Two teams trending in opposite directions this season will meet on Tuesday, Dec. 23 when the Denver Nuggets head to the Lone Star State to face the Dallas Mavericks. Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back set, with Denver beating the Utah Jazz on Monday while the Mavericks fell to the New Orleans Pelicans. Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis both played big minutes in Monday’s game, so we’ll see if they are rested for this contest. On Denver’s side, everyone should be in aside from Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun.

The Nuggets have won eight of their last 10 and are an impressive 12-2 on the road this season, anchored by Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Jokic is putting together another MVP-level campaign while Murray’s efficiency has him poised to make his first All-Star appearance. The Mavericks have been in a funk after trading Luka Doncic and firing general manager Nico Harrison, which means players like Davis and sharpshooter Klay Thompson could be on the move at the trade deadline. For now, Thompson is going to be in the lineup, and that means we can use him when building a same-game parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s game.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks NBA same-game parlay picksKlay Thompson Under 11.5 pointsMavericks +6.5Under 235.5 

Final odds at DraftKings: +490 (wager $100 to win $490)

Klay Thompson Under 11.5 points

Thompson has struggled mightily to begin this season, and part of that is his role fluctuating. He was a starter before moving to the bench, and while he’s coming off a strong 20-point showing against New Orleans, he’s gone Under this line in three of the last six games, with two of his Overs coming at 12 points. The SportsLine Projection Model has him at 8.0 points for Tuesday’s clash.

Mavericks +6.5

This is a tough matchup defensively for Dallas, especially if Davis doesn’t play due to load management. However, the Mavericks are seventh in defensive rating this season and can make life difficult for Jokic in the paint. Dallas covers the spread in 57% of model simulations. Even though there are some tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back set, the home crowd might be enough for some late Mavericks points to cover here.

Under 235.5

Despite the model leaning to the Over, which hits in 50.7% of simulations, I believe the Under offers more value. Even though the Nuggets are first in offensive rating and points per game, the Mavericks do have a solid defense and will be at home. Throw in the back-to-back set and the potential for star players to rest ahead of Christmas Day games and the Under is in play.

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