The Nevada men’s basketball team hosts Boise State on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Boise State (8-3) at Nevada (8-3)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,546 capacity)
TV/Radio: Nevada Sports Net/95.5 FM
Online: NevadaSportsNet.com
Betting line: No line listed yet
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Even on the glass: Boise State has played elite defense – except for that season-opening loss to Hawaii Pacific – and a big reason for that has been its rebounding. The Broncos are plus-8.5 on the glass while allowing an NCAA-low 7.2 offensive rebounds per game. One other thing the Broncos do well is avoid fouls, limiting opponents to 18.5 free throws per game. Two of Nevada’s strong suits are offensive boards and getting to the foul line, so this is strength against strength. The Wolf Pack being even on the glass would be big as second-chance points are likely to be rare, although Nevada did crush Washington State, another elite defensive rebounding team, on the offensive glass earlier this month.
2. Elite ball pressure: Boise State added two major transfers this offseason in Georgetown center Drew Fielder and UCLA point guard Dylan Andrews. Fielder is leading the Broncos in scoring (14.4 ppg) and rebounding (5.4 rpg), so that’s been a nice addition. Andrews hasn’t found his rhythm in blue and orange. He’s averaging 11.3 points, 4.3 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game but shooting only 33.3 percent from the field and 31.9 percent from three. He’s also second in the Mountain West with 30 turnovers, with the Broncos’ overall turnover rate of 16.8 percent 167th in the nation. Boise State has elite size, but its ballhandling could be better. If Nevada applies elite ball pressure, it could have success forcing turnovers and slowing down a Broncos offense that hasn’t been as strong as their defense.
3. Clutch plays late: You can expect this to be a close game with both teams having plenty of experience in that department with Nevada 4-1 in games decided by six points or less and Boise State at 3-2 in those situations. In its most recent outing, Boise State led Saint Mary’s by 14 points with less than 5 minutes to play before nearly coughing up that lead with some late-game miscues, eventually winning by one. Nevada has been better in crunch time, although it’s been far from perfect, tightening games that could have been decided by more than six points Ultimately, these are pretty evenly matched teams – they’re nearly identical on offense – so this game should be decided in the waning moments.
Prediction
Boise State 73, Nevada 69: Boise State has won three of its last four games at Lawlor Events Center after a six-game losing streak in Reno. Both teams are playing their best basketball of the season with the biggest difference on paper being Boise State’s defense, which is ranked 19th nationally. The Broncos also have been more battle-tested, playing a top-35 non-conference schedule with four Quad 1 games thus far (Nevada has played one such game). With the Wolf Pack having the home-court edge, this one is close to a tossup. Nevada would love to snare a win before going to Colorado State for its second MW game and not wanting to start league play 0-2. Season record: 8-3
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.