Not just because this is the most challenging matchup in the league, but that their top scorer in James Harden (calf) is missing his second game of the season.

Los Angeles has been a disaster this season with a 6-20 record and ranking 25th in net rating, but one thing that has been decently consistent has been Harden’s offense, with the former MVP averaging 26 PPG, which is his highest scoring average since his 2020 season with the Rockets. Huge scoring performances from Harden have been the sole reason for multiple Clippers’ wins this season and with him off the floor, the team’s offense has been a complete mess with a terrible 102.3 offensive rating, which is a whopping 14.8 points worse than when he is on the court. In the lone other contest Harden has missed this season, Los Angeles only scored 102 points in a 13-point loss to the Suns.

With Harden sidelined, Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac will both take on large usage rates. Additionally, Bogdan Bogdanovic should see a bigger role, possibly as Harden’s replacement starter, which is one of the only good things the Clippers have going for them tonight, as Bogdanovic has been strong on defense this season and ranks second for the team in plus/minus.

Thunder vs. Clippers pick, best bet

The Harden-less Clippers don’t stand a chance against the Thunder tonight and Oklahoma City should cruise to an easy home win, especially with the team coming off a loss. This season, the Thunder are 12-0 at home with a league-best 19.4-point margin of victory and following their only other loss, Oklahoma City blew out the Kings by 31 points.

The Thunder being favored by 17.5 points is totally warranted tonight and they are a strong bet to cover. Over the last two seasons, Oklahoma City is a league-best 40-20-2 ATS at home.

Best Bet: Thunder -17.5 (-110)