Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Knicks at Timberwolves on Tuesday.

Exactly one week ago, the New York Knicks claimed their first piece of silverware since the 1973 NBA Finals, defeating the San Antonio Spurs in the final of the Emirates NBA Cup. New York refused to put a banner up at Madison Square Garden to celebrate the triumph, claiming that it was focused on winning the 2026 NBA Finals instead.

There are few better tests of the Knicks’ championship mettle than a road game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have advanced to the Western Conference Finals in each of the last two seasons. The teams will meet for the second and final time tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Target Center.

New York isn’t fully healthy, sitting OG Anunoby (ankle), Jalen Brunson (ankle), and Guerschon Yabusele (illness) as it prepares for a Christmas Day game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Minnesota, meanwhile, should have its entire rotation available, with only Jaden McDaniels (oblique) questionable.

Because of all of the injuries, the Timberwolves are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-278 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 229.5. The Knicks are +225 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s battle of conference finals losers and offer my prediction.

New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves preview, prediction

New York is one of the hottest teams in basketball, winning eight of its last 10 games and posting the league’s third-best net rating across that span in addition to its NBA Cup victory, though it would certainly not have beaten the Miami Heat on Sunday night without Brunson’s 47-point, eight-assist masterpiece. Still, the fact that the Knicks managed to win that game without Anunoby and with Karl-Anthony Towns scoring just two points bodes well for tonight. Josh Hart has been a revelation since re-entering the starting lineup (New York has gone 10-2 with the league’s second-best net rating in that span), and Mitchell Robinson turned the tide of the NBA Cup final with his 10 offensive rebounds. Both will be pivotal tonight.

Minnesota, meanwhile, picked up a signature win on Friday night by delivering the Oklahoma City Thunder their third loss of the season. The Timberwolves, too, are 8-2 across their last 10 games despite Anthony Edwards missing three games, though their net rating is a more pedestrian plus-4.8. Minnesota has had remarkable health and continuity — among its starting lineup, only Edwards has missed more than one game — and with Edwards’ three-level scoring, former Knick Julius Randle’s high-post playmaking, and Rudy Gobert’s elite rim protection, the Timberwolves have had roughly the same formula that has delivered back-to-back deep playoff runs.

Knicks at Timberwolves pick, best bet

New York has some experience playing without both Anunoby and Brunson. The pair both missed the team’s November 17 game against the Heat, in which Miles McBride scored 25 points to lead the team to a two-point defeat despite Miami’s hot three-point shooting. They also both sat out the 2024-25 season finale, when Landry Shamet’s 29 points helped the Knicks beat the Brooklyn Nets. It’ll be tougher tonight, with Shamet and McBride both sidelined with long-term injuries in addition to the star duo, but New York is deep: even without Brunson, its plus-5.5 net rating would be the league’s eighth-best. Tyler Kolek and Jordan Clarkson were unsung heroes in the Knicks’ NBA Cup win, and they also beat the Indiana Pacers two nights later despite starting deep bench pieces in Ariel Hukporti and Mohamed Diawara.

Kolek and Clarkson will surely be critical assets tonight, but Towns should be New York’s most important player. During Brunson’s two-game absence earlier this season, he averaged 30.5 points and 13.0 rebounds per game, and during Anunoby’s nine-game stint on the sidelines, he put up 23.9 points and 11.3 boards per game, so he should be more than capable of handling a larger load. He won’t necessarily have it easy — this season, Minnesota has allowed the third-lowest field goal percentage in the restricted area, thanks to Gobert, and it has also allowed the second-fewest catch-and-shoot threes — but in his lone road game against the Timberwolves, he had a 32-point, 20-rebound masterpiece.

Three-point shooting will be the key for Minnesota, given that the Knicks have allowed the third-most catch-and-shoot looks and the seventh-most wide-open tries this season. It’s unlikely that the Timberwolves will be able to get much going in the paint, either, as New York has limited opponents to the fourth-lowest percentage in the restricted area, and that’s not something that either of the Knicks’ absences should affect, given that Brunson and Anunoby have the worst rim-protecting numbers in the team’s rotation.

Thankfully for Minnesota, it has excellent shooters, ranking sixth in field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot threes and ninth in wide-open threes. The Timberwolves have also shot better than New York from above the break and from the restricted area, but the Knicks have shot better everywhere else. New York might not shoot quite as well without Anunoby and Brunson, but among Knicks with at least 300 minutes played this season, they rank second- and third-to-last in true shooting percentage.

Rebounding will also be critical, especially in the minutes that Gobert takes the floor. This season, the teams rank fifth (New York) and 12th (Minnesota) in rebounding percentage, and both rank in the top 10 in opponent second chance points, with the Timberwolves slotting in sixth and the Knicks 10th. New York has done a better job taking care of the ball but worse at generating turnovers, and it might struggle to take care of the ball tonight with the steady-handed Brunson absent. Minnesota draws more fouls, and it should be whistled fewer times tonight without Brunson, who ranks 17th in free throw attempts per game. Home court advantage amounts to 15.9 points per 100 possessions in the Timberwolves’ favor.

With such an extreme home-court advantage swing and two of the Knicks’ top four scorers out, I’m not willing to pick them on the Moneyline, but the NBA Cup final win demonstrated that New York doesn’t struggle with depth as it has in past seasons. Minnesota has been extremely poor on the boards and on defense in the 17 minutes per game that Gobert is on the bench, and between Towns and Robinson, the Knicks have the personnel to capitalize on the Timberwolves’ Achilles heel. A fully-healthy New York is as good or better in almost every facet of basketball, so its bench pieces should be enough to keep the game competitive.

Best bet: New York Knicks +7.5 (-115)