NEW YORK — Having already experienced both sizzle and stumble, it has become clear that this could well be a season determined in the margins for the Miami Heat.
As in the margin between yet another trip to the play-in round — a fourth in a row — or something more substantive.
As in the margin of one more 3-pointer or one more rebound, elements that already have determined so many games this season for Erik Spoelstra’s team.
As in the margin of adding one more 3-point shooter or one more rebounder.
As in the margin of what to do about this entire Terry Rozier salary-cap dilemma that NBA Commissioner Adam Silver effectively put the issue back in the Heat’s hands during his media session at the the NBA Cup, when he essentially said the league would rule on potential Rozier salary-cap machinations if the need arose.
It could arise in one of two ways:
– The Heat attempt to waive Rozier by that Jan. 7 guarantee deadline in order to free his non-guaranteed money, money which would be enough to replace him on the roster with a player at a pro-rated share of the veteran minimum and still keep the Heat below the punitive luxury tax.
– The Heat keep Rozier’s money on the books beyond Jan. 7, with an eye on including his entire $26.6 million 2025-26 salary as a cap-matching tool in a major trade by the Feb. 5 NBA trading deadline.
Understand, none of that also could happen, with it as simple as the Heat regain their early-season mojo, ride it out, allow Rozier’s contract to expire at season’s end, and then see if his salary eventually winds up being recouped if he is ruled ineligible because of the FBI gambling investigation.
That latter approach in many ways would be un-Heat-like, a team that has been as crafty, clever and creative as few others when it comes to maximizing cap twists and turns.
Which brings it back to the debate of margins or massive.
On one hand, the notion of Pat Riley and whales and swings for the fences is you think big, bigger, biggest, amass assets for singular all-in moves, such as the Shaquille O’Neal trade in 2004, the cap space stored for the 2010 free-agency haul with LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, or even the assets cobbled together for Jimmy Butler in 2019.
In that regard, Rozier’s expiring salary arguably should be retained intact, until the trade deadline, to see if something big, something requiring $26.6 million in cap ballast can be utilized.
Recall, when the Heat initially acquired Kyle Lowry in 2021 free agency, the transaction was completed with a tacit acceptance that Lowry likely would be moved by the final year of that three-year, $85 million contract, a cap asset to put into play for future gain.
That final year was utilized to acquire Rozier in January 2024.
Say what you want about the Rozier deal now, but few were questioning at the time moving off Lowry’s money and languid play for Rozier (now, the tossing in of a still-owed first-round pick is another story).
To that end, if the Heat now can turn all of Rozier’s contract-ending salary into something tangible (Hello, Giannis?), then a previous trade that went sideways can be turned into a course correction for the second time.
Or . . .
Or, because this team, for better or worse, for play-in or worse, lives in the moment, by moving off the guaranteed portion of Rozier’s salary by that Jan. 7 deadline, the Heat can nominally upgrade what already is in place by taking Rozier’s non-guaranteed $1.6 million and turning it into another roster component. (Whether the Heat can recoup Rozier’s salary after the fact then would be left to an NBA arbitrator and the courts.)
Yes, a 14th or 15th man rarely turns a season. And if a 14th or 15th man can turn a season, then what exactly is that season?
But then look at this season, or even this past week, with players such as Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Pelle Larsson and Nikola Jovic were ailing. Jamir Young coming through that door in the loss to the Sacramento Kings certainly wasn’t the answer earlier this month.
Then think about one more Alec Burks 3-pointer in those dying moments in the NBA Cup loss to the Orlando Magic.
Or one more defensive rebound secured to prevent one more Scottie Barnes second-chance point in this past week’s loss to the Toronto Raptors.
On one hand, an argument could be made that another veteran brought in means another moment of playing time lost for a prospect, be it Larsson or Kel’el Ware or perhaps, now, even Kasparas Jakucionis.
But then look at the standings, at the fine line between No. 3 and No. 9 in the East.
The margins matter.
So does the idle Rozier money sitting on the Heat’s cap.
It is time to make a decision.
Terry Rozier is in the Heat’s past tense, likely the NBA’s past tense.
Make the NBA act.
Force the league’s hand.
More is needed, as the stumble after the sizzle has shown.
IN THE LANE
NOT TOO SHABBY: Fresh off their win in the NBA Cup, the New York Knicks recognize the challenge ahead in what really matters, which includes perspective that the East will be a challenge unto itself this season. “The West, obviously they have great teams. What they’ve been able to do obviously since I’ve been alive, it’s been a lot of West-dominated teams,” Knicks guard Jalen Brunson said during his team’s time in Las Vegas. “But the conversation about the East being wide open, I’m not a fan of that. I think there’s too many great teams and great players. Regardless of who’s out, they’re still competing. You don’t take anyone lightly. You don’t take anyone for granted. You go out there and do what you’ve got to do every single night. The East is a lot better than people think, and it’s a grind every night.” The Knicks host the Heat on Sunday night, in the Heat’s final visit of the season to Madison Square Garden.
ALSO NOTED: Before falling to New York in the championship game of the NBA Cup, San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama offered an interesting contrast between the Knicks and Heat. of the Knicks, he said, “They don’t play a brand of basketball as sophisticated as the Miami Heat or the Thunder. But their physicality is top in the league, so it’s a very tough team to play against.” In many ways, it shows just how much has changed with the Heat, that they no longer are viewed as the ultimate physicality touchstone.
ACTUALLY, THERE IS: During his media session at the NBA Cup, Commissioner Adam Silver took on the issue of player absences — to a degree, “By the way,” he said, “this is not a problem unique to the NBA. It’s tremendously frustrating in all sports to see star players in particular go down, but of course any player.” He then added, “We’re very focused on it. There’s no amount of money we’re not willing to invest in it to make those investments to see if there’s better resources out there.” Actually, it’s not money in, for training techniques and sports medicine, it’s money out – fewer games. Of which there was no mention. So far this season, there have been Heat games where among the missing opponents included Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Brunson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Donovan Mitchell, Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, Anthony Davis and a list that goes on and on.
HOLIDAY CHEER: In the spirit of the season, on Monday the Udonis Haslem Foundation will be inviting 100 preselected students to a $200 Walmart shopping spree and theme park fun at Christmas Wonderland. Each year the former Heat captain identifies students from Miami-Dade and Broward County schools who have excelled academically despite various sociodemographic factors. The event is in honor of Barbara Wooten, the Foundation’s co-founder and Udonis Haslem’s late stepmother. “It’s a chance to inspire,” said Haslem, who maintains a significant local profile even as his national profile expands across the broadcast realm.
MORE HELP: Monday also is the deadline for entry into an online charity auction offering fans the chance to bid on two Heat experiences, with proceeds benefiting Project Medishare for Haiti, a nonprofit providing lifesaving healthcare to over 100,000 people in Haiti. The auctions are for “Be a Heat Player for a Day” and “Be in the Heat Player Intro Video.” Details and bidding are available at www.charitybuzz.com/support/project-medishare.
NUMBER
1. 3-pointer from needed for Tyler Herro to join Duncan Robinson as the only players over the Heat’s 38 seasons with 1,000 or more. Robinson leads the list at 1,202. Herro is at 999, with Tim Hardaway third at 806, those the only three with at least 800. As a matter of perspective, Robinson leads the Heat in all-time missed 3-pointers, at 3,026, with Herro second at 2,611.