Both the Houston Rockets (-3.5, -110) and Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5, -110) enter their Christmas Day matchup on respective two-game losing streaks, with just 1.5 games separating the two in the Western Conference playoff picture. Houston, in particular, has dropped four of its last five, and it hasn’t defeated Los Angeles on the road since Feb. 6, 2020.

Here’s an expert pick and player prop for this showdown at Crypto.com Arena on December 25, including an OVER for what could very well be the final Christmas game of LeBron James’ legendary career. 

Rockets vs. Lakers Odds Tonight

Matchup: Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers, 5 p.m. ET

TeamSpreadMoneyTotalHouston Rockets-3.5 (-110)-172O 228.5 (-110)Los Angeles Lakers+3.5 (-110)+144U 228.5 (-110)

Odds as of December 24, 2025 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Rockets vs. Lakers Expert Picks TonightLos Angeles Lakers ML (+144), OVER 228.5 Points (-110)

The Rockets certainly can’t wait for their ongoing six-game road trip to come to an end considering Thursday will be the team’s sixth game in 10 days. Of the aforementioned four losses, three ended up needing another five minutes of overtime, and the latest was a 20-point blowout at the hands of the Los Angeles Clippers who were missing starting center Ivica Zubac. They’ve only covered the spread once in their last seven games, and that was by the most minuscule of margins as the 1.5-point favorites when defeating the Denver Nuggets by a score of 115-101 on Dec. 20. The six blown covers all came with Houston entering as a betting favorite of at least 7.5 points, as well, although it’s overall record ATS remains strong at 15-12, good enough for ninth in the Association. Nonetheless, the Rockets’ 27th-ranked defense over the last five games (122.3 points allowed per 100 possessions) is a massive drop from the 111 points per 100 possessions (2nd) they were giving up in 22 previous outings. Knowing a pair of games at the Toyota Center are just around the corner, these trends aren’t exactly encouraging for a team that could be looking past the Lakers on Thursday simply because of both mental and physical fatigue.

That’s fine with Los Angeles, though, who just played seven of it’s last eight on the road and now get five in a row in front of home fans where it’s 7-4. The purple and gold brigade haven’t been playing with a full deck of cards lately since James, Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, and Deandre Ayton have all missed at least one game over the last two weeks, but all are expected to be in uniform versus Houston, although Rui Hachimura’s status is up in the air after missing the last two games with a groin injury. Getting the Lakers at plus money is just incredible value understanding the Rockets’ recent struggles, paired with their ineptitude at beating Los Angeles on the road. 

In the totals market, all anyone needs to see is that the Lakers are a perfect 11-0 going OVER at Crypto.com Arena. Houston also leads the league with OVERs whenever on the road at 12-5, as well. Even though its defense has been fairly awful over the last five games, its offense has held strong at 119.5 points per 100 possessions (5th). Los Angeles is also 5-2 in OVER/UNDER on Christmas since James joined the team. 

Rockets vs. Lakers Prop Tonight LeBron James OVER 19.5 Points (-122 at DraftKings)

After a rough three-game run from Nov. 28 through Dec. 4 in which James averaged just 10.3 points and saw his now untouchable streak of consecutive games with double-digit scoring snapped, the 40-year-old pro has come unglued as of late by averaging 26.8 points and shooting 53.3 percent from the field over the last six games. That’s nearly identical to what James has produced on Christmas across his 23-year career, producing 26.7 points at just under a 50-percent clip. The Rockets have held the four-time champion to UNDER 20 points the last two times they’ve had a look at him, but this is the holiday season, and while James may wish to be at home with his family, for what many assume will be his last Christmas showcase, the King should be expected to deliver one more time like he’s Old Saint Nick. 

Rockets vs. Lakers Betting Trends Tonight

*All trends courtesy of Outlier

Kevin Durant has exceeded 4.5 rebounds in five-straight games on the road (6.6 rebounds/game average).Amen Thompson has exceeded 6.5 rebounds in 13 of his last 16 games on the road (8.4 rebounds/game average).LeBron James has failed to exceed 4.5 1Q points in seven of his last eight games at home (2.1 1Q points/game average).Jake LaRavia has failed to exceed 6.5 points in four of his last five games at home (3.2 points/game average).Â