Denver has been one of the NBA’s best road teams this season, and that trend directly shapes our Nuggets vs. Mavericks Predictions, which lean toward Denver control, a slower pace, and player props built around Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray.
*Sports betting is unpredictable, and these picks are suggestions based on matchup analysis rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks NBA Matchup Overview: Pace, Form, and Availability
Denver enters this game with a 21–7 record and has won eight of its last ten games, including a 135–112 win over Utah on December 22. The Nuggets have been exceptional away from home, posting a 12–2 road record while leading the league in scoring at 125.1 points per game. Nikola Jokić continues to drive everything offensively, averaging a triple-double and ranking among league leaders in rebounds, assists, and efficiency.
Dallas sits at 11–19 and has struggled with consistency, losing two straight games, though it has won four consecutive home games. The Mavericks rank just 25th in scoring but remain competitive defensively, sitting eighth in Defensive Rating. Injuries heavily impact their rotation, with Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II out for the season and Cooper Flagg listed as questionable. Denver lost to Dallas earlier this month, but their current form and road dominance shift the balance in their favor.
Denver Nuggets Moneyline
Denver has been one of the most reliable teams in the league, especially on the road. A 12–2 away record reflects strong execution regardless of venue. Even with Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun sidelined, the Nuggets continue to function smoothly through Jokić, while Jamal Murray provides secondary scoring and shot creation. Dallas lacks late-game offense without Irving, which makes it difficult to close games against elite opponents.
Under 238.5 Total Points
Despite Denver’s top-ranked offense, this matchup points toward a controlled pace. Dallas plays fast, but Denver prefers a slower tempo that allows Jokić to operate in the half court. The Mavericks rank 25th in scoring and often rely on isolation sets that shorten possessions. With Dallas leaning on defense to stay competitive, the total of 238.5 leaves room for this game to finish under even if Denver scores efficiently.
Nikola Jokić to Record a Triple-Double
Jokić remains the most versatile player in the league, and this matchup encourages a balanced stat line. Dallas will likely send extra help after its earlier win, opening passing lanes and boosting assist chances. His rebounding floor stays high, and his scoring usage increases with Gordon out. A triple-double aligns better with his role than isolating a single stat.
Jamal Murray Over 3.5 Rebounds
This prop offers lower variance than a points-based bet. Murray logs heavy minutes and benefits from Dallas’ faster pace, which creates additional rebounding chances. With Denver missing rotation players, Murray stays involved on both ends and often helps secure defensive boards. Needing only four rebounds makes this a realistic and efficient player props option among the best NBA bets tonight.