The 15-13 Phoenix Suns going in the wrong direction both statistically and record-wise is more than understandable.
They have been performing above their talent class and are currently going through the schedule trial of the season, all while consistent injury problems keep lingering.
Phoenix has dropped seven of its last 11 games, and if we count a Nov. 16 defeat to the Atlanta Hawks as the beginning of the schedule’s intensity reaching its peak, it’s a 7-8 record.
All told, when you look at who some of these losses are to, like Houston and Oklahoma City, not bad!
But within all these games have been patterns suggesting regression. And it’s subjective at this point to decide how much of it is due to the strength of the opponent, injuries or just plain old regression.
A handful of downward statistical trends spotlight this, inside the margins Phoenix was previously winning to, well, win.
Using that Nov. 16 date and the 15-game sample size, the Suns since then are second in the NBA in opposing turnover rate and 10th in offensive rebounding percentage, per Cleaning the Glass. The rebounding is down a bit but the giveaways are still getting forced. No alarms yet.
On the other side of the equation, though, Phoenix across that time is 26th in its own turnover percentage and is giving up the fifth-worst offensive rebounding rate.
Those numbers were manageable prior to the last five weeks, allowing the Suns’ strengths to win them the nitty-gritty of the possession battle.
That is no longer the case.
Sprinkle on the usual problems with getting to the free-throw line and fouling that have sustained over this stretch for season-long rankings of 27th in free-throw rate and 23rd in the opponent’s, and you’ve got an issue.
Hot 3-point shooting to begin the year was due to regress in some form.
Phoenix had a nine-game close before that Nov. 16 loss to Atlanta shooting 41% on 39 attempts per game. Looking at the 15 games since, the Suns have shot 34% from deep, which is tied for 24th leaguewide in that span. It’s 36.7 attempts, which sits 15th.
That can’t happen for this offense, which ranks 28th since that 15-game spurt began.
The Suns on the season overall are 28th in rim frequency. We’ve seen previous teams make up for this due to excellent efficiency elsewhere and a great defense. But the third-best team in midrange rate is at a just-solid 45.2% knockdown rate (ninth overall) and the defense has now dropped to an again just-solid 12th.
That’s where the eventual return of Jalen Green can really help, both with more shots at the rim and another midrange threat. Right now, it’s on the backs of Devin Booker (55% of his shots) and Dillon Brooks (47%). They need another bucket-getter.
Grayson Allen has been out for 10 of these last 15 games as well. That’s going to hurt the 3-point shooting numbers and offense’s overall flow, too.
Green’s six-week reevaluation timeline ends on Tuesday. Allen’s initial injury was a quad contusion before a one-game illness absence, and he is now dealing with a sore right knee that head coach Jordan Ott does not see as a serious ailment.
The schedule is about to lighten up a bit, but maybe not as much as expected.
Following Tuesday’s matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers, it’s meetings with some of the bottom-dwellers of the standings like New Orleans, Washington and Sacramento. New Orleans, however, has won four straight.
And the next month still includes more matchups with the Rockets and Thunder, as well as two against the New York Knicks and a showdown with the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons. A few fellow teams fluttering around .500 like Cleveland, Miami and Memphis are in there as well.
Speaking of the East, the biggest challenge of all will be the amount of time away from home. It’s road trips consisting of four, two and six games for a stretch that totals 12 of 16 on the road once the Suns finish up with the Lakers on Tuesday.
After that, the Suns will be home for a staggering 16 of their next 19 contests, beginning on Jan. 25. We’ll see what shape the team is in then and if they’re still looking strong in pursuit of top-eight aspirations in the conference standings.
