Is the Heat offense beginning to be their biggest problem? - Hot Hot Hoops

The Miami Heat’s offense has regressed since the start of December. (Mandatory Credit: Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Over a long, grueling 82-game season, there will be peaks and valleys for all 82 teams, to varying degrees. For the Miami Heat, it’s been a tale of two starts.

Through the first 21 games, the Heat were off to a world-beating 14-7 start. Simply, they were playing at a breakneck pace with an above-average minus arguably their best offensive player for the first 17 games. Routinely, they were scoring 120, 130 and, on some nights, 140-plus points with relative ease, while also playing the toughest part of their schedule.

However, in the eight games since, they’ve done more than just crash down to Earth, piercing the planet’s foremost layer.

In the eight games since, Miami is just averaging 109.4 points per game (compared to 124.3 beforehand!) with the league’s fifth-worst offensive efficiency (No. 11 beforehand). Is it time to be concerned? Bleacher Report’s Grant Hughes reveals it could be the team’s biggest problem.

“In eliminating screens, mandating a breakneck pace and prioritizing a drive-and-cut attack rife with off-ball shifting, it feels like the Heat are entering unexplored territory—or at least checking it out more thoroughly than the Grizzlies did a year ago,” Hughes wrote.

“Tactical shifts like this don’t come around often. The NBA was defined by the pick-and-roll for almost 20 years, and this departure could mark the beginning of a new era.

“Or—and this is where the problem comes in—Miami’s offense might fall completely flat in the playoffs and wind up a footnote in a chapter of NBA history devoted to wild ideas that look ridiculous in hindsight.”

The Miami Heat’s offense has regressed after fast start:

Coming off their third-straight season as a bottom-third unit, change was required this offseason. A big part of that was revving up a once-dormant pace, and that was quite fruitful for the first 21 or so games.

Noah LaRoche’s offense that the Heat implemented this offseason essentially eliminated ball screens from their offense, emphasizing more space and ball movement in the halfcourt. The Heat were zagging when the rest of the NBA was zigging.

That said, teams have seemingly adjusted.

Teams have walled off the paint, making the Heat — a middle-of-the-pack team in 3-point frequency with a limited amount of volume shooting — beat them from anywhere else. And it’s worked. Since the start of December, Miami is 21st in rim frequency — even though they’re getting within ~15 feet quite frequently.

It also converted rim 2s or short 2s at a high clip, either. They rank No. 26 and 15 in rim and short 2PT efficiency since Dec. 1, according to Cleaning The Glass. Not to mention, they are No. 18 in 3-point shooting (and No. 24 in 3PAr) over that stretch, thereby dragging their effective field goal percentage to a measly 52.3 percent, the league’s sixth-worst mark.

Their pace has slowed down from 106.1 to 101.5, too, a stark difference, leading to some of the inefficiencies offensively. They were consistently creating — and exploiting — advantages at the start of the season. They were also getting more stops. None of that has been the case, with the Heat ranking No. 17 in defense over that span.

Every team will have a funk; the Miami Heat are in a major funk. It’s time to counter the counter! After all, this is an 82-game heavyweight fight.

Is the Heat offense beginning to be their biggest problem? – Hot Hot Hoops

Tags: