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When a particular sport involves a long season, handicappers must adjust on the fly when a team undergoes personnel changes or demonstrates noticeable improvement or regression. 

The New Orleans Pelicans fit that scenario. 

Since James Borrego took over for the fired Willie Green as interim head coach, the Pelicans have shown more competency. Their overall record is just 4-12 under Borrego but they have covered the point spread in 12 of those 16 games. 

Among many things, the point spread measures performance against expectations. Most teams should have a record around .500 so a 12-4 mark screams of an NBA team that is undervalued. 

New Orleans hosts the Indiana Pacers on Saturday. The Pelicans should be favored around 2.5 points.

Pascal Siakam #43 of the Indiana Pacers dribbles the ball during the game against the Philadelphia 76ers on December 12, 2025 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.Pascal Siakam #43 of the Indiana Pacers dribbles the ball during the game against the Philadelphia 76ers on December 12, 2025 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NBAE via Getty Images

The Pelicans just upset the Houston Rockets on Thursday as 9.5-point home underdogs for their third straight win. This team has battled numerous injuries, but they are a decent squad when near full strength. 

Indiana has also been hit hard by the injury bug, but they have a much lower ceiling at full strength. Pascal Siakam is a solid player but is incredibly inconsistent. His supporting cast of Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin each has his moments but ultimately this is a roster that lacks punch. 

Betting on the NBA?

Indy ranks dead last in offensive efficiency and 11th worst in defensive efficiency. While injuries have played a role in their struggles, those stats are the real reason the Pacers are just 6-21 this season. 

I have an 82-71-2 record against the spread (ATS) in this Post sports section. My next play is the Pelicans -2.5 points Saturday against the Pacers.

The Play: Pelicans -2.5 (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.